Europe and US throw down | ETF, phone home |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for November 24th in 3:07 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. US business activity hit its fastest rate in five years, while Europe’s dropped to a six-month low
  2. Bitcoin is looking less and less safe an investment, even as it hits record highs – Read Now
  3. Investments in European exchange-traded funds reached their highest levels since 2019
1.

Workplace Banter

Workplace Banter

What’s Going On Here?

Fresh survey data out on Monday showed that while US business activity grew at its fastest rate in over five years in November, Europe’s dropped to a six-month low (tweet this).

What Does This Mean?

These monthly business activity surveys ask business managers how busy they’ve been compared to the month before, which means they give investors a more up-to-date idea of how the economy’s doing than backwards-looking data like, say, economic growth.

US business activity – which jumped by more than expected – put the country squarely in expansion territory, but both the eurozone’s and the UK’s suggested they’re on track for a “double-dip” recession – or two periods of economic shrinkage separated by a brief expansion. The main difference between the two sides of the Atlantic was in how their services industries – everything from hospitality to accountancy – have performed: America’s rose to its highest level since March 2015, even as the eurozone's shrank for a third month in a row.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: There’s always next year.
It’s not all bad news for Europe: the part of the survey that gauges confidence in future economic output jumped to its highest level since February. That might have something to do with all the promising vaccine announcements – the latest coming from AstraZeneca on Monday – and investors’ expectations that the European Central Bank will pump more money into the economy. The mood’s high further afield too: British and American business managers haven’t been this optimistic in five and six years respectively.

The bigger picture: Sit down, be humble.
Thing is, this strong US report is at odds with some other measures of the country’s economy. Retail sales data came in below expectations last week, while the number of workers filing for unemployment claims has picked up for the first time in a month. So this is when a conclusive verdict from backwards-looking data might come in handy…

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2. Analyst Take

Bitcoin’s Reputation Is Seriously Flawed

What’s Going On Here?

Bitcoin’s price has more than tripled since March – and a near-60% rise in the last month alone has seen it breach $18,000 for the first time since 2017.

But that doesn’t mean it’s actually serving any useful purpose – either as a store of investment value or as a way of buying and selling goods.

See, bitcoin’s fans like to think of crypto as a safe-haven investment: one that attracts buyers in uncertain times.

But both history and current trading patterns show bitcoin behaving more like any other risky bet.

We’re taking a closer look at those patterns in today’s Insight, as well as why the cryptocurrency – even at $18,000 apiece – isn’t ever likely to handle a serious slice of global trade.

Get the full Insight here 

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3.

Cash Injection

Cash Injection

What’s Going On Here?

How’s that for an effective vaccine: investments in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Europe reached their highest levels since December 2019 on Monday.

What Does This Mean?

Investors have been celebrating the good news about potential coronavirus vaccines by loading up on stocks, and boy have they been celebrating: ETFs in Europe that track the value of stocks raked in $6 billion worth of investments last week – by far the most in 2020.

ETFs have kicked off in the US too: investors have put over $400 billion into them so far in 2020, compared to just under $250 billion at the same time last year. That brought the amount invested in ETFs as a whole to a record-breaking $5 trillion earlier this month, partly thanks to the prospect of an end to – *gestures wildly* – all this.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: JPMorgan says…  
Don’t get too comfortable, warns JPMorgan: the investment bank said late last week that it’s expecting investors to sell $300 billion worth of global stocks by the end of the year. Stock markets did so well in November, after all, that it thinks investment managers will rebalance their portfolios – that is, sell stocks and buy bonds to keep their risk in check. And when that happens – by the end of December at the latest, JPMorgan reckons – it could trip up the stock market’s climb higher.

The bigger picture: Goldman says...  
Goldman Sachs, for its part, reckons stocks are more attractive than bonds despite November’s move higher, especially if JPMorgan is right about their short-term prospects. It’s particularly keen on stocks outside the US like Europe, Japan, and emerging markets: they’re lagging behind right now, but the company thinks they’ll catch up over the next three months. Beyond that, the company doesn’t have a preference on region: it thinks all stocks will be looking good a year from now.

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💬 Quote of the day

“We all require and want respect, man or woman, black or white. It’s our basic human right.”

– Aretha Franklin (an American singer, songwriter, actress, and civil rights activist)
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🖕 Take that, debt

Debts can be a real drag, but there are simple ways to overcome them. Winning the lottery? Sure, but it’s a long shot. Maybe just start with our Dangerously Debt Free event…

💰 Dangerously Debt Free: 1pm Miami Time, November 24th
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📚 What we're reading

  • Buy yourself a space selfie (Smithsonian)
  • A bit more soul please, SoulCycle (Betches)
  • It’s a coronavirus-based miracle (BBC)
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