Bitcoin (BTC) bulls still seem to be in control. The largest cryptocurrency posted a record-high daily close on Tuesday, at $106,830, as it extends its strong upward momentum with minimal pullbacks, putting the previous all-time high of just over $109,000 from Jan. 20 well within reach.

May 21, 2025

 

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What to know:

 

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

 

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls still seem to be in control. The largest cryptocurrency posted a record-high daily close on Tuesday, at $106,830, as it extends its strong upward momentum with minimal pullbacks, putting the previous all-time high of just over $109,000 from Jan. 20 well within reach.

This price action has significantly boosted bitcoin-leveraged equities, with Japan’s MetaPlanet (3350) standing out — its stock has surged 160% in 2025 alone. Strategy (MSTR), the poster boy for bitcoin buying, has added 44%.

 

MetaPlanet has repeatedly hit Japan’s daily limit-up threshold within minutes of market open, effectively freezing upward trading for the day and fueling what resembles a slow-motion short squeeze.

 

Speculation around MetaPlanet’s aggressive bitcoin accumulation, as indicated by metrics like Days to Cover mNAV, is driving investor frenzy. Still, CEO Simon Gerovich recently posted on X that MetaPlanet is now the most shorted stock in Japan, with 25% of outstanding shares held short.

 

Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions add to the complexity.

 

Japanese bond yields are spiking, with the 30-year yield climbing above 3.1% and the 10-year surpassing 1.5% — the highest since 2008. In the U.K., inflation unexpectedly climbed to a 15-month high, pushing the 10-year gilt yield toward the critical 5% level.

With bitcoin nearing new highs amid rising global yields and persistent inflationary pressures, markets are entering a phase of heightened volatility that demands keen attention. Stay alert!

 

A message from Galaxy

Galaxy Now Trading on Nasdaq — Ticker: GLXY

Bringing digital assets and AI infrastructure to the forefront of U.S. markets

 

Galaxy (Nasdaq: GLXY) is trading on Nasdaq, marking a milestone for a company operating at the forefront of digital assets and artificial intelligence.

 

Founded in 2018 by billionaire investor Mike Novogratz, Galaxy has grown into a global platform offering institutional trading, asset management, lending, tokenization, and crypto ETFs. Its derivatives desk recorded over $20 billion in volume last year, and it ranks among the largest crypto lenders worldwide.

 

Galaxy is also expanding into AI infrastructure. Its Helios data center in West Texas is being repurposed from supporting BTC mining to high-performance compute, with a 15-year partnership to host CoreWeave’s AI workloads that will create a diversified source of predictable revenue that is uncorrelated to the prices of digital assets.

 

Find us on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY and learn more about how Galaxy is building the future of finance and AI at www.galaxy.com.

 

 

 

Important Disclosures

This announcement shall not constitute a solicitation of a proxy, consent or authorization with respect to any securities. In addition, this announcement does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction. No securities commission or securities regulatory authority in the United States or any other jurisdiction has in any way passed upon the merits of the Reorganization or the accuracy or adequacy of this communication.

 

Certain statements in these materials constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (“PLSRA”), Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). In some cases, you can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as “may,” “might,” “will,” “should,” “expects,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “predicts,” “potential” or “continue,” the negative of these terms and other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions about us, may include projections of Galaxy Digital Inc.’s (the “Company”) future financial performance or results, our anticipated growth strategies, anticipated trends in our business or future events and circumstances. These statements are only predictions based on the Company's current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections about future events and trends that may affect the business, results of operations, financial condition and prospects. And as a result, these statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Company and which may cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. For a further discussion of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please see the section titled “Risk Factors” in Part II, Item 1A of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2025. Forward-looking statements are provided as a general guide only, and should not be relied on as an indication or guarantee of future performance. They can be affected by inaccurate assumptions we might make or by known or unknown risks or uncertainties. Given these uncertainties, recipients are cautioned to not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Subject to any continuing obligations under applicable law the Company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements in these materials to reflect any change in expectations in relation to such forward-looking statements or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.

 

Overnight Flows

 

What to Watch

Crypto:

  • May 22: Bitcoin Pizza Day.
  • May 22: Top 220 TRUMP token holders will attend a gala dinner hosted by President Trump at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington.
  • May 30: The second round of FTX repayments starts.

