Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets June 30, 2021 (Price data as of June 30 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.
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The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges.
Market Moves by Omkar Godbole Bitcoin Set for Record Second-Quarter Price Drop Bitcoin prices were on track for a record second-quarter percentage decline, weighed down by China’s crackdown, concern the Federal Reserve would start tapering its stimulus program and persistent demand for downside hedges.
The leading cryptocurrency was trading near $34,824 at 10:39 UTC on Wednesday, down almost 41% for the April to June period. The drop snaps a four-quarter winning streak that saw prices chart a sixfold rise to almost $60,000, according to Bitstamp data.
The historically strong quarter began on a positive note, with bitcoin (BTC) rallying to a record $64,801 in the runup to the Nasdaq debut of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase on April 14. However, momentum stalled in subsequent weeks as retail investors struggled to do the heavy lifting in the wake of whale selling.
The market, therefore, looked weak and took a beating in mid-May after the U.S. electric-car maker Tesla delisted bitcoin as a payments alternative, citing environmental concerns and dashing hopes for widespread corporate adoption. China’s reiteration of the crypto-mining ban and concerns of an early unwinding of stimulus by the Fed amplified the bearish move, pushing prices down to a then four-month low of $30,000. Bitcoin second-quarter performance (Source: Bitstamp/Data wrapper) Since then, bitcoin has traded mainly in the range of $30,000 to $40,000, barring a brief drop to $28,600 on June 22. Sentiment has turned quite bearish, as evidenced by directionless trading in the wake of El Salvador’s decision to adopt the cryptocurrency as a legal tender.
Moreover, fears of a deeper sell-off persist, according to the so-called options smile – a chart created by plotting implied volatilities against options at various strike prices expiring on the same date. Implied volatility refers to investors’ expectations of price turbulence over a specific period. It is influenced by demand for call and put options.
Bitcoin options smile (Source: Genesis Volatility, @hodlandmotivate) The option smile for short-date and near-dated expiries carries a steep slope at strikes lower than bitcoin’s current price. That’s a sign of relatively higher implied volatility or demand for options at lower strikes than those at higher strikes. In other words, investors are continuing to buy protective puts – contracts that give purchaser the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset, in this case bitcoin, at a predetermined price on or before a specific date.
Currently, traditional markets are showing no signs of weakness. Despite the Fed’s recent hawkish talk, the S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark equity index, is on track to end the second quarter 8% higher, a fifth consecutive quarterly gain. Meanwhile, gold, a safe haven, has erased most of its gains to trade just 2% higher for the quarter, according to TradingView data.
The situation, however, could change if the U.S. economy continues to accelerate, reviving fears of an early Fed tightening.
That said, some observers remain optimistic and are drawing parallels with the price action seen in 2013 when bitcoin crashed from $250 to $45 in April, bringing the bull run to a screeching halt, only to surge to four figures by November.
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Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes, CMT Bitcoin Upside Stalls; Could Find Support Near $30K-$33K Bitcoin (BTC) stalled near $36,000 resistance during Asia hours and could face further downside towards the $30,000-$33,000 support zone. The cryptocurrency was trading around $34,000 at press time and is down about 2% over the past 24-hours. Bitcoin four-hour price chart shows short-term support and resistance levels with RSI (Source: TradingView)
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EIP 1559: Ethereum's Fee Market Upgrade Explained CoinDesk Research's newest report dives into the economic impacts and investment implications of Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559. At its core, the code change is designed to make transaction fees on Ethereum less volatile and more predictable. At the same time, EIP 1559 also poses several risks to Ethereum including risks of miner capitulation or revolt, technological risk in the form of unexpected bugs, and risk of user disappointment. In this report, CoinDesk Research gives an overview of how EIP 1559 works and its intended impact for investors, miners and users.
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