| | | | Wednesday, June 29, 2022 | | We're in the middle of what is, historically, the slowest time of the year for NFL news, but this year is a bit different. We've still got a few quarterbacks sitting out there on the trade block in Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo who very well could step onto the field as a starter for any number of teams when training camp opens in the next few weeks. | | But neither of those dominoes seems likely to fall until we know whether and for how long Deshaun Watson is going to be suspended for – and we should know about that in the coming weeks, if not days. The NFL is reportedly pushing for an indefinite suspension of at least a year for Watson as a result of allegations of sexual misconduct, and a hearing is currently taking place to determine the extent of the punishment Watson is going to face. Watson's status hangs over the entire Browns offense, and the outcome of that hearing could determine whether Mayfield is traded. | | So, we should know more at least before the start of training camp, and it'll shake up the Fantasy rankings when it does come down. We'll update whenever that does happen, but for now, I've got my top-150 rankings ready to go for you in today's edition of the Fantasy Football Today newsletter, with some extended thoughts on the players I think should go in the first two rounds. | | | | If you take a look at the recent 0.5PPR mock draft the FFT crew did last week, you'll actually notice just one omission from my list – I recently moved James Conner into my top 24, pushing Tyreek Hill down one spot. I'm actually surprised to see that I'm in line with at least that one draft, because there are definitely some differences between my rankings and the early Average Draft Position data out there. | | These rankings will surely change before the draft season really heats up, and we'll have updated positional rankings for you around the start of training camp, along with updates to Dave Richard's positional tiers and sleepers, breakouts, and busts from the whole FFT crew before camps kick off. And you can send in your questions to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com to be included in our mailbag next week, but for now, here are my latest top-150 rankings for the 2022 season: | | | | My top 24 for 2022 | | | | Christian McCaffrey – Whether you're willing to take McCaffrey with the first overall pick – or at all in the first round, if you ask some folks – comes down to how risk-averse you are. No player has shown more upside than McCaffrey, and this is the stat I keep coming back to prove it: He has just one fewer game with 24-plus PPR points over the past two seasons (seven) than Jonathan Taylor, despite playing in 23 fewer games. Injuries are the obvious concern, but I'm willing to overlook it for the league-winning upside if I get a bite at the No. 1 pick. Jonathan Taylor – That being said, if I have the No. 1 pick 10 times out of 120 leagues, I'll probably take Taylor with a few of those picks at least, for one simple reason: It'll almost certainly be my only chance to get Taylor on my team. The best-case scenario for McCaffrey is better than Taylor's, but Taylor has barely missed any time despite massive workloads going back to college, and that has to matter too. But he's not just a safe pick – he's also got plenty of upside in what could be an even better Colts offense with Matt Ryan replacing Carson Wentz. Cooper Kupp – I'm surprised I haven't seen more discussion this offseason about whether Kupp should be the top pick ahead of McCaffrey and Taylor. He was 60 points north of Taylor in PPR formats and showed no signs of slowing down at any point – in fact, he might have been even better in the playoffs, averaging 28.8 PPR points per game en route to a Super Bowl win. Given that, at least for the first few rounds of the draft, running back seems a little bit stronger than wide receiver, the positional scarcity argument might lean in Kupp's direction, too. Wait … am I talking myself into Kupp as the 1.1? Austin Ekeler – If someone tries to argue against a player by saying they "can't" or "don't" score touchdowns, just point them in Ekeler's direction. He went from three touchdowns in 10 games in 2020 to 20 in 2021. That's a good reason to expect some regression, but he's still arguably the best pass-catching RB in the league and he's tied to an elite offense with no obvious competition at his position, so Ekeler remains the obvious No. 4 pick for me. Justin Jefferson – While reading a recent piece in The Athletic where Vikings writers Chad Graff and Arif Hasan talked about their expectations for Kirk Cousins under new head coach Kevin O'Connell, I had a thought for the first time this offseason: Should Jefferson be the WR1? I can't justify it after the season Kupp just