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Monday, September 16, 2024
I just finished recording Week 2 Beyond the Box Score -- a weekly recap show that I do with Adam and Dan on Mondays -- and now it's time to catch you up on everything that I've learned in the past 24 hours! We're going beyond the box score!
If you want to check out the podcast version on FFT, you can listen to that here!
I can't possibly hope to cover every single question that you might have every Monday, so I created a google form that you can fill out. You can let me know what topics you'd like to read about, and we'll spend more time discussing them in detail in Friday's newsletter!
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Today, we're going beyond the box score.
What worked in the NFL in Week 2?
Klint Kubiak's Saints offense is cooking
Even in a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, the Saints again put 40+ points on the board. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has access to the pass game cheat codes. He must be an FFT Newsletter reader.
We've never seen anything like this before. The highest percentage of plays involving both pre-snap motion and play action prior to 2024 was 32%. Kubiak's Saints have a 42% rate through two games.
Drew Petzing's Arizona Cardinals offense is so fun
I couldn't stop talking about the run-game design from Petzing in Week 1 (here's a fun clip ), but truly no one other than my guy Dan Schneier gave a crap. The Cardinals?! You mean the team that drafted the colossal bust at wide receiver? Nobody wants to hear about run game design, we're too busy talking about what miles per hour Marvin Harrison Jr. was clocked at as he ran a bunch of curls in Week 1.
Well, only the Saints put more points on the board than the Cardinals (41) in Week 2. This offense has so many layers to it. Here's a look at Petzing's pin-pull action setting the edge for a big James Conner run in Week 2. Conner has looked fantastic to start the season, and he is absolutely boosted by playing for one of the most creative and adaptive play-designers and play-callers on planet Earth.
Ryan Grubb's Seattle Seahawks offense has shown flashes of brilliance
Geno Smith was cooking in Week 2.
In Week 1, we saw Grubb's design result in a new career-low rate of opponent stacked boxes for Kenneth Walker in the run game. In Week 2, the passing game came to life.
Grubb's offensive design offers an ability to attack every blade of grass. We've never seen DK Metcalf used this way. This is really exciting for all members of Seattle's offense. If the offensive line can give Geno Smith time to make his reads, the Seahawks could be one of the NFL's most high-flying offenses.
On that note, lets hit on the individual players who saw the biggest boosts in perceived Fantasy value this week.
Fantasy football risers following Week 2 
Fantasy riser -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Only two players had more air yards than Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 2! JSN?! Air yards for JSN? After posting an average depth of target of just 6.1 yards during his rookie season, Smith-Njigba actually was used down the field in a way that was unique from anything we'd seen before.
More importantly, Smith-Njigba's route participation through two games is 92%. As a rookie, he only ran a route on 64% of Seattle's dropbacks. This is a huge change!
Fellow Year 2 receiver Quentin Johnston didn't have quite the underlying volume numbers that JSN did, but the former Round 1 selection enjoyed what was certainly his best performance as a Charger.
Fantasy riser -- Quentin Johnston
In Week 1, Josh Palmer was the Chargers receiver who was on the field the most. In Week 2, Palmer ranked third in routes run while Johnston was first. Johnston also led the Chargers in targets and air yards and found the end zone twice. He led the team in first-read targets in Week 1 and then followed it up with a huge Week 2 performance. The Chargers offense has looked great through two weeks, and getting the ball into Johnston's hands has been a clear priority.
Fantasy riser -- Brock Bowers
Last week, the question was "Brock Bowers or Dalton Kincaid?" This week, the question is "Brock Bowers or any other tight end?" The rookie leads all tight ends with 17 targets through two games, you can watch all of those here. And here's a clip where I gave some quick context on how impressive what we're seeing from Bowers is.
Fantasy riser -- Hunter Henry
If you don't have Bowers, he's probably off the table. Maybe you can still get him, he doesn't have monster Fantasy numbers quite yet since he has not found the end zone. But I doubt that he's available given the current TE landscape.
Hunter Henry has the highest target share at the TE position through two weeks (32%) and might be available on your waiver wire. Half of Jacoby Brissett's passes were directed towards his starting tight end in Week 2. Henry accounted for 109 of 149 New England Patriots receiving yards!
Fantasy riser -- Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet can't seem to catch a break with the matchups that he draws when filling in for Kenneth Walker. He got another difficult relief opportunity against the Patriots in Week 2, and the Seahawks let Charbonnet play for 95% of the offensive snaps.
The end result might not look pretty, but Charbonnet did all that he could to make chicken salad out of chicken scratch. Is that how the saying goes? I'm not gonna complain about 17 Fantasy points from a RB that I drafted outside of the top-100.
Charbonnet also ran a route on 79% of the dropbacks for the Seahawks, a higher rate than any RB in Week 2. He caught all five of his targets. For as long as Walker remains sidelined, it appears as if Charbonnet is going to fill an every-down role. He could put up a monster Week 3 Fantasy performance in a home matchup against the Dolphins.
Fantasy riser -- Carson Steele
No CFB running back created more raw yards after contact than Carson Steele across the 2021-23 seasons. You can watch his preseason action here. It was awesome, I highly encourage you to check it out if you have the time.
The Chiefs were mixing Steele in on short-yardage situations even before Pacheco's injury in Week 2. He's my bet as to who will soak up the bulk of the early-down work in Kansas City with Pacheco sidelined for potentially two months. I'm happy to spend a good portion of my FAAB to acquire him anywhere that I'm not already stashing Steele. He's a beast.
Fantasy riser -- Diontae Johnson
We've seen Andy Dalton operate a functional passing game recently, which would be a huge improvement from what has been happening in Carolina through two weeks. The offensive line might be fine with a QB who can read defenses, remain calm as the pocket forms around him, and climb the pocket to deliver to the middle of the field when needed.
Team-level information from Week 2
Generally, we'll want to target the pass-game pieces from teams in the top-right of this chart and avoid ones from the bottom left. This chart only tells part of the story, though, which is why it's important to also know which offenses can create elite efficiency in this passing game. This chart that I shared earlier in reference to Kubiak is helpful in this regard . Even though the Niners, Packers, and Dolphins lean towards a slow run-heavy approach, those offenses are still capable of producing one or two elite pass-game producers on the weeks where the pass game connects on a handful of explosive plays.
Another piece of the puzzle comes in the form of personnel information. Below, you'll find the percentage of offensive plays each offense ran with three or more receivers on the field.
A high 3+ WR rate = more playing time opportunities
A low 3+ WR rate = more efficient routes, generally (less target competition)
Below, you'll find the percentage of plays that each team passed the ball compared to the percentage of first downs that each team passed. Ranking below the trendline isn't necessarily a bad thing. Again, if the offense is able to create elite efficiency when passes are drawn up, that can outweigh a lack of overall receiving volume. It's important to understand that offenses that operate that way are skating on thin ice. The margin for error is thin -- if the explosive plays happen to not connect to find form on any given week, the offensive environment likely falls apart.
Teams towards the top right of the chart offer the ability to consistently churn out massive target numbers. Bowers leads all tight ends in targets, thanks in part to his offense passing at the highest rate in the NFL.
These rates fluctuate on a week-to-week basis, so I'll update you as we get more data.
Alright, I'm outta here. If you haven't listened to the podcast version of Beyond the Box Score, it's good stuff!
If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan!
 
 
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