| | | | Wednesday, December 14, 2022 | | Generally, Tuesday is the slowest day of the NFL week, however with three games set for Saturday this week, we have some practice reports to talk about. I'll go in-depth on all the injuries in tomorrow's newsletter, but before we get to the position previews and some big questions for Week 15, here's a quick rundown of what you need to know about from Tuesday: | | Cooper Kupp (ankle) likely won't play again this season. Not unexpected, but still worth noting. Kenneth Walker (ankle) was a full participant in practice Tuesday, while DeeJay Dallas (ankle) was held out. It's a very tough matchup, but Walker probably belongs back in your lineup as an RB2 against the 49ers as long as he's cleared to play. Deebo Samuel (knee/ankle) has yet to practice this week, and the 49ers are hoping he can be back in three weeks. That would be Week 18, in all likelihood, and that might be optimistic. His Fantasy season is almost certainly over. Brock Purdy (oblique) was limited at practice Tuesday and seems on track to play against the Seahawks Thursday. Jeff Wilson (hip) was listed as a DNP for the Dolphins' estimated participation report Tuesday. I'm expecting Raheem Mostert to be the starter against the Bills on Saturday. Lamar Jackson (knee) did not practice Tuesday, but Tyler Huntley (concussion) was officially limited. He has to clear the protocol before Saturday's game against the Bengals , but this is a good first step. Romeo Doubs (ankle) expects to play Monday against the Rams. It'll be interesting to see what the hierarchy looks like here, since Christian Watson has exploded in Doubs' absence. It does make Watson a bit riskier, given how big-play dependent he's been. | | We'll have Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em column for you in tonight's newsletter, along with Dave Richard's lineup advice and a full breakdown of the injury report tomorrow morning. For now, let's get to Heath Cummings' position previews and my thoughts on five big questions for Week 15 -- with some thoughts on the top picks for 2023 and the fallout from Kyler Murray's injury thrown in for fun. | | | 🔍Week 15 Position Previews
| | | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | "As we head into the first week of the Fantasy playoffs, there are a few must-start quarterbacks you may have questions about. Unfortunately, a rash of QB injuries over the past few weeks may make those questions mostly irrelevant.
The most concerning is Tua Tagovailoa, who has been mostly bad over the past two weeks against the 49ers and the Chargers . This week he'll face a third consecutive road team, in Buffalo, in a game where cold weather and snow is the expectation." | | Injuries: Kyler Murray (knee), Lamar Jackson (knee), Russell Wilson (concussion), Mike White (ribs), Tyler Huntley (concussion), Marcus Mariota (knee), Kenny Pickett (concussion), Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) and Brock Purdy (oblique)Number to know: 116.7 -- Jared Goff 's passer rating in play-action this season; the Jets defense allows just a 69.8 passer rating against play-action. Matchup that matters: Mike White vs. DET (32nd vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: "Mike White. White struggled in Week 14 against the Bills, but he'll face a much easier task in Week 15. The Lions have surrendered 26.2 FPPG to QBs, the most in the NFL this season. White is averaging more than 40 pass attempts per game, and six QBs have thrown at least 40 passes against the Lions. All but Aaron Rodgers topped 22 Fantasy points and four of them, including Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz, topped 26. Just make sure White's ribs are OK before the weekend." | | *My QB Rankings | | | | RB Preview | "When the Bengals lost Joe Mixon in Week 11, Samaje Perine took a huge opportunity and ran with it. In a three-game stretch, he produced 330 total yards and four touchdowns. This came on the heels of a three-game stretch when Joe Mixon totaled 361 total yards and six touchdowns.
"No matter who has started for the Bengals at running back, they've found great success this season. And it's possible both backs will be worth starting in Week 15." | Injuries: Josh Jacobs (finger), Christian McCaffrey (knee), Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), Damien Harris (thigh), Dameon Pierce (ankle), Kenneth Walker III (ankle), DeeJay Dallas (ankle), Jeff Wilson (hip), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle), Khalil Herbert (hip), Dontrell Hilliard (neck), Mark Ingram (knee) and Mike Boone (ankle) Number to know: 5.4 -- Yards per rush allowed by the Chargers defense this season. If that number holds, it would be the highest in the Super Bowl era.
