Bitcoin May Not Be Out of The Woods Yet; Stablecoins' Bull Market Continues

The latest moves in crypto markets, in context

February 23, 2022

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Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Here's what's happening this morning:

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Today's newsletter was edited by Omkar Godbole and produced by Parikshit Mishra.

Market Moves

By Omkar Godbole

Bitcoin was better bid while heading into the American hours, with traditional markets pointing to continued risk reset. At press time, the Aussie dollar and the New Zealand dollar were trading higher against the greenback and the futures tied to the S&P 500 pointed to a positive open with a 0.4% gain.

"The market appears to be judging the initial salvo of sanctions against Russia for formally recognizing the separatist regions in Ukraine as modest at best and has preceded to take on more risk," Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex's Marc Chandler, said in a blog post.

Terra's LUNA token, Cardano's ADA and Avalanche's AVAX led the recovery in the broader crypto market with double-digit gains on a 24-hour basis. LUNA's strength perhaps stemmed from Singapore-based non-profit organization Luna Foundation Guard's (LFG) decision to create a bitcoin-denominated reserve as an additional layer of security for UST – Terra's decentralized stablecoin.

LDO, the governance token of liquid staking protocol Lido, dipped to $1.60, trimming Tuesday's 37% spike from $1.36 to $1.87 despite continued inflows into the protocol. "Yesterday, someone staked 28,000 ETH ($75m) with Lido in a single transaction. That's the 5th largest staking transaction into Lido so far. And today, another 22,500 ETH was staked (7th largest)," analytics firm Nansen's CEO Alex Svanevik tweeted.

Also read: SAND Token, Below 200-Day MA, Joins Broader Crypto Market in Gloomy Outlook

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Latest Headlines

Bitcoin May Not Be Out Of The Woods Yet

By Omkar Godbole

While bitcoin is trading higher for the second day, it may be too early to call a bottom as the derivatives market continues to reflect pessimism and the cryptocurrency is yet to take out a key technical hurdle.

The annualized rolling three-month futures premium continues to trend south in major exchanges, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Binance, indicating pessimism among both institutional and retail traders.

The CME futures traded at a premium of 2% at press time, while offshore futures traded at a premium of over 3%, according to data provided by Skew.

"The futures basis still experience a steady decline as the bears show no signs of stopping," Arcane Research said in a weekly note published Tuesday. Basis refers to the spread between prices in futures and spot markets.

Bitcoin futures premium continues to trend south. (Chart by Skew)

The options market continued to show a put bias with one-, three- and six-month put-call skews returning positive values. A put option gives the purchaser the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A put buyer is implicitly bearish on the market.

From a technical analysis perspective, $44,000 appears to be the resistance to beat for the bitcoin bulls. The cryptocurrency recently failed to establish a foothold above that level, as evident from the long upper wicks attached to the previous two weekly candles.

Bitcoin's weekly price chart. (Chart by TradingView)

Bull Market in Stablecoins

By Omkar Godbole

The supply of stablecoins or cryptocurrencies with values pegged to external references like the U.S. dollar continues to grow even as the broader crypto market remains depressed.

Coingecko data shows the market capitalization of stablecoins has risen above $180 billion, marking a 32% jump from the tally of $141 billion observed before the crypto market peaked in mid-November.

"Tether (USDT) is the biggest stablecoin with a 44% market share, followed by USD Coin (USDC) with 29%, and Binance USD (BUSD) with 20%. USDC grew extremely fast in 2021 and has continued its strong growth in 2022 with a 20% growth," Arcane Research noted. "Since the summer of 2021, USDT's growth has stagnated, and it has only grown 1% so far in 2022."

The popular narrative says that the surge in stablecoin supply represents "dry powder," which can be used to snap up cryptocurrencies at cheap prices.

However, that's not necessarily true and investors could be simply seeking refuge in the stablecoins offering protection from market volatility.

Besides, prospects of higher interest in the U.S. could be powering demand for these dollar-pegged currencies.

The OGs of NFTs get animated with the biggest stars from around the world in this entertaining new series from CoinDesk TV. Tune in Tuesdays in February at 4 p.m. ET.

ICYMI

In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:

"First Mover" hosts discuss the global markets with Grayscale Investments CEO Michael Sonnenshein as Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate, plus, his insights on Grayscale's campaign to encourage American investors to advocate for a spot bitcoin ETF. Laura Shin reveals juicy details in her new book "The Cryptopians." Plus, CoinDesk's Ben Schiller shares key topics in Tax Week coverage.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.

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