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| Monday, September 23, 2024 |
| I just finished recording Week 3 Beyond the Box Score -- a weekly recap show that I do with Adam and Dan on Mondays -- and now it's time to catch you up on everything that I've learned in the past 24 hours! We're going beyond the box score! |
| If you want to check out the podcast version on FFT, you can listen to that here! |
| I can't possibly hope to cover every single question that you might have every Monday, so I created a google form that you can fill out. You can let me know what topics you'd like to read about, and we'll spend more time discussing them in detail in Friday's newsletter! |
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| If you have want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Today, we're going beyond the box score. |
| Fantasy football risers following Week 3 |
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| Fantasy riser -- Bucky Irving |
| It's a no contest between the two Tampa running backs. |
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| Rachaad White seems to still be the preference for passing downs, so maybe Irving won't be someone you can trust when the Bucs find themselves trailing. He may just prove to be Tampa's best option at any given moment, though, we'll see. Things have clearly swung in the rookie's favor with every opportunity that he has received. It only makes sense to expect him to continue to receive more. |
| Fantasy riser -- Ladd McConkey |
| Quentin Johnston is the Chargers receiver who has come down with multiple busted-coverage touchdowns. The receiver who clearly passes the eye test and has incredible underlying data as well is Ladd McConkey. The receiver who I drafted and who no one remembers exists after just three weeks of football is Josh Palmer. Whoops. |
| But hey, this McConkey chap sure looks legit. He's so freaking quick. We find him in pretty dope company when it comes to converting his route running opportunities into first downs. |
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| McConkey is tied with Chris Godwin, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Diontae Johnson for the third-highest target per route run rate at the wide receiver position. Maybe it will never matter for season-long purposes, but Johnston has managed to matter every week. And for Dynasty players, this is absolutely a data point to make note of. The Chargers look to have hit in a big way in Round 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft. |
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| Fantasy riser -- J.K. Dobbins |
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| Dobbins has been so much better than Gus Edwards, and we finally saw the RB rush share reflect that reality. |
| The Chargers weren't able to keep the good vibes rolling in Week 3, and Justin Herbert left with a high ankle sprain. It's possible that the Week 1 and 2 output is the best that we'll see for Dobbins all season. He was never going to keep averaging 10 yards per rush. This is a note about his usage. It appears as if he may have earned something resembling bellcow work. Up until now, the split between Dobbins and Edwards was pretty even. |
| Fantasy riser -- Chuba Hubbard |
| Hubbard is one of just nine running backs who has gained positive expected points added on rush attempts in 2024. Generally, rushing doesn't bring a positive expectation. He's been really good as a rusher and receiver in Carolina's first three games, and we saw his Fantasy upside unlocked with Andy Dalton capable of facilitating a functional offense. |
| Fantasy riser -- Diontae Johnson |
| It's been tough to know what to make of Carolina's 2024, which is surely part of the reason that the Panthers made a QB switch. How can you evaluate anything when the offense is never playing competitive football? Well, Andy Dalton was so dang good in Week 3 that we still don't have a clear picture of what competitive football might look like in Carolina, because the Panthers blew the doors off of the Raiders. For what it's worth, Johnson has wild underlying volume rates in the first halves of games this season. |
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| Even with the offense cruising in the second half of Week 3, Johnson still put together a monster Fantasy performance. It could have been even bigger, too! Johnson didn't quite connect on two more could-have-been touchdowns against the Raiders. |
| Fantasy riser -- Zach Charbonnet |
| Who knows what the split will look like between Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker when Seattle's starter returns? Walker had an 80% snap rate before leaving Week 1's game with an injury. It really wasn't much of a "split" between the two. Walker looked like the bellcow that was promised this offseason. The new Seattle coaching staff seems to be deeply in love Walker, and I can't blame them. He's awesome. |
| Charbonnet may have won their love with his gritty performance in relief of Walker. On average, Charbonnet was hit behind the line of scrimmage in Week 2. With just a bit more running room in Week 3, Charbs went nuts. On the year, he's been one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL. |
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| Fantasy riser -- Jauan Jennings |
| If you sat Jauan Jennings because I pointed out that he had just one career game with more than 70 receiving yards, that was your decision. If you played Jacob Cowing because of how excited I was for the rookie to get his first crack at helping an NFL offense, that was also your decision, but I will apologize. You probably were better off not knowing who Cowing is (for now), since Kyle Shanahan didn't give him even one offensive snap in Week 3. |
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| Bummer. Cowing is a cool player, hopefully he does get to play at some point. |
| Anyway, we need to talk about the Week 3 performance from Jauan Jennings. What on Earth? This came completely out of nowhere. Jennings has been a super clutch player for the Niners over the years, but he also has been historically mid on a per-route basis. Even when filling in for Deebo Samuel, Jennings has not been much of a factor. At the collegiate level, he was never a highly productive receiver. And then, in Week 3, he looked like a god amongst men. |
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| I was extremely impressed by what Brock Purdy put on film in a game without Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, and Jennings played a huge part in that effort. He's a priority add who may just be a highly productive Fantasy WR for the time being. Or maybe we'll never see anything close to this from Jennings ever again. Who knows? Certainly not me! This was the biggest surprise of the season, and a super fun one at that. Amazing for Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and the shorthanded Rams to come from behind and take that W. What a game, what a sport. Whew. |