Macro

  • Day 2 of 3: Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will co-host the three-day meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Banff, Alberta.
  • May 21, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases retail sales data.
    • Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • Retail Sales YoY Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. -1.1%
  • May 22, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (final) Q1 GDP growth data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.6%
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 0.5%
  • May 22, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases April producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Est. -0.5% vs. Prev. 0.5%.
    • PPI YoY Prev. 4.7%.
  • May 22, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 17.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 230K vs. Prev. 229K

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

  • May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.88

 

Token Events

Governance Votes & Calls

  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on launching “The Watchdog,” a 400,000-ARB bounty program to reward community sleuths for uncovering misuse of the hundreds of millions in grants, incentives and service budgets the DAO has deployed. Voting ends May 23.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on a constitutional AIP to upgrade Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova to ArbOS 40, “Callisto.” bringing them in line with Ethereum’s May 7 Pectra upgrade. The proposal schedules activation for June 17, and voting ends May 29.
  • May 21, 11 a.m: Maple to host an X spaces session to “unveil the next chapter of Maple.”
  • May 22: Official Trump to announce its “next Era” at the day of the dinner for the largest token holders.
  • June 10: Ether.fi to host an analyst call followed by a Q&A session.

Unlocks

  • May 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $22.58 million.
  • June 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.32% of its circulating supply worth $169.38 million.
  • June 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply worth $11.33 million.
  • June 12: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $15.36 million.
  • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $57.91 million.

Token Launches

  • May 21: Mantra (OM) to be listed on Upbeat and the Crypto.com app.
  • June 1: Staking rewards for staking ERC-20 OM on MANTRA Finance end.
  • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.
 

Conferences

You get a 20% discount to the Canadian Finance Summit in Toronto on June 2nd with the code CONSENSUS

  • Day 3 of 7: Dutch Blockchain Week (Amsterdam)
  • Day 2 of 3: Avalanche Summit London
  • Day 2 of 3: Seamless Middle East Fintech 2025 (Dubai)
  • Day 1 of 2: Crypto Expo Dubai
  • Day 1 of 2: Cryptoverse Conference (Warsaw)
  • May 27-29: Bitcoin 2025 (Las Vegas)
  • May 27-30: Web Summit Vancouver
  • May 29: Stablecon (New York)
  • May 29-30: Litecoin Summit 2025 (Las Vegas)
  • May 29-June 1: Balkans Crypto 2025 (Tirana, Albania)
  • June 2-7: SXSW London
 

Token Talk

📍Hailey Welch, aka “Hawk Tuah Girl,” is distancing herself from the failed HAWK memecoin she promoted in December 2024, despite initially calling it a compliant, fan-focused project.

📍On her Talk Tuah podcast, Welch said she was questioned by the FBI, gave her phone to the SEC, and was “cleared” of wrongdoing, claiming she was an unwitting participant.

📍Welch now says she didn’t understand crypto and felt “sick” that fans trusted her, contrasting her November 2024 enthusiasm, when she claimed to have “learned so much” about the token.

📍HAWK, launched on Solana, reached a $491 million market cap before crashing below $100 million within hours. It’s now at $104,000, down 99% from its peak.

📍Welch claimed user losses were $180,000, much lower than the estimated $1.2 million. Her figure excludes 10,149 token holders who never sold, per Solscan.

📍Commentators criticized Welch for endorsing a project she didn’t understand, with YouTube comments highlighting her lack of accountability.

📍Welch’s team previously stated the project was legally compliant with a Cayman foundation and that her tokens would vest over three years.

 
 

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC CME futures open interest continues to rise, topping $17 billion for the first time since February. Meanwhile, growth in ETH open interest has stalled above $2 billion. However, the premium in ETH futures is slightly higher than BTC's.
  • On offshore exchanges, perpetual funding rates continue to flash bullish with sub-10% readings.
  • BCH, TON perpetual funding rates remain negative, suggesting a bias for shorts and potential for a short squeeze should the market move higher.
  • In options, flows on OTC network Paradigm featured demand for calls, especially the $180K call expiring in September.
 

