| |
|
| Monday, September 9, 2024 |
| Even though I know how busy Sundays and Mondays are during the season, I am somehow still amazed when the initial Sunday/Monday turnover arrives following Week 1. There is so much that I want to learn about! We've been waiting all offseason to get a glimpse of how these offenses will operate, and I want to watch each one of them. Well, I don't want to watch the Falcons. And I didn't want to watch the Panthers, but I did. |
| I also joined Adam and Dan for our weekly Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT, you can listen to that here! |
| This is a hectic time, but I do love this time of year. I've been working with my windows open all day because it is absolutely beautiful outside. I'm running on about four hours of sleep, but I have felt energized all day. Even though Week 1 brought us some bummers -- Caleb Williams' debut was a letdown, Arthur Smith got his revenge against Atlanta, the 'year of the elite tight end profiles' ended before it started -- there was also a bunch of awesome stuff! J.K. Dobbins made a triumphant return! Anthony Richardson vs. C.J. Stroud was extremely entertaining! Brian Thomas Jr. continued to look like the stud that we saw during the preseason! It wasn't all bad! |
| Injuries to Jordan Love and Puka Nacua hurt to see, but we have had to deal with much more crushing Week 1 injury news before! It was a wacky Week 1, but all-in-all, I enjoyed it. |
| The weekly Monday FFT newsletter post will be a recap of everything that I learned from the previous week. I'll cover risers and fallers for Fantasy purposes, dig into some team-level stuff, and leave you with all of the usage information that you need to know at each position before we move onto the next week. I'll also include a google form for you to fill out! I can't possibly hope to cover every single question that you might have every Monday, which is why I created this form and set aside time in my schedule to interact with the FFT Newsletter readers every Friday. |
| Each Friday, we'll go 'In The Lab' in this space: |
| |
| If you have want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Today, we're going beyond the box score. |
| |
| You good, Kirk? |
| The Falcons did not use a single play action play in Week 1. Atlanta was in shotgun for all but one play. Pittsburgh's defense was loading the box against Bijan Robinson, showing no respect for the pass. Cousins did not push a single pass 20+ yards downfield. Oh no. |
| |
| Other places in the NFC South, we found Bryce Young floundering, Baker Mayfield thriving (even without Dave Canales!), and Klint Kubiak instituting the type of offense that Saints fans have hoped and prayed for all offseason. |
| |
| Turns out, motion is important! This will, of course, come as no surprise to any FFT Newsletter readers who have been here for all 100 times that I cited this tweet over the summer -- in case you are unaware, the data backs it up -- motion and play action are significant pass game efficiency boosters. |
| Let's check in on the offenses that did not use much motion in Week 1. |
| |
| Yikes, guys! Figure it out! |
| |
| Chris Olave is probably one of the best buy-low candidates in Fantasy football after what we just saw from the Saints offense. Assuming New Orleans doesn't blow every opponent out, Olave is likely to be much more involved in the offense going forward. I'm psyched for him and Rashid Shaheed in this new-look Saints offense. Arrow pointed straight up for those two (and Alvin Kamara, for PPR-scamming purposes) after Week 1. |
| On that note, let's hit on some of the biggest risers in Fantasy: |
| |
| Week 1 risers |
| Rookies! Sure, Marvin Harrison Jr. was a ghost, but we got super fun debuts from Jayden Daniels, Ladd McConkey, AD Mitchell, Brian Thomas Jr., Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving, and Brock Bowers! Rookie fever remains very much alive after Week 1! |
| The rooks are near and dear to my heart, as any FFT Newsletter reader knows well by this point. I'm going to quickly hit on the ones that got to play and then move on to the biggest actual Fantasy risers. |
| |
| Adonai Mitchell |
| Indy's rookie receiver looked to be every bit the wild athletic specimen that was promised during preseason action, and he almost had a huge Week 1. Anthony Richardson put some nutty throws on tape in that game and finished with a hilarious 16.4-yard average depth of target. |
