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| Friday, November 29, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Black Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| I hope you didn't fill up on football yesterday, because there is more football coming your way today. For the second time in NFL history, the league will be holding a Black Friday game with the Raiders traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Normally on Black Friday, I spend half my day buying things that I don't actually need, but since I'll be watching the game for three hours, I'm thinking that will cut down on the amount of things I buy. |
| Of course, since the game is on Amazon, I might end buying twice as many things as usual. I might go broke today. |
| Not only will we be previewing today's game in the newsletter, but we'll also be handing out grades from the three Thanksgiving games. And yes, we'll be breaking down the firing of Matt Eberflus, who was let go by the Bears on Friday after committing one of the worst late-game coaching gaffes in recent NFL history |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Thanksgiving grades: Bears choke away possible upset win, Dolphins are still bad in cold weather |
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| The only thing better than eating leftover turkey on the day after Thanksgiving is eating that leftover turkey while you do our grades from yesterday's games. |
| Let's check out the grades for two of the three games: |
| Lions 23-20 over Bears (Click here for full recap) |
| Bears takeaway: Matt Eberflus has been on the hot seat all season and after this loss, his seat became combustible and blew up, because he's now out in Chicago. The Bears had a chance to win or tie this game in the final minute, but Eberflus totally botched the clock management in the final 30 seconds. On top of that, the Bears didn't look prepared to play during a first half where they fell behind 16-0 while totaling just 53 yards. The Bears did come back from the dead during a wild second half that saw Caleb Williams throw for 222 yards and three touchdowns. The defense also stepped up its game in the second half, holding the Lions to just 126 yards over the final two quarters. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore both came up with some huge plays for an offense that has looked completely rejuvenated under Thomas Brown. The problem for the Bears is that they continue to be held back by coaching. This is arguably the fourth game this year that Eberflus cost his team with questionable coaching late in the fourth quarter and by firing him on Friday, the Bears made sure there won't be another one. Grade: CLions takeaway: The Lions had a chance to run away with this game in the first half, but they couldn't get anything done in the red zone, which allowed the Bears to stay in the game. The Lions only scored on two touchdowns on five trips to the red zone and that's something they're going to have to clean up if they want to hold on to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Lions also took a Thanksgiving nap in the second half, because they appeared to be sleep-walking through the final two quarters. The Lions got several uncharacteristic mistakes from players like Jahmyr Gibbs (who lost a fumble) and Jake Bates (who missed his first field goal of the year). The Lions rushing attack disappeared in the second half with just 50 yards and that's a big reason why the offense slowed down. After his scare, you can bet Dan Campbell will be keeping his foot on the gas in every game going forward. Grade: C+ |
If you want to know how badly the Bears botched things at the end of the game, we broke that down here.
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| Packers 30-17 over Dolphins (Click here for full recap) |
| Dolphins takeaway: The Dolphins always seem to struggle in cold weather and those struggles continued on Thursday night. The offense got off to a slow start and the defense wasn't much better during a first half where the Packers shot out to a 24-3 lead. The Dolphins' rushing attack was nonexistent and although Tua Tagovailoa put up decent numbers (365 yards, two touchdowns), he came up empty on two big fourth-down attempts in Green Bay territory with one of those coming from the one-yard line in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins weren't helped by the fact that Malik Washington muffed a punt inside his own 10 yard line in the first three minutes of the game. The Dolphins have now lost 12 straight games when the temperature is under 40 degrees and if they can't figure out how to play better in cold weather, it's hard to imagine them ever being a serious playoff threat. Grade: DPackers takeaway: The cold temperatures seemed to bother the Dolphins, but they didn't seem to bother Jordan Love. The Packers QB had one of his most efficient games of the year, throwing for 274 yards and two touchdowns. Josh Jacobs helped carry the offense through the cold weather with a solid all-around performance that included 117 total yards and one touchdown. Defensively, the Packers might have been even more impressive. Not only did the unit hold Miami's high-powered rushing attack to under 40 yards, but the defense also came up with four huge sacks of Tua Tagovailoa, including a sack by Quay Walker that came on a fourth-and-goal at the Packers' 1-yard line. The Packers have now won seven of eight and they're looking more impressive every week. This could be a dangerous team come January. Grade: A |
| You can check out all of our Thanksgiving grades here. |
| We also have winners and losers from the Turkey Day games and you can check those out here. |
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| 2. Matt Eberflus fired: Bears dump coach after Thanksgiving debacle |
