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| | | | I’m going to be in Mexico next week hosting our investor field trip, so these notes may come out slightly later in the morning than usual. | | There’s still one spot left if you fancy a last-minute spot. |
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DXYZ plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange in March. |
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📰 Market Headlines |
 | *past 24-hour performance |
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Bitcoin was the big winner yesterday as it flew past $50,000 for the first time in over 2 years. The Dow rose slightly, and the S&P 500 settled a bit but remained over the 5,000 mark. Everyone is waiting on the Consumer Price Index report due later today. Analysts forecast a print of 2.9% YoY, which would be the slowest year-over-year inflation since March 2021. They point mostly to slowing grocery prices and energy costs. Good inflation data might accelerate the Fed’s rate cut plans. Kalshi is forecasting 3.1%, which feels closer to the mark for me.
Tesla is having a worse month than a company whose planes keep falling out of the sky.
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🕶️ Market Vibes |
🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures |
Kalshi is a full 20bps higher than the analyst forecasts for today’s CPI print. It’s too late to lay any money on this, but I agree with the Hive Mind on this one. |
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😱 Fear and Greed Index |
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🧠 What do you think? |
What will CPI be today?Answer before the announcement -- no cheating |
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🎤 What you said last time |
Looks like most folks are betting on one of the 30 teams other than this weekend’s contenders. | For a hypothetical rematch in 2025, betting markets do favor the 49ers over the Chiefs. | |
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Other teams for consideration, apparently, include: |
Green Bay Buffalo Detriot
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Very cold places will be very good at football next year? |
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📈 Trends you need to know | Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends. | |
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I guess it’s good that we’re all learning about what the CPI is. |
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📊 Stocks |
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Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks. |
Winners and losers |
Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions |
Arm shares surged 29%, extending a post-earnings rally as investors embraced its AI growth forecast. Arm is up 93% since its latest earnings report on February 8. ContextLogic sold its Wish e-commerce platform to Qoo10 for $173 million; its stock soared over 40%. Arista Networks surpassed Q4 earnings and revenue estimates; its stock fell over 8%. Monday.com exceeded Q4 earnings and revenue forecasts; however, its stock slid 10.5% as guidance merely met expectations. Lattice Semiconductor reported a revenue decline and weak sales guidance; its stock dropped 8%. AbbVie cut its Q1 earnings per share outlook due to ImmunoGen acquisition costs; shares slightly dropped by 0.3%.
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Market movers |
Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash drivers in the U.S. will strike on Valentine's Day, demanding fair pay. Cisco is set for major layoffs and restructuring, pivoting towards AI and partnerships like Nvidia. The gaming industry shed 10,000 jobs in 2023, with companies like Riot and Epic cutting back due to overexpansion and failed tech investments.
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Ideas, trends, and analysis |
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📊 Income | | Alphabet and Amazon might follow in Meta's footsteps and debut dividends in 2024. Three REITs that just confidently hiked their dividends. How to understand dividend payout timelines. Enbridge looks strong with a 7.9% yield and a 29-year streak of dividend increases.
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🧠 Errata | Over 20% of the world's migratory species are on the brink of extinction, according to a UN report. Bezos might save $600 million by moving from Seattle to Miami. Southern California shook with 13 earthquakes in 25 minutes, the biggest hitting magnitude 5.0. The Arlington, a ship lost in Lake Superior since 1940, has finally been found. Altman said ChatGPT users generate 100 billion words/day, about one one-thousandth of the total human output. Bill Ackman gave a bizarre — and frankly very sad — interview to New York Magazine.
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📺 What to Watch Today |
This is going to keep getting worse. |
 | Why Americans Are Suddenly Losing Their Home Insurance |
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That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know. | Cheers, | Wyatt |
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