Matchup that matters: Isiah Pacheco @HOU (32nd vs. RB)Waiver add: "Jerick McKinnon . This one has been brewing for a while, as McKinnon has consistently played the most snaps for the Chiefs at running back, but the Fantasy production just started to come. Even if you don't want to start him this week, he should be 100% rostered because if something happens to Isiah Pacheco, it's late enough in the season that the Chiefs might just give McKinnon 15 touches per game. This week he's more of a high-end flex."Stash: " Jordan Mason. Mason is the clear No. 2 behind Christian McCaffrey with Elijah Mitchell out of the picture. We all know McCaffrey's injury history, and Mason now appears to be just one injury away from 15-plus touches per game in an offense that should be even more run-heavy with Brock Purdy at quarterback." | | *My RB Rankings | | | | WR Preview | "One of the biggest questions in Week 15 will be how to deal with all of these pass catchers playing with backup quarterbacks. Surprisingly, I'm not sure you should be that concerned about most of them.
"In Arizona and Pittsburgh specifically, Colt McCoy and Mitchell Trubisky have actually averaged more yards per pass attempt than Kyler Murray and Kenny Pickett. Their targets are distributed a bit differently, which I expect to mean more targets for DeAndre Hopkins and Diontae Johnson and fewer for Marquise Brown and George Pickens. But Pickens' recent play probably had you dropping or benching him anyway." | Injuries: Tee Higgins (hamstring), Tyler Boyd (finger), Deebo Samuel (knee), Amari Cooper (hip), Tyreek Hill (ankle), D.J. Moore (knee), Courtland Sutton (hamstring), Jakobi Meyers (head), Cooper Kupp (ankle), Brandin Cooks (calf), Nico Collins (foot), Treylon Burks (concussion), Kadarius Toney (hamstring), Mecole Hardman (abdomen), Rondale Moore (groin), Corey Davis (concussion), DeVante Parker (concussion), Richie James (concussion) and Hunter Renfrow (oblique) Number to know: 6.7 -- Josh Palmer was targeted on just 6.7% of routes with Mike Williams on the field and 26.7% with him off the field in Week 14. Williams' snap share should only increase as he works back from his injury.
Matchup that matters: Michael Pittman @MIN (31st vs. WR)Waiver add: "Zay Jones. Jones has earned 43 targets over his past four games and ranks as the No. 15 WR in PPR over that span, one spot ahead of teammate Christian Kirk. Trevor Lawrence is coming into his own as a passer and right now he's good enough to support two starting wide receivers."Stash: "Mecole Hardman. Hardman is eligible to return from injured reserve this week. He averaged more than 20 Fantasy points per game in the past three games before he was injured. If he has the same role in Week 15, we may be looking at him as a starter in the Fantasy semifinals." | | *My WR Rankings | | TE Preview | | "The tight end position has been a complete disaster this season; that's not something anyone would deny. But there have been a few bright spots, especially in the second half, and one of them may be a league-winner in the Fantasy playoffs. | | "Cole Kmet has averaged 13.9 PPR Fantasy points per game over the last five weeks. He saw seven targets in his most recent game, which was also his first with Justin Fields and without Darnell Mooney . Those seven targets were equal to a 28% target share on Justin Fields' 25 attempts and led to 13 PPR Fantasy points against the Green Bay Packers." | Injuries: Hayden Hurst (calf), Dallas Goedert (shoulder), Darren Waller (hamstring), Juwan Johnson (ankle), Irv Smith (ankle) and Daniel Bellinger (ribs)Number to know: 12 -- PPR Fantasy points or fewer in six straight games for Mark Andrews. Like George Kittle, it's nearly impossible to bench him, but he isn't doing Fantasy managers any favors.
Matchup that matters: George Kittle @SEA (31st vs. TE)Waiver add: "Evan Engram . It's not just Engram's Week 14 explosion that has us starting him in the Fantasy playoffs. He had 14 points on seven targets in Week 13 against the Lions. The Cowboys have been very good against tight ends, but Trevor Lawrence is on fire and the Cowboys should score enough to put Lawrence over 40 pass attempts once again." | | *My TE Rankings | | Five big questions for Week 15 (and beyond) | | Who are some typically must-start players you would consider sitting this week? | | I'll give you one at each position: | | QB: Tua Tagovailoa – I don't know how much of what the 49ers and Chargers did over the past two weeks is replicable, but the Dolphins offense looks suddenly vulnerable heading into a matchup with the Bills. The Bills allow the fifth-fewest Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and they've given up more than 20 points just twice in nine games with Jordan Poyer healthy. RB: Dameon Pierce – This may be moot with Pierce dealing with a potential high-ankle sprain, but even if he does play, I'm sitting him against the Chiefs. There's just too much chance of this game going away from the Texans, especially if he's less than 100%. WR: Michael Pittman – The matchup against the Chiefs is pretty enticing, as they allow the second-most points to wide receivers. But Pittman just isn't getting any downfield looks from Matt Ryan, and his overall target volume is pretty disappointing – seven or fewer targets in three of his past five. There just isn't much upside here. TE: Pat Freiermuth – I'm not saying you should sit Freiermuth, but he has just three catches in each