| The Chicago Bears have finally seen enough. After watching one of the worst late-game coaching debacles in recent NFL history, the team decided to fire Matt Eberflus on Friday. The move came less than 24 hours after Chicago lost to the Lions 23-20 in a game where the Bears absolutely botched their clock management in the final minute. |
| Loss to Lions was the final straw. If you missed the end of Thursday's game, here's what happened: The Bears had one timeout and they were in field goal range after taking a sack with 32 seconds left to play and their plan was to run one more play to see if they could get closer. The only problem is that they didn't get their final play off until there was just six seconds left and by the time the play was over, the clock had hit zero. After the game, Caleb Williams hinted that he might have called a timeout, but he didn't think he had that authority. Eberflus could have called a timeout at any point, but instead, he let the clock melt down (If you somehow missed what happened, you can watch the final sequence here). Bad coaching has cost the Bears at least three losses. In Week 8, the Bears lost to the Commanders on a Hail Mary after they let Washington gain 13 yards on the play before the Hail Mary. In Week 11, the Packers blocked a 46-yard field goal attempt by Cairo Santos on the final play of the game. The Bears could have tried to get closer for Santos, but Eberflus decided not to. He won't be remembered fondly by Bears fans. Eberflus will be leaving Chicago with a record of 14-32, which is the third-worst in franchise history. He also had a 5-19 record in one-score games, which is the worst record by any coach in NFL history who's been involved in at least 20 one-score games. |
| The Bears will be handing the interim job to Thomas Brown, who was perviously serving as the Bears interim offensive coordinator after the firing of Shane Waldron in early November. For more on Eberflus' firing, you can check out our full story here. |
| 3. Black Friday preview: Picks and best bets for Raiders at Chiefs |
| For the first time in 58 years, the NFL is giving us TWO Friday football games in the same season. The first Friday game came back in Week 1 when the Packers and Eagles played in Brazil. This time around, Amazon and the NFL will be celebrating Black Friday by giving us an AFC West showdown between the Raiders and Chiefs. |
| The game will be kicking off at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to make note of that if you're planning to watch. |
| Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into today's game: |
| Why the Raiders can win: Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell missed more than a month due to a thumb injury, but he'll be returning for this game and if Las Vegas is going to win, it's likely going to happen because O'Connell has a huge game. Although the Chiefs rank in the top five in the NFL in run defense, they rank in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. If O'Connell plays smart football and if the Raiders defense can keep this from turning into a shootout, then Las Vegas will have a chance to win. Why the Chiefs can win: If this game turns into anything that remotely resembles a shootout, the Raiders likely aren't going to win, which means if Patrick Mahomes plays well, the Chiefs should win. The Raiders are 0-7 this season when their opponent scores 24 point or more, so if Mahomes and the offense can reach that number, Kansas City will likely improve to 11-1. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Cody Benjamin by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. |
ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Brock Bowers OVER 6.5 receptions (+105 at BetMGM): Bowers has only gone over this number twice in his past five games, but here's why I like him to do it today: He's had a lot of success with Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders QB has started two games this season and in those games, Bowers saw 22 targets while finishing with nine receptions in his first game with O'Connell and eight in his second game with the QB. I expect O'Connell to look for Bowers early and often, which should help push the tight end over this number.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Daniel Carlson OVER 5.5 points (-105 at BetMGM): Carlson has gone OVER this total in four of his past five games and that includes a game in Week 8 against the Chiefs where he scored eight points. Over the past five weeks, Carlson has averaged 9.8 points per game, so even if the Raiders offense struggles today, this feels like a number that Carlson should still be able to hit. |
| And in case you're wondering, my props are now 29-24 on the season (14-11 on kicker props and 15-13 on all other props). |
| We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here. |
| And finally, here are our picks for the game. |
RAIDERS-CHIEFS PICKS
My pick: Chiefs 23-16 over Raiders
Cody's pick: Chiefs 24-16 over Raiders
Prisco's pick: Chiefs 31-14 over Raiders |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, our experts are all taking the Chiefs, but we're split down the middle on whether Kansas City will cover as a 12-point favorite. |
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| 4. NFL Week 13 picks: Bills and Chargers both roll |
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| It's officially time for your favorite part of the Friday newsletter, which is where I round up five NFL writers and we all make some picks for the upcoming week. Just in case you've forgotten, our five writers are: Pete Prisco, Jason La Canfora, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. In Week 12, things got a little weird: We eked out a winning record by going 3-2 both straight up and against the spread. For the season, that means we're now 30-30 ATS and 30-25 straight up. |