| Fantasy riser -- Malik Nabers |
| Wheeeeew! We are having fun, right?! I mean, even if you are a total donkey like me and took a zero here and there on Jacob Cowing Week 3 shots, you're still having fun, right? Even if the NFL has forgotten how to produce passing yards, can one really be anything but entertained when we have a healthy Malik Nabers out here creating magic? Whew! Can anyone stop this guy? Like, for real, can anyone but Janiel Dones stop this man from finding the end zone? I'm not seeing anyone come close! Even on reps where Nabers loses, he still is getting his hands on the ball and nearly making a hero catch . Of course, he had the important Week 2 pass fall through his hands. Nabers and Jones may truly be the only ones who can slow this roll. |
| As a draft prospect, there were two unanswered questions about Nabers -- can he win in contested catch situations, and can he beat press coverage? Well, the contested catch answer has been an obvious yes. Opposing defenses have aggressively tested him to find out the answer to press coverage questions. That has not gone well for them. He's been the best player in the NFL vs. press coverage. |
| Nabers looks like one of the best offensive players in the NFL. It's one thing to torch Washington's secondary, but what he just put on film against the Cleveland Browns is nuts. He's winning everywhere, he's electric with the ball in his hands, and he sure looks like a superstar Fantasy WR1. The receivers who I would for sure take over Nabers in Fantasy at this moment are Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Rashee Rice. |
| Fantasy riser -- Rashee Rice |
| Rice leads all receivers in yards per route run in 2024. In Week 3, a game in which Travis Kelce appeared to be upset about his lack of involvement and was immediately targeted by Patrick Mahomes coming out of the halftime locker room, Rice still piled up a 39% target share. |
| Since entering the NFL, Rice trails only Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins in PPR points per route run. |
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| Fantasy football fallers following Week 3 |
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| Fantasy faller -- Christian Watson |
| You might have noticed Jayden Reed's name in that top-12 list that I shared about Rashee Rice. Reed has an identical PPR point per route run to A.J. Brown since the start of 2023. He's so good. And he's playing more than Christian Watson these days. |
| The Packers have been rotating Dontayvion Wicks in more over the past two games, resulting in fewer snaps for Watson and Romeo Doubs. If this continues, Watson is going to be a touchdown-or-bust weekly option even when Jordan Love returns. I expect him to be the top target when Green Bay is in scoring distance, and I expect the Packers to be in scoring distance quite often. But I do not want to be blind to the developing route running opportunities in Green Bay. Wicks has earned opportunities, and Green Bay seems content for those to come at the expense of Watson. |
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| I wouldn't sell-low or drop Watson, but be ready for potential disappointment even when Love is back. He may be *really* reliant on connecting on long targets and end zone looks, and those are inherently volatile types of opportunities. |
| Fantasy faller -- Zamir White |
| Zamir White has a 19% snap rate when the Raiders have been in the red zone. What? I thought that was like the entire thesis behind drafting White. He's not even the goal line back? |
| The usage has been decent for White once (in Week 2) and abysmal twice. If last week's usage is any indication, this is not a player that we should be using for Fantasy purposes. |
| Fantasy faller -- Mark Andrews |
| Mark Andrews played 20 snaps on offense in Week 3, for a 33% share of the team total. He was a run blocker on 14 of 20 snaps. He was credited as running six routes, but he actually was a blocker on a screen for two of those. He ran four routes. Lamar Jackson targeted Andrews on one of those four routes, it was not catchable. Jackson only produced 47 total air yards in Week 3, the lowest mark of his career in a healthy game. |
| The Ravens won't be this run-heavy most weeks. The Cowboys have looked completely incapable of stopping the run (next up is Devin Singletary and the Giants), and Baltimore just decided that it was good enough to repeatedly attack that weakness in Week 3. I have no idea what to expect from Andrews going forward. I'm not sure if he's healthy. I wish that I had answers, but I do not. |
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Team-level information from Week 3
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| Generally, we'll want to target the pass-game pieces from teams in the top-right of this chart and avoid ones from the bottom left. This chart only tells part of the story, though, which is why it's important to also know which offenses can create elite efficiency in this passing game. This chart that I shared earlier in reference to Kubiak is helpful in this regard . Even though the Niners, Packers, and Dolphins lean towards a slow run-heavy approach, those offenses are still capable of producing one or two elite pass-game producers on the weeks where the pass game connects on a handful of explosive plays. |
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| Another piece of the puzzle comes in the form of personnel information. Below, you'll find the percentage of offensive plays each offense ran with three or more receivers on the field. |
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| A high 3+ WR rate = more playing time opportunities |
| A low 3+ WR rate = more efficient routes, generally (less target competition) |
| Below, you'll find the percentage of plays that each team passed the ball compared to the percentage of first downs that each team passed. Ranking below the trendline isn't necessarily a bad thing. Again, if the offense is able to create elite efficiency when passes are drawn up, that can outweigh a lack of overall receiving volume. It's important to understand that offenses that operate that way are skating on thin ice. The margin for error is thin -- if the explosive plays happen to not connect to find form on any given week, the offensive environment likely falls apart. |
| Teams towards the top right of the chart offer the ability to consistently churn out massive target numbers. Bowers leads all tight ends in targets, thanks in part to his offense passing at the highest rate in the NFL. |
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| These rates fluctuate on a week-to-week basis, so I'll update you as we get more data. |
| Alright, I'm outta here. If you haven't listened to the podcast version of Beyond the Box Score, it's good stuff! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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