Bitcoin is up. Why?

Crypto has been a bit sleepy recently…

But that changed Monday as we saw Bitcoin (+5%), Ethereum (+7%) and altcoins all on the rise in their biggest 24-hour moves in over two months.

To put it in perspective, Bitcoin ETFs on Monday notched $556 million in inflows – the highest inflow in a single day since June.

And it hasn’t stopped there. Tuesday also brought in another $371 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows. Bitcoin is now up ~9% on the week.

For those people not paying super close attention to crypto right now (we don’t blame you, there is a lot of other things pulling attention away), you might be asking yourself: What happened? 

Like always, there isn’t one clear answer, but a few theories have emerged…

1) Kamala Harris sort of, kind of, comes out in favor of BTC

On Monday, Harris – in a bid to reach Black men that are turning to Trump – among other things, pledged to support “a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency and other digital assets so Black men who invest in and own these assets are protected”.

While that doesn’t sound like much, it is the first time that Harris has proposed any sort of specific proposal that has to do with cryptoassets.

What exactly her proposal means is anyone’s guess, but it was still something.

2) Trump is surging in the polls and seems likely to win

Prediction markets have flipped in the past few days.

Because Trump has been speaking positively on crypto, even going as far to launch his own token, any potential increase in his odds to win is positive news for cryptoassets.

3) China stimulus

China's “highly-anticipated” fiscal stimulus announcement fell short of expectations, increasing the likelihood of a capital rotation into BTC rather than Chinese equities.

4) Mt Gox delays

Mt. Gox, the bankrupt crypto exchange, has pushed back its creditor repayment deadline by a year to Oct. 31, 2025. With current assets north of $3 billion, the delay eases concerns of a ton of supply hitting the markets.

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Big Money is Shaping Politics, and Crypto is Playing the Game Quietly

Crypto super PACs have poured over $62 million into ads in September – their largest monthly spend yet – to support candidates who could pass favorable crypto legislation.

But interestingly, these ads don't mention crypto at all.

Driving the news:

Between the lines: While some may argue that crypto’s bipartisan mantra isn’t as neutral as advertised, crypto PACs are indeed playing both sides, ensuring their interests are covered no matter who wins.

Case in point:

Zoom out: The crypto industry has emerged as the top outside spender in congressional elections this cycle, surpassed only by traditional party organizations. So far, the three super PACs have collectively spent $128 million on independent expenditures this cycle, including $82 million on the general election.

Why it matters: These behind-the-scenes efforts could influence crypto's future more than the presidential election itself.

By backing candidates on general issues, crypto PACs build goodwill and influence. Once in office, these candidates might feel inclined to support pro-crypto legislation, even if it wasn't a campaign focal point.

On the other hand: BlackRock CEO recently Larry Fink suggested that the election outcome might not significantly impact crypto's future. "I'm not sure if either president would make a difference," he said during an earnings call.

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