Big-Time Bounce For Mortgage Rates After Hitting Long-Term Lows

In and of itself, today was quite awful for mortgage rates with conventional 30yr fixed rates moving up faster than on almost any other day in the past few years. As unpleasant as that sounds, if you forget about the past 2 days, the average lender is still offering the lowest rate in well over a year. This is how things often play out when the bond market forces a quick move to extreme rate levels. For example, several of the biggest drops in daily mortgage rates have followed quick moves to long-term highs. There are other complicating factors driving the swings over the past 3 days especially. We alluded to these yesterday, but they deserve a bit more attention in light of the ongoing volatility. Mortgage rates moved much more than the Treasury yields to which they're often compared. That is not logical at first glance because the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that determine mortgage rates didn't get hurt nearly as much as Treasuries today. In other words, mortgage rates shouldn't have moved as quickly as they did based on bond market movement. The issue has to do with the structure of the MBS market. It would take a tome to explain all the nuts and bolts, but in a nutshell, it means that lenders often end up having more advantageous costs when they offer rates that end in .125% and .625%. (NOTE: The rest of this is rather technical despite an attempt to keep it as basic as possible. Don't sweat it if you don't understand it.)

August 6, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Big-Time Bounce For Mortgage Rates After Hitting Long-Term Lows In and of itself, today was quite awful for mortgage rates with conventional 30yr fixed rates moving up faster than on almost any other day in the past few years. As unpleasant as that sounds, if you forget about the past 2 days, the average le... (read more) MBS Commentary Slightly Weaker, But Mostly Holding Last Week's Gains Global markets are still recovering from yesterday's wild ride. In general, that has involved gains for stocks and losses in bonds. It's also probably worth keeping a periodic eye on dollar/yen (aka USD/JPY) these days considering the Yen carry... (read more) Rob Chrisman Non-QM, DSCR, Lead Gen, Fee Collection, Regulation Tracking Tools; STRATMOR on Lending Environment; USDA and FHA News “Borrow money from pessimists: They don't expect it back.” We are re-entering conference season, and mortgage conference attendance is all over the map. Some groups have seen a drop. At the other end of the spectrum, the California MBA’s Western Seco... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.52% +0.18% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.52% +0.18 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.93% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.12% +0.37 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.68% +0.07 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.15% +0.20 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.13% +0.34 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 8/6 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.93% +0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.99% -0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/1 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.00% -0.03 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 6.63% +0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.13% +0.02 0.38 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.44 -0.24 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.44 -0.24 UMBS 6.0 101.59 -0.09 GNMA 5.5 100.46 -0.03 GNMA 6.0 101.20 -0.02 Pricing as of: 8/6 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.9042 +0.1097 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.992 +0.064 5 YR Treasury 3.745 +0.099 7 YR Treasury 3.797 +0.109 10 YR Treasury 3.904 +0.110 30 YR Treasury 4.190 +0.114 Pricing as of: 8/6 5:31PM EST Latest Video Housing market 'will see a lot of refinancing' as mortgage rates drop, says... Don't see any reason for the Fed to make an emergency move right now: SoFi'... Fed Chair Jay Clayton on market sell-off, Fed's inflation fight and Google'... Fmr. Atlanta Fed President: Weakening is strong enough for Fed to also cut ... Around the Web forexlive The Fed Put Worked Calculated Risk Blog How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2025? CNBC Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts Marketwatch Six reasons a recession is unlikely CNBC Kelly Evans: Is Treasury manipulating interest rates? Eye on Housing HVAC in New Construction 2023 Eye on Housing Share of Remote Workers Increases Despite Drop in Weekly Teleworked Hours Calculated Risk Blog CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 4.7% Year-over-year in June as "Prices Cool" Marketwatch The Sahm Rule, carry trades and recession fear are more than the market can bear CNBC 10-year Treasury yield rebounds after hitting its lowest level in more than a year Calculated Risk Blog NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased, Mortgage Originations Remain Low Marketwatch U.S. trade deficit recedes from 19-month high as oil exports rise CNBC Correction in the dollar-yen was overdue and may be 'healthy' for markets, former ECB chief says

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