Good morning from Brussels, **NOTE: We apologise for the delayed newsletter today due to technical issues. Austria will hold elections this Sunday, and polls suggest that the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is expected to rank first, although the distance from the centre-right People’s Party (EPP) has been shrinking in the last couple of weeks. However, FPÖ—affiliated with Viktor Orbán’s Patriots for Europe group—will have to find partners. The only possibility of reaching power is to form a coalition with the centre-right. It already did in three key states and twice at the federal level, although the centre-right People’s Party had alternatives. In this case, Austria’s far-right will get a lot and add another brick in the wall of Europe’s far-right normalisation. Our politics reporter, Nicoletta Ionta, explores the different scenarios in Austria’s political landscape and their probability. In other EU countries, certain trends are noticeable. In Sweden, the hard-right Sweden Democrats (ECR) came second in the 2022 elections, but centre-right parties formed a coalition excluding them. In exchange, the coalition agreed to apply its migration policy. In Finland, the 2023 elections put a coalition dominated by the Coalition party (Kok, EPP) and the Finns party (ECR) to power. The Finns got seven ministerial portfolios - the EPP Coalition party got eight as a comparison - that include the influential ministries of Finances, Economic Affairs, Justice and Interior Affairs. In the Netherlands, after tough talks, a cabinet was formed around independent politician Dick Schoof composed of the VVP (EPP), the PVV (PfE), the NSC (EPP) and the BBB (EPP). The far-right PVV got, among others, the Ministries of Asylum and Migration, Trade and Economic Affairs. In Italy, migration is led by Matteo Piantedosi, far-right Salvini’s former chief of staff in 2018. In France, the rise of Marine Le Pen resulted in handing over migration to conservative Bruno Retaillaud (EPP), known for his tough migration stance. Last but not least, in Germany, far-right AfD is on the rise, scoring high in recent regional elections and already affecting the agenda at the federal level. Austria’s centre-right intentions are still unknown. But if the far right becomes a senior coalition partner, it will be granted the chance to shape the agenda altogether. |