Best Winning Streak For Rates in 2 Years

It was a critical week for financial markets and especially for rates as investors digested the latest inflation data and the Fed's smaller rate hike. In fact, the latest inflation data could be thought of as the most important and most persistent focus for rates all year long. When it comes to measuring inflation, there are multiple economic reports that matter, but it is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that has by far and away the biggest impact on the market. This week's installment was important because the last installment suggested a shift toward a slower pace of price increases. In other words, it had the opportunity to confirm that shift or argue against it. Inflation is important for a variety of reasons, but it affects the market most directly due to its influence on the Federal Reserve's policies. Higher inflation means more rate hikes and more rate hikes reverberate through the economy. While the Fed Funds Rate doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, if markets expect the Fed to hike faster than before, interest rates tend to move higher and stocks tend to move lower. In the following chart, the 10yr Treasury yield represents the "rate" side of the equation, and it is a dead giveaway that this week's inflation report was lower than expected (Dec 13th). The chart shows stocks and rates reacting to the Fed policy implications in the first half of the week. Then later in the week, additional weakness in stocks helped rates remain a bit lower as investors sold stocks aggressively and sought a safer haven in the bond market.

December 16, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Best Winning Streak For Rates in 2 Years It was a critical week for financial markets and especially for rates as investors digested the latest inflation data and the Fed's smaller rate hike. In fact, the latest inflation data could be thought of as the most important and most persist... (read more) MBS Commentary "Holiday Mode" Cuts Both Ways Around Thanksgiving and then again after the December meeting, you'll see us increasingly reference "holiday trading mode." This term is a bit of a cop out from an analytical standpoint. Sort of like your friend that says anything can be ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Tax, Fee Collection, Digital, TPO Products; FHFA, Freddie, Fannie Developments This morning I Head East to Chicago for a handful of days. If you’ve wondered what a pilot sees when landing at O’Hare, here’s a mesmerizing video. (What is the tallest building in Chicago? The library, because it has so many stories.) From coast to ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.17% +0.04% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.17% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.48% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.73% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.50% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.82% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.75% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.48% +0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.31% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.54% -0.13 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/15 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.42% +0.01 0.64 15 Yr. Fixed 5.92% +0.08 0.54 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% +0.06 0.42 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/14 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.25 -0.11 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 100.25 -0.11 UMBS 5.5 101.41 -0.19 GNMA 5.0 100.38 -0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.30 -0.13 Pricing as of: 12/16 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.4913 +0.0413 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.185 -0.055 5 YR Treasury 3.631 +0.010 7 YR Treasury 3.589 +0.029 10 YR Treasury 3.491 +0.041 30 YR Treasury 3.552 +0.054 Pricing as of: 12/16 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fmr. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida agrees with Fed on the need for ongoing... The Fed is tightening way too much, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel Investor home flipping profits hit 13-year low as profit margins drop signi... The Fed has to remain hawkish in its remarks, says Ritholtz's Josh Brown Around the Web Reuters Fed's Daly: No Fed Policymakers See Rate Cuts Next Year Reuters Fed's Williams says rates could rise more than central bank has priced in Eye on Housing The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2021 Data Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Board Adopts Rule to Implement LIBOR Replacement in Certain Financial Contracts Reuters Markets may still be underestimating how high ECB rates have to go FHA FHA Revises Dual Employment Requirements and Clarifies Other Conflict of Interest Policies Eye on Housing Single-Family Permits Continues On A Downward Trend in October 2022 Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 55% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 16% Eye on Housing Nearly Two-Thirds of Homes Started in 2021 are in Community Associations CNBC 10-year Treasury yield inches higher as investors assess economic outlook Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November CNBC Retail sales fell 0.6% in November as consumers feel the pressure from inflation CNBC European markets expected to open higher as investors digest central bank announcements

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