Good morning,

A shout-out to Pacific Current chairman Tony Robinson, who has come up with an apt yet grisly way to illustrate key man risk in funds management.

At the boutique asset manager owner’s annual meeting on Thursday, Robinson attempted to illustrate how difficult it is to value an asset manager accurately.

“All of these businesses are key people dependent, so you’re even guessing to an extent on the longevity of the key individuals in the business,” he said.

“If you hear half an hour beforehand, before anyone else in the world, that Rajiv Jain at GQG has died, sell their shares or buy a massive number of shorts.”

Sounds like a good setup for a James Bond film.

Morbid yes, but he’s not wrong to call it out. The history books are littered with examples of how to (or not to) survive past the departure of a rock star founder. The big risk is funds follow top investors out the door, wiping value off the headline stock price.

It’s unclear how GQG or PAC are trying to get ahead of the risk attached to Jain, which several investors have noted.

PAC also provided us with an update on the transaction process, which of Thursday morning has formally concluded with neither Regal/River Capital nor GQG’s bids getting up – sending shares down 9.2 per cent to $8.18.

Eleven parties expressed interest in a potential transaction (aka took a flyer), five met with PAC and UBS and two conducted extensive due diligence. After Regal pulled out on September 28, that left just GQG in the mix. GQG’s non-binding $11 bid was disclosed to the market in early November.

Happy reading,

• It’s Fashion, Baby! Gina Rinehart weighs acquisition of Driza-Bone.
• Macquarie-advised EBOS hounds Greencross; deal in the offing.
• France’s Vinci throws its beret in the ring for Queensland Airports.
• Doyen of restructuring Dominic Emmett strikes out on his own.
• Terms out for Karoon Energy, Steadfast Group’s equity raises.

• Activist investor ValueAct Capital has built a stake in entertainment giant Disney, WSJ reports.
• Blackstone is raising funds to give its flagship private credit fund added investment firepower, Financial Times reports.
• MinterEllison partners leave in rival firm raid, writes Maxim Shanahan.

EBOS Group’s shares have risen more than 70 per cent over the past five years to $35.

Click here for the latest equity market wrap.