| Mitchell's potential is far beyond what his stat line shows. Josh Downs is coming back at some point, Alec Pierce played well, and both Mitchell and Richardson are likely going to be volatile players on a week-to-week basis. Don't go overboard buying Mitchell. If he's available on your waiver wire, he's worth a speculative scoop! This is just a quick note to be aware of, since we are going beyond the box score. |
| Jayden Daniels |
| He rushed 16 times! He was a ball hog near the end zone. Washington's offense led the NFL in pace of play. I feel very little confidence that the offense is going to work for real-life purposes, but it won't matter -- if Daniels is healthy, the Fantasy point totals that he will put up will be bonkers. |
| Jalen McMillan |
| He led the team in routes run! That probably won't happen against more competitive opponents, but still, McMillan was playing basically every snap with the starters. His first NFL reception was a touchdown, and he could have had another but was prevented from doing so by defensive pass interference. The arrow continues to point upward for the most impressive player that I watched this preseason. |
| Bucky Irving |
| We got "Bucky!" chants from the Tampa Bay crowd in his first NFL game. What a stud! Take it from his coach, Bucky's a ballplayer. |
| |
| Ladd McConkey |
| Yo, it's just Week 1, but this may be my biggest Fantasy draft miss. I was firmly on team Josh Palmer and drafted almost no McConkey. Even when he was cheap towards the end of draft season, I was taking shots on other upside rookies. That may have been a huge miss. |
| McConkey's highest single-game target total at Georgia was nine. He only had more than seven twice. He had a team-high seven targets in his first NFL game. McConkey was on the field for 8 of 14 Chargers plays from two-receiver sets. During the preseason, he played exclusively in three-receiver sets. |
| This is an incredibly exciting starting point for his rookie campaign. Often, we see an easing-in process that takes weeks or even months before blossoming into a larger role for rookies. McConkey may be ready to lead this team in targets right out of the gate. |
| Brock Bowers |
| Bowers registered a 78% route participation rate in his first game as a pro, and he was among the most active pre-snap motion movers for any team. He also out-targeted Davante Adams! |
| That is pretty good for a tight end's rookie debut. The average depth of target on Bowers' looks was just 4.8 yards, and a matchup against the Chargers defense was a zone-heavy one that funneled targets to the short middle area of the field. A lot of defenses are playing this way nowadays, though! On a week where the tight end position was an unmitigated disaster, what we got from Bowers feels like a massive W. |
| J.K. Dobbins |
| Dobbins led the NFL in yards after contact per rush and generally found himself at or near the top of all rushing efficiency metrics. That was not the case for Gus Edwards. |
| Jameson Williams |
| |
| If you've been following my work, you might know that Sam LaPorta became the first teammate to out-target Amon-Ra St. Brown in a healthy game since the Sun God's rookie season in 2023. In the first game of 2024, the emergence of Jameson Williams resulted in another disruption of the usual target flow in Detroit. |
| I have no idea what to expect from Williams going forward, but the former 12th overall pick is certainly among the very most exciting players to watch in Week 2. The Lions used him on crossing routes on 24% of his routes in Week 1, double his 2023 rate. He also saw a notable increase to his hitch route rate. Overall, his average route depth dropped from 11.4 yards to 9.2 yards. In this tweet about Marvin Harrison Jr., you can read about why having such a high average route depth is problematic for Fantasy wide receivers. |
| Demarcus Robinson |
| D Rob was awesome to close out the 2023 season for the Rams and stands to benefit from any extended absence from Puka Nacua. He and Tyler Johnson tied for second behind Cooper Kupp (a cool 21 targets) with seven target apiece. Of the two, Robinson was on the field more, has more familiarity with the offense, and has proven to be a reliable red zone weapon for Matthew Stafford. |
| Colby Parkinson |
| The clear-cut primary tight end option for the Rams, Parkinson played a ton and finished Week 1 with five targets. L.A.'s offensive line injuries scare me a bit for this offense moving forward, but Parkinson looks like a dependable fill-in option at a position that is tough to fill. |
| Tony Pollard |
