By Michael Shepherd - July 13, 2022
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Good morning from Augusta. There are 118 days until Maine's November elections.

What we're watching today

A dramatic gap between the president and Democrats that is beginning to show itself nationally has already shown in Maine. Maybe Democrats' hopes in the November election are not dead after all. That is a somewhat provocative thing to say with little good news for President Joe Biden in recent weeks, underscored by this morning's headlines reflecting a 40-year-high inflation rate that raised costs by 9.1 percent over the past year.

Republicans have seemingly had the momentum going into the November midterm elections for Biden, which are typically bloody for the party in power. Democrats are just barely in power of Congress, with a host of competitive Senate, House and gubernatorial races on tap. Maine has two huge elections in those categories between Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage and in the conservative-leaning 2nd Congressional District.

But national polling from the The New York Times released this week shows an interesting pattern. While Biden's approval rating is in the tank, other Democrats in competitive races are proving far more durable. When likely voters were asked which party they wanted to control Congress, Republicans hold only a one-percentage-point advantage over Democrats. We have seen the same thing in Maine, with a recent Republican poll showing a one-point edge for Democrats around a similar question on the Legislature.

The two vulnerable Democrats at the top of Maine's ticket — Mills and Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District — are in decent positions compared to Biden. The governor has led her predecessor in public polling so far, although the gap has been narrow and within error margins. Golden has shown better against former Rep. Bruce Poliquin, another Republican trying to recapture his old seat. Golden's 2020 race tightened at the end and this one should as well.

Make no mistake, both Mills and Golden are in peril, especially keeping in mind how public polling failed to capture swing-voter and late-breaking undecided support for Sen. Susan Collins in a high-profile 2020 race in which she trailed in every single poll. We could be seeing more polling misses.

Biden's unpopularity and the likelihood that former President Donald Trump would recapture the 2024 nomination have both parties deeply concerned about that election. Nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters in the Times polling want someone other than Biden to run then, while Trump has lost support of about half of Republican voters. In Maine, big names have ducked questions on that so far.

In a statement, Golden said he was not focused on 2024, but he dinged his party after voting against their major spending bill early last year.

"If the president and leaders in my party had been more conscious of inflationary risks, and had listened to the concerns about inflation I raised with their party-line spending bills, there might be less hand-wringing right now about who should be running for office in 2024," he said.

But the Biden-Democratic gap so far looks to be one of the phenomena giving the party some hope that they can at least stem their losses in 2022. Republicans in Maine and nationally have been building their case around the struggling president with no incentive to stop now, but candidates looking to distinguish themselves seem to have a chance with voters for the moment.

BDN writer Jessica Piper contributed to this item.

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Our NGA intel

Most governors will arrive in Portland on Wednesday for the summer meeting of the National Governors Association.

— The three-day meeting will turn Maine's largest city into a national political hotspot, drawing an estimated 600 people outside of governors and staff. It is based at the downtown Westin Portland Harborview, although public sessions will be held at the Holiday Inn by the Bay and there are other official and adjacent events at breweries and other spaces in the city.

— The public schedule begins on Thursday. We are hearing governors may be taking an off-campus trip today. Read the agenda.

— Business interests are buzzing about the meeting. Sunrun, a solar battery company that worked with Ford on its new F-150 Lightning electric truck, said its CEO will give a presentation to governors on that partnership.

— Not all governors will be at the meeting. Big-name Republicans Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas will not attend, their offices said. There could be 5-10 Republican governors who do not show up, since many do not pay dues to the association, one party source said.

— It's an opportunity for Maine politicians. LePage is campaigning at a Westbrook truck equipment company this morning with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.

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What we're reading

— Maine's university system is expecting years of budget shortfalls that will hit small campuses hardest. An enrollment drop is contributing to a grim forecast predicting $40 million in shortfalls between now and 2027.

— A deeper look at University of Maine System Chancellor Dannel Malloy's new one-year contract shows a rocky relationship with trustees.

— Sen. Susan Collins of Maine was one of two Republicans who helped Democrats confirm Biden's pick to lead the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

— Poor decisions by the flight crew caused a plane to miss and skid away from the Presque Isle airport runway in 2019, a federal report said.

— State Rep. Barbara Cardone, D-Bangor, is leaving the Legislature to take a job with Maine's court system. Local Democrats will caucus later this month to pick a nominee to replace Cardone in the November election.

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Photo of the day

Caroline leans out of the way at left as Reese and Stephanie batter each other with inflated latex gloves after working on tie-dye shirt projects on Tuesday at Wicked Illustrations in Lewiston. The campers work on overlapping projects though the week, including clay fairy houses, painting, embroidery, finger painting, and origami.(Sun Journal photo by Andree Kehn via AP)

📷 Lead photo: President Joe Biden boards Air Force One for a trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia on Tuesday at Andrews Air Force Base, Maryland. (AP photo by Gemunu Amarasinghe)

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