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Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. I'm Lyllah Ledesma, here to take you through the latest in crypto markets, news and insights. In today's newsletter: |
- Price Point: Bitcoin clings to $19K, and some analysts are seeing outflows from exchange wallets as a reason to be bullish. But global markets remain on tenterhooks. Also, Mango, a DeFi platform on Solana, gets exploited for more than $100M, sending the MNGO token into a tailspin.
- Market Moves: Bitcoin’s volatility has only one way to go – up. That’s the signal being sent by the cryptocurrency’s Bollinger bands, which help investors to gauge the size of daily price swings. Omkar Godbole reports.
- Chart of the Day: Solana's total value locked has declined from $1.3 billion to $1 billion, with Mango losing $104 million in an exploit.
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Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, remains at the $19,000 level after hitting a low of $18,860 on Tuesday. The cryptocurrency has been holding fairly resilient recently, compared to the rest of financial markets: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined Tuesday in a volatile session, with the Nasdaq falling into its second bear market of the year. On Wednesday, U.S. stocks appeared on track for a modest recovery. According to Bitfinex analysts, bitcoin might be gearing up for a significant price move, with coins apparently being pulled down from centralized exchanges; that’s typically seen as moving the cryptocurrency to storage, which means the owners have little intention of selling out of positions anytime soon. The largest bitcoin outflows in the last three months occurred over three days during the last week (Oct. 1-4), according to data from Bitfinex. “This buying pressure most likely indicates that many traders and investors bought the recent rally and are anticipating soon-to-be new highs,” said Bitfinex. But crypto trading adviser at CEC Capital Laurent Kssis, predicts the move will be downward. “The crypto market is currently unfavorable as a protection of any sort and it seems people are purely speculating that a rally will occur,” said Kssis in an interview with CoinDesk. “Without any convincing evidence that the crypto market has any impetus I remain bearish for the near term.” Ether (ETH) gained 2% on the day, holding the $1,300 level. Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR), a distributed ledger technology, surged 10%. |
Mango, a decentralized finance platform hosted on the Solana blockchain, has been exploited for over $100 million, CoinDesk’s Sam Kessler reported. The exploit was initially reported on Twitter by blockchain auditors OtterSec, who say “the attacker was able to manipulate their Mango collateral.” Mango's MNGO token was down over 40% after suffering from the latest massive decentralized finance exploit. Read more about how the exploit took place here. Also: |
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Bitcoin Technical Indicator Signals Big Moves With Some Traders Getting Ready to 'Sell Volatility' |
The Bollinger bandwidth has declined to lowest since October 2020. (TradingView/CoinDesk) (TradingView, CoinDesk) |
Bitcoin (BTC) traders will soon get the one thing they love the most: market volatility. That's the signal from a technical indicator called Bollinger bandwidth, which is used to gauge periods of high and low volatility and shifts in volatility trends. The indicator is calculated by dividing the spread between the Bollinger bands by the 20-day average of the cryptocurrency's price. Bollinger bands are volatility lines placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day average of price. The bandwidth falls, indicating low volatility when standard deviation bands contract. On the flip side, the bandwidth rises, implying a pick up in volatility when the bands expand. Volatility is said to be mean-reverting, which means periods of high volatility are often followed by dour price action, while a low volatility environment usually ends with increased price turbulence. Since the end of June, the bitcoin market has seen a volatility meltdown, with the bandwidth indicator falling from 0.76 to 0.08, the lowest since October 2020. Therefore, a big move in either direction appears overdue – more so, as historically, below-0.10 readings on the bandwidth have marked an explosion in price volatility. Read the full story here. |
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Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive, and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk Market Index is a broad-market index of digital assets, weighted by market capitalization. A full description of the methodology is here. |
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Solana's TVL Drops to $1B After Mango Exploit |
The total value locked (TVL) in Solana-based DeFi ecosystem has slipped to lowest since July 2021. Source: DefiLlama |
- Mango Markets, a Solana-based decentralized exchange, apparently accounted for 8% of the total TVL locked in the Solana DeFi ecosystem before it was exploited early Wednesday.
- Solana's TVL has declined from $1.3 billion to $1 billion, with Mango losing $104 million in an exploit.
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Check out the CoinDesk TV show “First Mover,” hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and Lawrence Lewitinn at 9 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. |
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- Arjun Sethi, CEO, Tribe Capital
- Andy Chatham, Co-founder, Dimo
- Aaron Nevin, Founder, Moon Mortgage
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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