Plus, China might actually pull it off |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for June 17th in 3:15 minutes.

  1. China’s latest economic update suggested that the government’s annual growth target might be within reach
  2. How to use fund manager thinking to improve your investment returns – Read Now
  3. Chinese biotech stocks have come into their own this year, pulling ahead of the country’s buzzing tech sector

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In The Bag
In The Bag

What’s going on here?

China’s economic update for May might’ve been a mixed bag, but at least retail sales were bulky enough to fill a tote of their own.

What does this mean?

🛍 Better-than-expected retail sales were China’s star stat: they increased by the most since late 2023. That was partly down to an online shopping festival landing earlier in the year than usual, bringing some spending forward. And tempted by targeted government subsidies, shoppers spent 53% more on household electronics this May than last – a record-breaking uptick.

🤷 China can’t be quite as braggadocious about the industrial sector’s output. While it did move in the right direction, that growth was just okay – likely due to lower demand from overseas.

🇨🇳 Inflation stuck just below zero and house prices stayed on the slide, while the unemployment rate improved slightly.

➡️ All in all, May’s figures suggest that China’s economy might hit the government’s 5% growth target this year.

Why should I care?

For markets: It’s not all about the flashy future.

Investors wax lyrical about Chinese tech firms’… uh, tech. The sector’s been quite literally giving America a run for its money on the AI front. Plus, Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan are more than just tech companies: they’re digital storefronts, too. Now, China’s shoppers have been scrimping for the last few years – but if they open up their wallets, those companies could boast both big AI potential and good, old-fashioned revenue. And that might just make their stocks too attractive to ignore.

Zooming out: Cue the happy dance.

When shoppers start spending more, firms tend to find some extra cash in the office couch cushions and use it to increase their marketing budgets. TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, will sure be hoping that spending is coming. The firm’s latest AI ad tool lets brands make slick videos from a few words or pictures, saving them the big production fees of traditional marketing campaigns.

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FROM OUR RESEARCH DESK

When Fund Managers Whisper, Listen Up

Stéphane Renevier, CFA

When Fund Managers Whisper, Listen Up

Let’s be honest: fund managers get a bad rap.

Too slow, too herd-driven, too worried about getting fired to take real risks.

I’ll admit I’ve always treated the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey – a monthly pulse check with the folks managing over $600 billion – like a contrarian signal.

When they’re too optimistic, I brace for the dip.

But a new academic study says I’ve been looking at it all wrong. When fund managers say the market looks cheap (or pricey), they’re often early. And right.

That’s today’s Insight: how to use fund manager thinking to improve your investment returns.

Read or listen to the Insight here

👀 In Case You Missed It...

Walmart and Amazon might issue their very own stablecoins.

Our analysts are digging into this one: keep your eyes peeled.

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You might’ve cancelled your gym membership and stopped packing lunches for work.

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Plenty of Brits have already put their money to work and seen the reward: there are now nearly 5,000* ISA millionaires in the UK, more than ever before.

This year, put yourself on track to join them. With Saxo, you can invest in over 18,000 assets – you’ll be hard-pressed to find more elsewhere – at market-leading prices.

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Say, “Ah!”
Say, “Ah!”

What’s going on here?

Investors won’t need a spoonful of sugar to help this medicine go down: Chinese biotech stocks have trumped the country’s tech ones this year.

What does this mean?

📈 China’s Hang Seng Biotech Index has risen over 60% this year. That’s big: an index tracking the country’s popular tech sector saw a small-by-comparison 22% uptick in the same time.

💸 This is no medical mystery. The government has long been rolling out supportive policies and investing in the industry with surgical precision. Plus, many of China’s smartest scientists have returned home from the US recently – partly a result of the two countries’ strained relationship. The industry hasn’t felt the heat from tariffs, either: biotech companies rely more on domestic lab work than shipped goods.

🤝 Two American firms signed huge deals in China this year, too. Pfizer spent $1.25 billion on rights to a Chinese cancer drug, and Bristol-Myers signed a multi-billion-dollar agreement linked to another treatment developed in the country.

Why should I care?

For markets: Talk about a fast-acting remedy.

Chinese drugmakers can get medicines to market faster than American and European rivals, thanks to the country’s more flexible regulatory environment. That might help explain why China’s biotech firms are racking up clinical trials and new patents, while US ones are downsizing labs and laying off staff.

The bigger picture: America’s losing investors’ attention.

Many investors have pulled out of expensive and volatile American stocks lately, eager to bank a profit before the next market selloff. Buzz-worthy Chinese stocks are cheaper than US ones right now, on average – and with the US dollar weakening, foreign assets in general appear more attractive. All the more reason to look at China’s biotech firms: their growth is based on medical innovation rather than macro guesswork. Those drugmakers just aren’t really affected by things like the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, which means potential insulation for your portfolio.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race."

– H. G. Wells (an English writer)

Why stocks rise even when your feed screams “recession”

It’s not your imagination – the stock market really can rise even when the economy looks like it’s on the rocks.

It feels contradictory, even risky. But that disconnect isn’t chaos: it’s actually a clue.

In our latest guide, Theodora teamed up with State Street to unpack why the market and the economy often move in different directions – and how you can use that split to your advantage.

They break down how interest rates, investor psychology, and sector trends shape market moves – and call out the ETF strategies that thrive even when the economy doesn’t.

So read the guide (it’s free), and find out how to make smart decisions, no matter what kind of market noise and economic surprises you meet.

Read The Guide

🎯 On Our Radar

1. The tea turned cold. Someone call the 2000s: we’ve lost celebrity gossip.

2. Maybe his horrible taste in movies isn’t a dealmaker. Here’s whether you should – or shouldn’t – be similar to your romantic partner.

3. They just “get” you. Folk are swapping searches for chatbots.

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🇺🇸 How To Navigate Today’s US Market: July 15th

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