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By Michael Shepherd - March 21, 2023
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📷 Barricades are set up near the courthouse ahead of former President Donald Trump's anticipated indictment  on Monday in New York City. (AP photo by Eduardo Munoz Alvarez)
Good morning from Augusta. The Legislature is in today. Here are the Senate and House calendars. Committees are also in. Here's the agenda, including afternoon hearings on school-safety measures. Watch them.

What we're watching today


The former president's Maine standing seems diminished ahead of his possible arrest. If you believe former President Donald Trump, he will be arrested on Tuesday. While there are signs that a New York City grand jury is wrapping up work on a hush-money case, the exact time of his possible indictment is still up in the air. Politico has reported it could come Wednesday.

The arrest of a former president is unprecedented, as many things are about Trump. He remains the leading candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination despite deep national unpopularity and a slipping status with voters and many of his former boosters in the establishment.

Take former Gov. Paul LePage, for example. Calling himself "Donald Trump before Donald Trump became popular," LePage endorsed him early in the 2016 primaries. In 2020, he chaired his Maine campaign and greeted him in Bangor. But while LePage ran his unsuccessful 2022 return bid against Gov. Janet Mills in a Democratic-leaning state, he mostly avoided Trump.

The former governor's recent comments bode badly for a continued bromance. LePage partially blamed Trump for the party's poor election here in a little-noticed interview with Samuel Bridges, the vice chair of the state party. He called the former president "wrong" for his false insistence that he beat President Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

"I think Donald Trump was a major factor in this election," he said.

Those remarks from LePage come after we have already seen examples of Trump's support softening here. After the election, some Republicans made similar statements or put forward Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a better standard bearer for the party. He is now mulling a run but generally remains behind Trump in national polls of the primary electorate.

Biden is not in a good position entering the 2024 election, remaining underwater with voters nationally. Even Mainers were roughly split on him during the 2022 election, with 6 in 10 disapproving of his economic agenda in a University of New Hampshire poll. The only sure way he looks like a favorite next year is if Trump is the one running against him.

The former president's net disapproval is 8 points higher than Biden's nationally. A majority of Mainers approved of last year's raid on Trump's Florida home in a confidential documents probe in the UNH poll. Two-thirds of Mainers said they were "very confident" their 2022 votes were accurately counted, while only 37 percent of Republicans were.

Trump's possible arrest as well as his unpopular areas of focus underline a perilous year for Republicans, who look to have a major political opportunity on their hands. LePage's comments and the political movement in Maine show the ground underneath the former president is moving, but none of this means he cannot win the 2024 nomination.
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News and notes

📷 The Shawmut Dam spans the Kennebec River on Sept. 15, 2021, between Fairfield and Benton. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)

 

 🐟 Federal regulators say a dam owner's plan will improve fish passage.

◉ The company that owns four controversial dams on the Kennebec River scored a victory on Monday, when the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said fish-passage plans will markedly improve conditions for the endangered Atlantic salmon and other species.

◉ The owner, Brookfield Renewable Partners, has been warring with the Mills administration and environmentalists over plans at the dams. The issue found its way into the 2022 campaign between Mills and LePage.

◉ The NOAA document is only an opinion, and the plan will need to be approved by another federal regulator. But environmentalists are already suing the feds on this issue and said they would fight Monday's action as well.

◉ "It is disturbing that NOAA appears to be disregarding science and blindly trusting Brookfield with the future of Atlantic salmon and other species that depend on a healthy river," the Kennebec Coalition, which includes the Natural Resources Council of Maine and the Conservation Law Foundation, said in a statement.

◉ "The biological opinion is an important milestone in ensuring that these facilities can continue to support Maine’s clean energy future and traditional industries along the lower Kennebec River," David Heidrich, a Brookfield Renewable spokesperson, said in a statement.

💰 A Maine senator's negotiating partner is upset with the president.

◉ Last week, Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-Louisiana, who has been leading Social Security reform talks with Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, blew up at Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen over the Biden administration's perceived lack of willingness to deal with him on the issue. Semafor reported Monday that Cassidy has talked with Biden aides, but the president has not met with him.

◉ “Biden calls himself a deal maker; we can’t make a deal without him," Cassidy said in a statement to the news outlet.

◉ The talks between Cassidy and King have been noteworthy since they have included the idea of raising the retirement age, although the pair has said that change would be offset by others that would raise benefits.

◉ On Thursday, the reporter who broke the news of the discussions asked the Maine senator whether protests on a retirement age hike in France gave him pause. King said he didn't want to discuss the issue with him. "Not with me?" the reporter asked.

◉ "Not with you, right," King told Semafor's Joseph Zeballos-Roig.
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What we're reading


🚽 Lawmakers offered no quick solution to Maine's sludge problems.

🔊 Meet the doctor at the forefront of AI's adoption in Maine.

👟 Bangor could be more walkable with a new downtown investment.

🇺🇸 Columbia Falls will vote Tuesday on delaying a massive flagpole project.

🎠 Two 20-somethings bought the Springfield fairgrounds to keep the fair alive. Here's your soundtrack.
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