had, but the idea of Jefferson sporting a target share near 30% in an offense that figures to throw a lot more is an enticing one – he might already just be the best wide receiver in the NFL. If Kirk Cousins really pushes for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns like Hasan and Graff suggest he might, Jefferson might just be the best player in Fantasy. Davante Adams – I'm on a bit of an island with Adams, whose ADP is 10.4 in NFC drafts, but I just don't think there's going to be that much of a drop in his production. Sure, Derek Carr is no Aaron Rodgers, but I'm still expecting a massive target share in what should be a higher volume pass offense than Adams has played in. Touchdowns are probably the place where Adams figures to lose most, but I still think 120 catches and 1,500-plus yards are within reach. Najee Harris – The Steelers offense is going to look different without Ben Roethlisberger , but it's hard to figure out whether that's a good or bad thing for Harris. Certainly, he benefited from Roethlisberger's proclivity to dump it off at the first sign of danger, something Mitchell Trubisky may not share. However, defenses were also willing and able to play close to the line of scrimmage against the Steelers, confident that Roethlisberger wouldn't be willing to step up against the pass rush and beat them over the top. Harris is locked into a massive role, so the hope is he has a bit more room to work after struggling with efficiency last season.Ja'Marr Chase – Chase was so absurdly dominant as a rookie that it's almost hard to rank him entering year two. He put up an 81-1,455-13 line in the NFL after not playing the previous season – I mean, who does that? He put up historic efficiency and was a big-play machine – he had six plays of at least 50 yards, the most in the NFL. You should expect some regression from his 11.4 yards per target and 10.1% touchdown rate, but you should also expect more than his 128 targets, so the end result should be pretty similar production, I'd expect. With the possibility that he's just a singular talent who puts up Davante Adams numbers for the next half-decade. Aaron Jones – You may be a bit wary of spending a first-round pick on someone in the backfield committee, but Jones is still going to have a ton of opportunities to find the end zone and seems like a safe bet for a career-high in catches with Adams out of the picture – he's averaged 6.7 targets, 5.1 catches and 55.4 receiving yards in seven games without Adams over the past three seasons under coach Matt LaFleur. An Ekeler-type outcome is well within the realm of possibilities for Jones. Dalvin Cook – It's harder to ignore injuries with Cook than with McCaffrey, given that Cook's primary issue has been a series of recurring injuries to both shoulders. And the change to a less run-heavy offense could make Cook less of a sure thing on a weekly basis. But he's one of the rare three-down backs tied to an offense we have almost no concerns about, and he has 2,000 total yards, 20-touchdown upside. Travis Kelce – It's interesting to wonder where Kelce would be getting drafted if he didn't have 299 yards on 23 catches with three touchdowns in three playoff games, because it sure looked like the 32-year-old was starting to slow down before that. He had fewer than 35 yards in four of his final five regular season games and six of 16 overall, the most of his career. Will the loss of Tyreek Hill help or hurt Kelce? Does he have a bounce-back left in him? The tight end position looks as weak as ever, so he could still be a massive differentiator, but there's more risk here than there ever has been for Kelce. D'Andre Swift – Swift was the No. 10 RB in PPR points per game last season despite leaving one game after just three carries and than returning with just 11 carries in his final two games. And he did that on a bad offense where he scored just six touchdowns in 13 games. Such is the power of being an elite pass-catcher. The Lions have more options in the passing game this season, but Swift still has Ekeler-like upside, possibly with even more rushing potential. But injuries are a real concern after Swift has missed time in both of his NFL seasons to date. Derrick Henry – A significant part of the mystique around Henry was that he was a one-of-one outlier, physically. It was okay that he didn't catch passes because he was an outrageously efficient, high-volume rusher, the likes of which we haven't seen in the NFL in decades. However, coming off a significant foot injury and entering his age-28 season, it's harder to overlook the risks inherent in his profile. Henry is going to go in the first round in nearly every draft – just not to me. Leonard Fournette – Fournette was the No. 4 RB in points per game last season, and now the Buccaneers lost Ronald Jones from their