Market Movements:

  • BTC is down 0.64% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $106,257.16 (24hrs: +1.23%)
  • ETH is up 0.42% at $2,525.16 (24hrs: +0.51%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 0.27% at 2,268.01 (24hrs: +0.6%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps at 3.03%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0088% (9.6886% annualized) on Binance
  • DXY is down 0.49% at 99.63
  • Gold is up 1% at $3,313.10/oz
  • Silver is up 1.02% at $33.31/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed -0.61% at 37,298.98
  • Hang Seng closed +0.62% at 23,827.78
  • FTSE is down 0.15% at 8,768.01
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.45% at 5,430.16
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday -0.27% at 42,677.24
  • S&P 500 closed -0.39% at 5,940.46
  • Nasdaq closed -0.38% at 19,142.71
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.32% at 26,055.6
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.26% at 2,631.81
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 5 bps at 4.54%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.76% at 5,914.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.81% at 21,274.50
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.76% at 42,447.00

Bitcoin Stats:

  • BTC Dominance: 63.86 (-0.04%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02401 (0.29%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 853 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.3
  • Total Fees: 6.87 BTC / $717,919
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 157,875 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 32.4 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.17%
 
Register for Consensus & Save 15% with DAYBOOK
 

Technical Analysis

  • BTC rose as high as $108,000 early today but struggled to maintain the momentum, with the hourly chart MACD histogram turning negative.
  • Prices will likely consolidate for some time, allowing a positive reset of the MACD, following which the next leg higher could resume.
 

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $416.92 (+0.85%), down 0.58% at $414.50 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $261.38 (-0.99%), down 0.67% at $259.64
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$30.52 (-3.08%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.19 (-0.8%), down 1.17% at $16
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.93 (-0.45%), down 1.46% at $8.80
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.92 (+0.65%), down 2.2% at $10.68
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.7 (-1.42%), down 1.65% at $9.54
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.99 (-0.77%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $41.88 (-3.21%), up 2.63% at $42.98
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $34.51 (+1.77%), down 1.45% at $34.01
 

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $329.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $42.75 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.19 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $64.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.61 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.47 million

Source: Farside Investors

 

Chart of the Day

  • Strategy (MSTR) has been accumulating bitcoin at a breakneck speed, maintaining the pace even during the March-April price swoon.
  • "From GameStop to MetaPlanet to Strategy’s $60B stash, BTC is reshaping corporate finance. Discover how the '42/42 Plan' could become a blueprint for others," 21Shares said on X.
 

While You Were Sleeping

📈  Bitcoin Sets Record Daily Close With $110K as the Next Level to Watch for BTC (CoinDesk): Bitcoin set a record high close on Tuesday at $106,830 as spot ETF inflows rose and bond-market turmoil fueled concerns over fiscal stability, which analysts say could benefit BTC and gold.

 

⚖ SEC Charges Unicoin, Top Executives With $100M ‘Massive Securities Fraud’ (CoinDesk): The SEC alleged Unicoin misled investors by inflating property values, overstating sales claims — touting $3 billion when only $110 million was raised — and promoting rights certificates with exaggerated return promises.

 

🇬🇧 U.K. Inflation Jumps, Reinforcing Bank of England’s Caution (The Wall Street Journal): Annual inflation rose more than forecast to 3.5% in April on rising labor and energy costs. Projections suggest a gradual return to target by 2027.

 

📊 'Days to Cover mNAV': The New Standard for Evaluating Bitcoin Equities (CoinDesk): This metric estimates how long a company would need to accumulate enough bitcoin to justify its market cap based on daily yield and net asset value multiple.

 

💲 Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Buy America Except the Dollar (Bloomberg): Morgan Stanley strategists expect 2026 Fed rate cuts to benefit U.S. stocks and Treasuries, while forecasting dollar weakness as growth and yield advantages over other economies shrink.

 

🇺🇸 IMF Urges U.S. to Curb Deficit as Trump Tax Cut Plan Stirs Debt Fears (Financial Times): The IMF’s first deputy managing director said U.S. fiscal policy should aim to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio and warned that trade uncertainty remains high despite recent tariff relief.

 

In the Ether

Sacks
This timezone
 

CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.

L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.

 

Edited by Sheldon Reback

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