of his past three games and he's struggled with Mitchell Trubisky throwing him the ball, sporting a 6.9 yards per target with him, compared to an 8.2 Y/T mark from Kenny Pickett. Freiermuth is more like a low-end TE1 for me. | | Which tight ends would you start ahead of Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller? | | In fact, Freiermuth doesn't make the list of tight ends I would sit Goedert or Waller for – though it's close with Waller. If Goedert plays, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson , and Mark Andrews are the only guys I would start over Goedert if he's healthy. He was playing at an incredibly high level before the injury, and hopefully a shoulder injury won't need quite as much managing in his first game back. | | Waller is more of a question mark, both because he wasn't producing near as well – just 9.9 PPR points per game prior to his injury – and because it's fair to wonder how his conditioning will be coming off a hamstring injury that has kept him off the field since Week 4. Add David Njoku, Dalton Schultz, George Kittle, Greg Dulcich, and Evan Engram to the list of tight ends I would start ahead of Waller, in addition to the other ones mentioned. | | Some "Beat The Waiver-Wire" targets for teams on a bye? | | Well, we can't predict injuries, but I'm always going to suggest hand cuffing running backs in the playoffs – I want to make sure potential must-start guys like Joshua Kelley, Jordan Mason, or Zamir White are rostered just in case something goes wrong this week. Also keep an eye out for Khalil Herbert, who could be back from IR in Week 16. | | If you're going to be streaming quarterbacks, Mike White has a decent matchup against the Jaguars, Ryan Tannehill has the Texans, and Daniel Jones gets the Vikings. You'll also want to see if the Saints (@CLE), Titans (vs. HOU), or Chargers (@IND) DSTs are available. | | Top-three picks for 2023? | | This is going to be endlessly fascinating to debate this offseason. The three running backs averaging 20-plus PPR points per game right now are either in their late-20s (Austin Ekeler, 28 in Week 1; Christian McCaffrey, 27) or set to be a free agent (Josh Jacobs). Jacobs could return to Josh McDaniels' offense or find himself in another valuable spot and be the No. 1 pick; otherwise, he might slide, while McCaffrey and Ekeler are right at the age where running backs tend to fall off a cliff without warning. | | At wide receiver, we have Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill above 20 PPG and in their late-20s, while Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are obviously in their early 20s and above that threshold. I think Jefferson is going to end up being the consensus – he's tied with Kupp for the No. 2 player in PPR scoring per game right now while being almost exactly six years younger. Hard to argue with that. | | I'd go with Jefferson as my No. 1 player and Kupp as my No. 2, and probably McCaffrey at No. 3. That being said, I'll have to give a lot of thought to Travis Kelce, who is outsourcing the No. 2 tight end by 101.5 PPR points right now – or roughly the same as the gap between Ekeler and the No. 11 running back, Dalvin Cook. Kelce will be 34 next year, but he's been the biggest edge you can have in your lineup this season. He's been arguably the best pick you could make in the first two rounds for like five seasons running. | | Kyler Murray and the Cardinals long-term outlook? | | Murray's torn ACL was confirmed Tuesday, putting him on a long road to recovery. It's not out of the question he could be ready for Week 1 next year, but we probably shouldn't expect him to be his usual self right away – remember, there was some noticeable rust with Joe Burrow coming back from his torn ACL last season early on, and his injury came a couple of weeks earlier in the calendar. Murray is going to be right around nine months removed from the injury by Week 1, which is the early edge of the timetable. | | The bigger question might be what the Cardinals do around him. This season has been disastrous long before his injury, with Murray and the entire offense stagnating well before their usual November swoon. The Cardinals enter 2023 with the 12th-most cap space, per Spotrac.com, which isn't a great spot to be in. They've heavily invested in DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and Zach Ertz, but Ertz will be coming back from his own torn ACL, while Brown has struggled to stay healthy and produce consistently; Hopkins, meanwhile, will be entering his age-31 season. | | And then there's the Kliff Kingsbury of it all. The Cardinals gave him an extension this offseason, but I'm hoping they'll move on. His offense just hasn't translated to the NFL outside of brief stretches, and the overall regression this season has been alarming. If they bring Kingsbury back, I'm going to treat the Cardinals like a pretty mediocre offense until they prove otherwise; with Murray coming back from a serious injury, mediocre might be expecting a lot, even. Things can change quickly in the NFL, but right now, there just isn't much to be optimistic about with this organization. | | | | | | | | Fantasy Football | | Fantasy Football Today | Marsai Martin, Omari Hardwick and Kelly Rowland star in the new Paramount+ Original movie, Fantasy Football about a daughter who realizes she can control her NFL star dad through Madden.
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