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| Monday, December 9, 2024 |
| I am done recording the Week 14 Beyond the Box Score podcast -- a weekly Monday recap show that I do with Adam and Dan -- and now it's time to catch FFT Newsletter readers up on everything that I've learned in the past 24 hours! We're going beyond the box score! |
| If you want to check out the podcast version on FFT, you can listen to that here! |
| Beyond the Box Score -- Fantasy football risers following Week 14 |
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| Fantasy riser -- Jordan Addison |
| You can watch a bit of Addison's Week 14 action in this Twitter thread. What we've seen from him lately is super interesting. I'm not sure how predictive it is of what's to come, but it's at least very interesting. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Jauan Jennings |
| After being treated to a 33% first-read target rate and a few downfield looks in Week 14, it appears as if league-winner Jauan Jennings is back on the menu. Brock Purdy aired it out in Week 14, and his accuracy notes look decent upon first glance at the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I haven't watched anything from that game other than Jauan's targets yet. |
| Fantasy riser -- Puka Nacua |
| What we're seeing from Puka Nacua in Year 2 is unbelievably bullish for his short- and long-term outlook, and Week 14's massive performance was the highest peak yet. |
| Additional context from Matt Harmon |
| And here's some context from yours truly |
| Fantasy riser -- Trey McBride |
| We can't place anyone above Brock Bowers in the Dynasty tight end conversation, but it is amazing how close Trey McBride is in my mind. |
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| With matchups against the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams defenses over the next three weeks, we may well see the receiving touchdown regression hit in a big way for McBride. He has access to unique upside at the TE position. McBride could realistically be among the highest scoring PPR producers at any position over the next three weeks. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Brian Thomas Jr. |
| Push Brian Thomas Jr. as far up your Dynasty rankings as you would like. There's no wrong answer other than too low, I don't think you can place him "too high." |
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| Fantasy riser -- Amari Cooper |
| The route rate/snap count numbers have not changed much for Cooper, he only ran one more route than Curtis Samuel in this game, but his place in Josh Allen's target distribution list certainly changed in Week 14. We saw a 44% first-read target share funneled Cooper's way, which resulted in an absurdly-high air yardage total. |
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| Only about half of those air yards were catchable, and it seems clear that trying to dig out of a large deficit affected the way that the Bills attacked offensively (ask Fantasy managers who were counting on James Cook for Week 14 production), still, it's encouraging that this type of performance is ever available to Cooper. This type of receiving volume from the hand of Josh Allen offers the upside for 40+ Fantasy points on any given week. If speaking strictly in terms of upside, Cooper's name ranks near the very top of any list of receivers for Week 15 with a potential shootout vs. the Detroit Lions on tap. |
| Trusting Cooper in his current role is a roll of the dice, make no doubt about it, but he does present you matchup-winning upside if your risk tolerance allows for such a gamble. |
| Fantasy riser -- Adam Thielen |
| Seemingly one of the most trustworthy veteran receivers at the moment, Adam Thielen presents an entirely different type of range of outcomes than Cooper. He has at least nine catchable targets and between 87 and 92 catchable air yards in each of the past two games. Only Nacua, McBride, and David Njoku have more catchable targets than Thielen over the past two weeks. |
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| Even in a matchup against the Eagles, Thielen turned in a usable Fantasy performance. He accounted for 40% of Bryce Young's first-read targets and appears locked in as the clear-cut top target going forward. Thielen, Nacua, and Jayden Reed (in Week 1) are the only receivers to go for 100+ yards vs. Philly in 2024. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both fell short. So did BTJ, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Ja'Marr Chase, Terry McLaurin, Cooper Kupp, Drake London, Chris Olave, and Zay Flowers. It's been an incredible season for the Eagles defense. What we just saw from Thielen (and Chuba Hubbard) makes him feel like one of the most trustworthy options at his position with upcoming matchups against the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Buccaneers defenses to finish the Fantasy football season. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Zach Charbonnet |
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| Zach Charbonnet is an absolute dawg. |
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| I thought this was such a cool stat! And somehow no one on Twitter cared about it. Meanwhile, I simply tweeted that Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks as the WR5 in Fantasy on the season, and over a million people saw it. I guess people just hate reading and the overwhelming contents of the Charbonnet tweet (30-40 words) was too much. |
| Nearly 200 scrimmage yards for Charbonnet in Week 14, that's pretty wild, right?! This was an extremely exciting long-term signal, and Charbonnet is locked in as a top-10 Fantasy RB for as long as Walker remains sidelined. The injury reporting out of Seattle last week seemed to leave open a possibility of Walker missing multiple games. |
| Fantasy riser -- Tyrone Tracy |
| I'm not sure if or when the efficiency will improve in this Drew Lock-led offense, but Tyrone Tracy's long-awaited incorporation into the receiving game is certainly noteworthy. |
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| Tracy will be tough to trust against the Ravens in Week 15, but I feel great about him in his next two matchups. |
| Fantasy riser -- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle |
| Both Hill and Waddle saw their target shares spike in Week 14, and I think it makes sense that we could continue to see those two more heavily involved given a look at the upcoming matchups for the Dolphins. |
| Fantasy riser -- David Njoku |
| For the second-straight game, we saw targets funnel more towards Njoku. He led the Browns with a 36% first-read target share and was targeted in the end zone twice. Initially, upon the Jameis Winston takeover, Njoku's target shares were not close to resembling the Joe Flacco era and I became concerned that Winston's propensity for locking his eyes down the field might preclude Njoku from access to that type of target upside. After seeing back-to-back games with a team-high first-read target rate (31% and then 36%) for Njoku, I feel more confident locking him in as a potential difference-maker at the position going forward. |
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| If you don't know about it already, Dan and I created a second Beyond the Box Score episode that is exclusive to YouTube. We've had a ton of awesome guests help us get the show up and running, and we have both put a lot of work into that podcast project with an aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! You can support the project by watching, liking, commenting, and subscribing. Thanks for being here! |
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