backfield and Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown from their receiving corps – with Chris Godwin in question for the start of the season. Unless you're really worried about Fournette's offseason weight gain – he isn't, and neither is his coach – I'm comfortable with Fournette as my RB1. Remember, he signed a three-year deal this offseason, so I think his role is plenty safe in an elite offense. Joe Mixon – If I could trust Mixon to be a true three-down back, he'd be an easy first-round pick for me. And, in the final six games of 2021, including the playoffs, he averaged 19.0 PPR points per game despite scoring just three touchdowns in that span – largely thanks to a massively increased role in the passing game, as he caught 29 of 35 passes thrown his way. He had just 29 catches on 34 targets in the previous 14 games and averaged 17.2 points per game in that stretch despite 14 touchdowns. Mixon still has that truly elite upside if he could have that passing game role over a full season, but seeing as we've been waiting for years for it, I remain skeptical. Josh Allen – As I wrote about last week, I think the era of early-round quarterbacks is upon us, and Allen is the class of the position at this point. It's the combination of high passing volume and rushing production that makes him stand out, though it's at least somewhat fair to wonder whether he can return to 2020 levels of efficiency – his Y/A dipped from 7.9 to 6.9, while his touchdown rate dropped from 6.5% to 5.6%. If it does, he could top 500 points in a 17-game season. Stefon Diggs – And you've got Allen's top receiver next. Diggs' efficiency took a big hit in 2021, as he dipped to 7.5 yards per target, the second-worst mark of his career. If he and Allen can rediscover some of that 2020 magic, Diggs could be a first-round caliber performer, and I don't think there's much risk of downside at this point. Deebo Samuel – Talk about risk, though, here's Samuel. I'm assuming he'll end up playing for the 49ers despite his contract and trade demands, but what his role will look like is an open question. He was a dominant force as both a receiver and a rusher last season, but he apparently isn't thrilled about the prospect of being used as a running back again. In a crowded receiving corps with George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, playing with an unproven QB who figures to scramble quite a bit, Samuel could trail his elite WR counterparts by dozens of targets. If he doesn't have the rushing game role to fall back on, it will be tough for him to keep pace. Of course, if Trey Lance lives up to his considerable potential and the 49ers use him as an RB to supplement his receiving production again, Samuel could just be the best player in Fantasy. He might have the widest range of potential (non-injury) outcomes of any player in the first few rounds. Saquon Barkley – Let's stick with the theme, then. Barkley carries substantial risk on both the health and performance side of things, and if you don't want any part of him at this point, that's fair. However, the Giants offense figures to take a step forward with Brian Daboll taking over, and there's been a lot of talk about Barkley being used all over the field as a receiver, which is a great sign. Barkley has also talked about how he finally feels fully healthy after coming back from his ACL tear, so if he was ever going to rediscover that rookie season form, this feels like his best shot. If not, Barkley is probably done as a Fantasy asset, so it's a make-or-break season for real. Mark Andrews – Andrews' production took a huge leap in the games Lamar Jackson missed last season, as he went from 16.3 PPR points on 8.5 targets with Jackson to 21.96 on 11.4 in the five Jackson missed. I'm not saying Andrews can't be a great Fantasy option with Jackson, or that Jackson is somehow holding him back, but Tyler Huntley zeroed in on Andrews in a way Jackson never has, while the Ravens were forced to pass more due to injuries to their running back group. Andrews is still a difference maker at the tight end position, but I'm expecting regression from his career-best numbers, enough to put a little gap between him and Kelce. Mike Evans – When a player is as consistent as Evans has been, it's easy to tag them as "low-upside," at least relative to other, more high-variance players. But it's worth considering the possibility that Evans might have one more massive season left in him, given the circumstances he seems likely to find himself in with Tampa's offense. With Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin out in the team's two playoff games last season, Evans had 26 combined targets, racking up 17 catches for 236 yards and two touchdowns. Will he do that for a whole season? Certainly not. However, Brown and Rob Gronkowski are out