What’s going on here? The UK government dropped its new budget plan on Wednesday, announcing its biggest tax hikes since the 1990s in an attempt to spark economic growth. What does this mean? The UK is a big cheese in the world economy, thanks to its trade links and London’s status as a financial hub. So investors’ eyes were peeled as the government announced its plans for £70 billion ($91 billion) in new spending, aimed at things like education, housing, infrastructure, and healthcare. That’ll be financed by a £40 billion ($52 billion) increase in taxes and the rest from increased borrowing. And the plan goes like this: increases in capital gains tax, inheritance tax, social security, and the usual targets from folks’ shopping baskets – liquor and smokes. Why should I care? For you personally: Government borrowing matters. In most developed countries, deficits are heading higher. Makes sense: outgoings have been greater than what’s being raked in, leading to ever-ballooning debt. Those higher deficits increase the cost of borrowing for governments as investors demand more interest to lend them money. That’s important: the cost of your borrowing – mortgages, loans, and credit cards – is linked to what the government’s being charged. That’s one reason why mortgage rates in the US hit their highest level since July this week, reflecting investors’ concerns that Washington’s spending will increase, regardless of who wins the election. Zooming in: Playing the long game. Higher taxes mean extra costs for companies and less cash for investment and hiring – which doesn’t sound great for economic growth. But the UK government is banking on being on firmer ground by 2029 when the next election is likely to happen. (Remember, the economy’s a driver of folks’ votes.) And if taxes come up short – as some experts have feared – and spending continues as planned, well, that’s a potentially worse outcome for the economy and for UK government bond investors. |