Biggest One-Day Jump in Rates in Over a Year

Mortgage rates were crushed by today's jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls (the main component of the report), came in significantly higher than expected (353k vs 180k forecast) and were revised up significantly for December (333k versus 216k previously). January's jobs data (the stuff released today) is often plagued by major departures from expectations because it's the one month of the year where the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implements new benchmarks based on a comprehensive count of jobs conducted in March of the previous year. To understand this better, consider the changing composition of jobs over time. BLS adjusts job counts based on how big a percentage a certain industry accounts for. Let's imagine social media were invented overnight and thousands of people quit regular jobs to become social media influencers. Because there wouldn't be any track record of "social media influencer" in the BLS benchmarks in the first year, it would look like a lot of people lost jobs and didn't find new ones. Then when BLS does the full count in March, they'd find that influencers were prevalent and the numbers would be revised. If you'd like to see the actual changes in each industry category, BLS publishes the data here: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm Benchmark revisions, alone, don't explain the wild results today, but they help explain why results have been a bit more wild than their normal range amid the changing landscape of the post-pandemic economy. The more rapidly the composition of the economy changes, the more we'll see volatility like this in the numbers.

February 2, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Biggest One-Day Jump in Rates in Over a Year Mortgage rates were crushed by today's jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls (the main component of the report), came in significantly higher than expected (353k vs 180k forecast) and were revised up significantly for December (333k versus 216k ... (read more) MBS Commentary Predictable Reaction to Unpredictable Jobs Report It's not really an exaggeration to say "no one saw it coming" with respect to this morning's jobs report. NFP hit 353k versus a forecast of 180k. 100k+ beats happen, but not enough for economists to set their forecasts at those levels.&nb... (read more) Rob Chrisman Profitability, No Cost Credit Reports, VA Training Tools; Demographic News; Strong Jobs Data Hits Rates Although he is correct less than half the time, groundhog Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow this morning, meaning an early spring is likely. At the other end of the “cute spectrum,” Elon Musk is increasing his control of the roads with Tesla, i... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.92% +0.29% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.92% +0.29 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.25% +0.30 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.18% +0.18 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.28% +0.16 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.45% +0.34 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.22% +0.18 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/2 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.25% +0.30% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.63% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.94% -0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/1 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.78% +0.03 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.31% +0.07 0.59 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.94% +0.08 0.46 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/24 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.84 -0.53 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.84 -0.53 UMBS 6.0 101.05 -0.38 GNMA 5.5 100.27 -0.41 GNMA 6.0 101.19 -0.28 Pricing as of: 2/2 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.0240 +0.1400 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.372 +0.161 5 YR Treasury 3.988 +0.170 7 YR Treasury 4.012 +0.161 10 YR Treasury 4.024 +0.140 30 YR Treasury 4.222 +0.100 Pricing as of: 2/2 5:31PM EST Latest Video No one predicted a jobs report like this, says National Urban League’s Marc... Consumers are running out of excess savings, says BNY Mellon's Sonia Meskin December factory orders rises 0.2%, in line with expectations Fed will only cut rates three times this year, says Apollo Global's Slok Around the Web CNBC U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected CNBC Economists say the labor market is strong but job seekers don't share that confidence. Here's why CNBC Rental markets are softening, but half of U.S. tenants spend more than they can afford, Harvard report finds forexlive Banking worries are back and bonds are bid CNBC Fourth-quarter earnings are shaping up to be the best of 2023, but there's a catch Federal Reserve Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement CNBC Treasury yields rise ahead of key jobs report Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 224,000 Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.0% below recent peak Reuters IMF's Georgieva backs Fed's stance, sees risks in waiting too long to ease rates Reuters Traders play defense in regional bank ETF's options as shares sink CNBC 10-year Treasury yield dips as investors digest Fed rate decision, policy guidance CNBC Bank of England leaves policy unchanged, says interest rates are 'under review'

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