Dear Subscriber,

By Juan Villaverde

If you live in the U.S., you were likely asleep when Bitcoin (BTC, “A”) broke above $99,000 for the first time ever earlier this morning! 

Clearly, the broader market enthusiasm remains undeniable. Even as the crypto rally slowed slightly earlier this week. 

BTC has pulled back slightly from its new high at the time of writing. 

BTC price action over the past 24 hours. Click here to see full-sized image.

But as the market catches its breath this morning, whispers of Bitcoin prices making an imminent top have begun to circulate. 

Since the market’s recent bullishness has been boosted by President-Elect Donald Trump’s victory. So, it’s no surprise that some traders wonder if the so-called “Trump Trade” is finally running out of steam.

Other traders believe hitting six figures could be a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. They worry that breaching the psychologically critical level could spark a wave of selling as investors rush to harvest their gains.

And, as an analyst who’s been around a while, I understand where this round of FUD — fear, uncertainty and doubt — comes from. 

Consider that right now, retail investors have flooded back into the market. Typically, that’s been a sign of overactivity in the market, since this crowd is known for late market entries and emotional decision-making. 

Just think of your personal communities. How many friends or colleagues dismissed Bitcoin under $70,000 … only to be considering buying above $90,000 due to fear of missing out?

Still, dismissing this rally as a fleeting, retail-driven phenomenon misses the larger picture. 

Markets, particularly crypto, have a way of defying expectations. And retail-driven surges often extend far beyond what seems rational. 

Also, and just as important in my — slightly biased, I’ll admit — opinion is what my Crypto Timing Model says. 

And it has been clear: Momentum may slow down. But my Crypto Timing Model says BTC still has room to run.

Remember, this model called the Nov. 5-low weeks in advance. And it’s called the bottom and tops of the past three long-term cycles accurately. It’s what helps me avoid the same emotional trading retail investors are typically known for. 

And it is telling me there is plenty of fuel left in this bull market for Bitcoin. But that doesn’t mean it’ll be a smooth ride up.

For me, the real concern lies in the global liquidity landscape. Over the past month, liquidity growth has slowed considerably. 

The dollar has strengthened since Trump’s victory, which tightens financial conditions and creates headwinds for risk assets. 

Bond markets in particular are behaving strangely, with yields climbing even as the Federal Reserve has pivoted to rate cuts. 

Source: CBNC. Click here to see full-sized image.

This disconnect between monetary policy and market behavior raises questions about the underlying strength of the financial system.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been cautious, balancing rate cuts and holding firm. Meanwhile, speculation is rife over who will replace Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary. 

Yellen’s tenure ushered in a massive expansion in global liquidity, catalyzing the crypto bull market we’re in today. Whether her successor will continue down this path or chart a new course remains to be seen. 

But, at least for now, the uncertainty hasn’t dampened crypto’s momentum.

I believe that is because …

Crypto Is Betting Big on Trump’s Promises

This rally is driven by sentiment more than anything else. The market is betting big on Trump’s promises: tax cuts, deregulation and even the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. 

This optimism has become the rally’s lifeblood. And while it may lack immediate substance, it’s proving to be a powerful force.

From a cycles’ perspective, Bitcoin still has room to run. The current rally, part of a larger 320-day cycle, isn’t expected to peak until early February. 

That timeline aligns almost perfectly with Trump’s inauguration. A moment that could evoke fresh volatility as the market rebalances the new administration’s actions against its lofty expectations.

For now, the market is riding a wave of hope and speculation. The rally may pause, and corrections are always a possibility. But the broader trend remains intact. 

This is a time to stay focused and avoid getting caught up in short-term noise. The crypto bull market is alive and well. And the best may be yet to come.

If you’re still looking for a way to ride the surge higher, I suggest you watch my latest briefing. In it, I dive deep to explain how my Crypto Timing Model works … and reveal the coin I believe will outperform this cycle.

But you’re running out of time to act. BTC is already knocking at six figures. So don’t wait too long to watch it.

Best,

Juan