of the picture and Godwin may not be ready for Week 1 – and almost certainly won't be fully right by then – so Evans could be in line for pretty massive target totals this season, the likes of which he hasn't consistently seen for the past few years. He's got a very high floor, but Evans could also have top-five WR upside, too. CeeDee Lamb – Lamb has been a disappointment through his first two seasons, at least in most Fantasy analysts' eyes. I've been lower on him than the consensus both times out and have ended up pretty much in line with where he ended up, so I'm hoping to make it three in a row by actually predicting a breakout this time. The Cowboys are always going to spread the ball around a lot, but with Amari Cooper traded and Michael Gallup recovering from a torn ACL, Lamb seems locked in as the team's true top target for the first time. There's little doubting the talent, and this remains one of the best offenses in the league, so Lamb seems well-equipped for a big step forward. James Conner – Conner finished as the No. 5 RB in PPR scoring last season – No. 9 per game – and the Cardinals got rid of Chase Edmonds without replacing him, so I'm not sure why he's going in the late third round on average right now. Conner played five games without Edmonds last season and averaged 23.1 PPR points per game, largely thanks to a big increase in receiving production – he averaged five catches for 44.8 yards in those five games. Conner is locked into a valuable role that has seen Conner and Kenyan Drake combine for 28 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and now he potentially has that pass-catching role all to himself to start the season. I'm thrilled if he ends up falling to me in the third round. Alvin Kamara – If you told me Kamara was going to be available for the entire season, he'd be a top-five pick for me. However, with Kamara facing a hearing on Aug. 1 for a felony battery charge from an offseason incident, it seems possible he'll be suspended at some point this season. Now, that likely won't come until after he goes through the legal process, so it's entirely possible he won't face any discipline until after the season. However, with this hanging over him, I don't think you can spend a first-round pick on him yet. | | | | And here are the rest of my top-150 overall players: | 25. Tyreek Hill
26. Tee Higgins
27. Diontae Johnson
28. A.J. Brown
29. David Montgomery
30. Keenan Allen
31. Javonte Williams
32. Brandin Cooks
33. D.J. Moore
34. Kyle Pitts
35. Nick Chubb
36. Ezekiel Elliott
37. Patrick Mahomes
38. George Kittle
39. Lamar Jackson
40. Michael Pittman Jr.
41. J.K. Dobbins
42. Justin Herbert
43. Antonio Gibson
44. Breece Hall
45. Cam Akers
46. Marquise Brown
47. Mike Williams
48. Darren Waller
49. Amari Cooper
50. Travis Etienne
51. Josh Jacobs
52. Jaylen Waddle
53. Chris Godwin
54. Terry McLaurin
55. D.K. Metcalf
56. T.J. Hockenson
57. JuJu Smith-Schuster
58. Allen Robinson
59. Adam Thielen
60. Robert Woods
61. AJ Dillon
62. Rashod Bateman
63. Miles Sanders
64. Darnell Mooney
65. Elijah Mitchell
66. Kyler Murray
67. Jerry Jeudy
68. Dalton Schultz
69. Drake London
70. Amon-Ra St. Brown
71. Michael Thomas
72. Jalen Hurts
73. Kareem Hunt
74. DeAndre Hopkins
75. Kadarius Toney
76. Dallas Goedert
77. Gabe Davis
78. Tyler Lockett
79. Damien Harris
80. Dak Prescott
81. DeVonta Smith
82. Elijah Moore
83. Chase Edmonds
84. Hunter Renfrow
85. Tom Brady
86. Russell Gage
87. Matthew Stafford
88. Joe Burrow
89. Jarvis Landry
90. Chase Claypool
91. Chris Olave
92. Garrett Wilson
93. Russell Wilson
94. DeVante Parker
95. Aaron Rodgers
96. Tony Pollard
97. Cordarrelle Patterson
98. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
99. Kirk Cousins
100. Tyler Boyd
101. Allen Lazard
102. Zach Ertz
103. Courtland Sutton
104. Corey Davis
105. Trey Lance
106. Christian Kirk
107. Brandon Aiyuk
108. Marvin Jones
109. Tim Patrick
110. Mike Gesicki
111. Rashaad Penny
112. Kenny Golladay
113. Devin Singletary
114. Rondale Moore
115. Kenneth Gainwell
116. James Cook
117. Melvin Gordon
118. Rhamondre Stevenson
119. James Robinson
120. Derek Carr
121. Jamison Crowder
122. Zay Jones
123. Donovan Peoples-Jones
124. J.D. McKissic
125. Logan Thomas
126. Kenneth Walker III
127. Robby Anderson
128. Cole Kmet
129. Albert Okwuegbunam
130. Pat Freiermuth
131. Treylon Burks
132. Jamaal Williams
133. Justin Fields
134. Alexander Mattison
135. A.J. Green
136. Ronald Jones II
137. Curtis Samuel
138. Mecole Hardman
139. Gerald Everett
140. David Njoku
141. Noah Fant
142. Irv Smith
143. Tyler Higbee
144. Dameon Pierce
145. Hunter Henry
146. Ryan Tannehill
147. Sammy Watkins
148. Julio Jones
149. K.J. Osborn
150. Nyheim Hines | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Fantasy Baseball Today | ✔Scores & Highlights
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