Hasn't JP been here before? | TSMC's feeling confident |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for July 15th in 3:14 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. JPMorgan reported quarterly results that donā€™t bode well for the rest of the banking sector
  2. Japanese stocks have held their own against US stocks this year, so weā€™ve looked at how to profit if this outperformance continues
  3. TSMC bucked the economic slowdown to post an impressive update

DĆ©jĆ  Vu

DĆ©jĆ  Vu

Whatā€™s Going On Here?

US banking powerhouse JPMorgan posted disappointing quarterly results on Thursday.

What Does This Mean?

During the height of the pandemic, JPMorgan was forced to build up a pile of funds ā€“ known as ā€œloan loss reservesā€ ā€“ that would protect its bottom line if customers couldnā€™t pay off their debts. But after finally releasing those reserves into the business last year, the bankā€™s found itself right back where it started: itā€™s been forced to build them up again in case of a recession, adding another $428 million to the total last quarter. And with interest rate hikes dragging on both markets and corporate dealmaking, its faltering investment banking business added insult to injury.

Of course, those hikes arenā€™t all bad: JPMorgan made 19% more net interest income last quarter than it did the same time last year, while market volatility boosted its trading business. But the bankā€™s overall profit still fell 28%, and it also suspended share buybacks to save some cash for incoming regulations. That was the final nail in the coffin: investors sent its stock down 5% (tweet this).

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Nice try, JP Morgan.
Even JPMorganā€™s interest income could take a hit from here on out. See, big banks typically raise lending rates much quicker than they raise savings rates, meaning they can profit from a bigger margin for longer. But cash-strapped customers arenā€™t suckers, and theyā€™re increasingly moving their money to smaller lenders that pay savers more. So if JPMorgan wants to hold onto them, it might need to start offering a better deal ā€“ and fast.

The bigger picture: Brace for impact.
Morgan Stanley let investors down on Thursday too, with its profit plunging by 29%. Like JPMorgan, its investment banking revenue collapsed, but its flagship wealth management business ā€“ which looks after rich peopleā€™s cash in exchange for a fee ā€“ struggled too. So with retail banking, investment banking, and wealth management all looking delicate, this doesnā€™t bode well for the rest of the sector this earnings season.

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Analyst Take

Should You Revisit Japanese Stocks?

Should You Revisit Japanese Stocks?

By Jonathan Hobbs, Analyst

Like most major stock indexes, Japanā€™s Nikkei 225 has had a tough run of it this year, falling around 9% since December.

But the S&P 500 has dropped more than twice that over the same period, and there are a host of reasons this outperformance could be set to continue.

For one thing, Japanese companies have consistently been delivering more and more value to their shareholders than American companies have in the last decade.

And for another, Japan is one of the few major economies whose inflation rate isnā€™t going through the roof: itā€™s sitting at just 2.5% right now.

So thatā€™s todayā€™s Insight: all the reasons the Land of the Rising Sun looks so bright right now, and how to profit from its stocks.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Buy The Chip

Buy The Chip

Whatā€™s Going On Here?

TSMC ā€“ the worldā€™s biggest contract chipmaker ā€“ reported booming quarterly results on Thursday.

What Does This Mean?

TSMC controls over half the global market for made-to-order chips, and it boasts the most advanced semiconductor production technology in the world. So itā€™s hardly a surprise that its products were still in high demand from the likes of Apple ā€“ which has launched five different types of chip in the last 18 months alone ā€“ and the carmaking industry. That helped TSMC grow its revenue by an expectation-busting 44% last quarter from the same time last year, while profit jumped 77% in the biggest uptick in two years. The chipmaker said itā€™s ā€œhighly confidentā€ about the future too: it upped its revenue outlook, saying it was experiencing plenty of demand for the kinds of chips used in AI and 5G. Well, obviously: Bill Gates isnā€™t exactly going to take over the world with a can-do attitude alone.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: TSMC is playing it safe.
Investors have been daring to dream that the economic slowdown hasnā€™t impacted chipmakers yet, and TSMCā€™s results will have given them more faith. But there are signs that a dropoff is on the way: demand for chips specifically used in consumer electronics is starting to wane, which analysts think will come back to hurt TSMC toward the end of the year. That might be why the firm said itā€™s planning to push some of this yearā€™s planned spending into 2023.

Zooming out: If in doubt, bribery.
TSMCā€™s still going ahead with plans to build overseas plants, including a massive American hub in Arizona for $12 billion. Thatā€™ll come as welcome news for the US government, which has been trying to bring chipmaking back to its shores in a bid to counter Chinaā€™s growing economic power. In fact, itā€™s currently debating whether to offer $52 billion worth of incentives to get this party started.

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šŸ’¬ Quote of the day

ā€œWe are surrounded by story.ā€

ā€“ Alice McDermott (an American writer and university professor)
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šŸŒŽ Finimize Live

šŸŽ‰ Coming Up In The Next Weekā€¦

All events in UK time.

šŸŒ Blockchain, Crypto, and ESG: 5pm, July 19th
šŸ‘€ Your Guide To Earnings Season: 3pm, July 20th
šŸŽ‰ Navigating The World Of Stablecoins: 6pm, July 20th
šŸ”„ How To Use Machine Learning For Trading: 12pm, July 21st

šŸ„³ And After Thatā€¦

šŸ· Is Wine The Perfect Recession-Proof Investment?: 1pm, July 27th
ā™»ļø Building A Crypto ESG Framework: 6pm, August 2nd
šŸ“ˆ A Case For DAO Treasury Diversification: 6pm, August 9th
šŸ’» How To Spot The Best Tech Stocks: 6pm, August 16th

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