| This was nowhere near a 50-50 split. Tyjae Spears was the passing-downs back, and Pollard was the lead back. He played 62% of the snaps and had 16 rushes to just four for Spears. |
| Jerry Jeudy |
| With David Njoku dealing with an apparent high ankle sprain, there are going to be a lot of targets opened up in the short and intermediate areas of the field. In Week 1, it was Jeudy and Elijah Moore playing almost every snap alongside Amari Cooper. Second-year wide receiver Cedric Tillman played a third of the snaps. |
| Moore actually ran more routes than Jeudy, but Jeudy was a close second in targets (eight) and air yards (116) behind Amari Cooper. The next four matchups for the Browns bring the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders, and Commanders. |
| Alright, I have two more player-specific notes before we hit on some team-level stuff: |
| You can watch all of Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Week 1 routes here. The way that Arizona used him in Week 1 was suboptimal for his Fantasy outlook, there's no way around it. |
| Similarly, Xavier Worthy was also used primarily as a space creator in Week 1. The main difference was that his coach schemed up touches for him and his QB found him when he was streaking wide open to the end zone. |
| If this role sticks, though, it will be a lot for Worthy to overcome for Fantasy purposes. He ran a 'go' route on almost half of his preseason routes. That carried over to Week 1. |
| Worthy + Patrick Mahomes + Andy Reid may be enough to just buck any previous trends. I hoped for more pre-snap motion and designed short-area catch-and-run targets. You can watch his three pre-snap motion routes here. Maybe more are coming. Maybe Hollywood Brown will fill more of a clearout role for this offense when healthy. I wouldn't bail on Worthy out of fear of this note. It's just worth noting. If you can sell him really high, go for it. I'd trade him for Chris Olave, for example. |
| What worked in Week 1? |
| |
| Kellen Moore's offense was fun! |
| The Eagles used motion on 55% of pass attempts in Week 1. I would have liked to see more of that go to DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown (you can watch their four combined pre-snap motion routes here), but it worked overall for the offense and that's a major improvement from what we saw down the stretch in 2023. |
| Saquon Barkley looked awesome. The tush push did not work, and there were some disconnects between Jalen Hurts and his new center. Overall, I thought this was one of the most cohesive offenses that I watched. I've watched about half of the offenses at this point. Philly's looked like it could be really good. |
| Joe Mixon and Rhamondre Stevenson looked much more explosive in new rushing schemes! |
| Shoutout my guy Dan for being all over the Joe Mixon transition to the zone-blocking scheme and shoutout me for being into Stevenson in Alex Van Pelt's system. It wasn't just the offensive fit in Week 1, though. Both backs played much better than in 2023. Stevenson gained 118 of his 120 rushing yards after contact, and Mixon was the only other back with 100+ yards after contact. |
| The Saints offense, but we already hit on that! |
| |
| We'll wrap up team-level stuff with a couple of charts: |
| Below, you'll find the percentage of offensive plays each offense ran with three or more receivers on the field. |
| |
| Reminder: |
| A high 3+ WR rate = more playing time opportunities |
| A low 3+ WR rate = more efficient routes, generally (less target competition) |
| Below, you'll find the percentage of plays that each team passed the ball compared to the percentage of first downs that each team passed. We saw Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, and Joe Mixon leaned on heavily in all situations, especially first downs. |
| |
| These rates fluctuate on a week-to-week basis, so I'll update you as we get more data. |
| Alright, I'm outta here. If you haven't listened to the podcast version of Beyond the Box Score, it's good stuff! And if you want to learn about what went into one of the grossest weeks in recent history at the quarterback position, I created a thread detailing each quarterback's underlying Week 1 information. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
| |
| | | | | Golazo Network | | 24/7 Sports News | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | Stream CBS Sports HQ, your free, 24/7 snapshot of all the sports that matter to you. Catch highlights, in-depth analysis & breaking news anywhere you are. Download the CBS Sports App to watch today.
Watch Free
|
|
| |
| |