| If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 13 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life. |
| Pete Prisco -- Chargers (-2) 30-21 over Falcons. From Prisco: "The Falcons are coming off the bye, while the Chargers are playing on a short week on the road. That's a challenge. But the Falcons offense went away in the two games before the bye. This Chargers defense will slow them again as Justin Herbert gets the best of the Atlanta defense." For the rest of Prisco's Week 13 picks, be sure to click here. Tyler Sullivan -- Bills (-6.5) 30-21 over 49ers. From Sullivan: "In their last nine games coming off of a bye week, the Bills are 9-0 straight up and they'll be playing for the AFC East crown in this game thanks to Miami's loss on Thanksgiving night. That should give the Bills even more motivation on top of still vying for the No. 1 seed in the conference. " For the rest of Sullivan's Week 13 picks, be sure to click here. Jason La Canfora -- Buccaneers (-5.5) to cover against Panthers. From JLC: "The Bucs are 12-2 ATS on the road the last two seasons, covering on average by a ridiculous 7.54 points. That's crazy. Tampa Bay is healthier on offense and while the Panthers are improved, they are also still limited. The Bucs have covered six of eight vs. Carolina (and eight of 12 and 10 of 16.) while the Panthers have eight losses of 6 points or more." You can check out the rest of La Canfora's best bets for Week 13 here. Jordan Dajani -- Seahawks (-2) 23-18 over Jets. From Dajani: "Geno Smith revenge game! He's the NFL leader in passing yards per game and passing completions this season, and with the win over the Arizona Cardinals last week, his Seahawks own first place in the NFC West! ... It seems like the Seahawks are improving, while the Jets are going the other direction." For the rest of Dajani's Week 13 best bets, be sure to click here.John Breech -- Bengals (-2.5) 23-20 over Steelers. "If the Steelers defense has had one weakness this year, it's stopping the pass and that's not a weakness you want to have when you're about to face Joe Burrow." For the rest of my Week 13 picks, be sure to click here. |
| For more Week 13 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBSSports.com picks hub here. |
| 5. NFL bold predictions for Week 13: Titans shock Commanders |
| After giving you some bold predictions for Week 12 last Friday, Garrett Podell is back with five more for Week 13. Last week, Garrett correctly predicted that Jordan Love would throw zero interceptions, so you'll definitely want to see what he has to say this week. |
| Let's take a look at two of his bold predictions for Sunday: |
| 1. Titans shock Commanders. "The Commanders lost just last week in mind-boggling fashion in a 36-24 defeat against the Dallas Cowboys: they became the first team in NFL history to allow two kick-return touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a game. Washington also employs Kliff Kingsbury as its offensive coordinator while starting rookie No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Kingsbury, an established second half of the season dropper, leading a rookie quarterback late in the season is an accident waiting to happen. It's part of the reason why Washington has lost three in a row after a 7-2 start to 2024. Tennessee pulls out a weird victory for the second week in a row against Washington in a stunner." 2. Ravens hold Saquon Barkley under 100 yards. "Saquon Barkley is on pace for 2,151 rushing yards and 2,548 scrimmage yards this season, both of which would both be NFL single-season records. He is coming off of a Week 12 performance in which he totaled Eagles single-game records for rushing yards (255) and scrimmage yards (302) in a victory at the Los Angeles Rams. Naturally, one would think he would go off once again in Week 13 right? Wrong. Barkley's Week 13 opponent, are an immovable object. The Ravens lead the NFL in yards per carry allowed (3.5) and surrender just 77.9 rushing yards per game, the second-fewest in the league trailing only the Minnesota Vikings (74.7). Nobody has rushed for more than 63 yards in a game against Baltimore this season." |
| Garrett made a total of five bold predictions for Week 13, and you check out all of them here. |
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| 6. Extra points: NFL reveals national anthem singer for Super Bowl LIX |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Super Bowl LIX pregame show announced. The pregame entertainment at Super Bowl LIX will start off with Jon Batiste, who sing the national anthem. Trombone Shorty, Lauren Daigle and Ledisi will also be part of the entertainment at the Big Game. The lineup was picked to honor the legendary music scene of New Orleans. Batiste is a five-time Grammy Award-winning and Academy Award-winning artist known
Tom Brady takes shot at Daniel Jones. Brady, who is now a broadcaster for Fox, called out Jones for asking for his released after being benched by the Giants. Brady hasn't had many hot takes since joining the announcer booth, but this definitely qualifies. You can read more about his comments here. Dolphins linebacker calls out team for being "soft." The Dolphins have now lost 12 straight games when the temperature is below 40 degrees and Jordy Brooks has seen enough. The linebacker called out Miami's defense, "I thought we were soft," Brooks said after Miami's loss to Green Bay, via ESPN. "Simple as that, I thought we were soft today. I don't know if guys was too cold ... I don't know what it was. I feel like the elements played a part in how we played as a group, and that was the result that we got." |
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