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📉 Why do some investors think US stocks will fall another 40%?

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for April 24th in 3:06 minutes.

🛍 Come join us on Wednesday April 29th for our next exclusive Finimize virtual event, this time featuring Vogue Business data editor George Arnett. Learn about George’s exclusive research on luxury and retail stocks, and find out if they still make a good investment. See you there?

Today's big stories

  1. Quarterly updates from real estate magnate Blackstone and retailer Target proved some segments of corporate America have held up
  2. Our analysts take a look at an alternative way to make returns in these uncertain times – Read Now
  3. Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse reported a mixed first-quarter update
1/3

Smooth Operator

Smooth Operator

What’s Going On Here?

A promising first-quarter update from Blackstone on Thursday suggested the private equity titan is polishing an ugly situation into something altogether more appealing.

What Does This Mean?

Blackstone reported earnings that were 4% higher than the same time last year. It turns out that the cash the firm made in fundraising and investment management fees over the quarter was more than enough to offset the damage last month’s selloff did to the values of its funds.

Blackstone’s not the only bright spot amid the coronavirus chaos, either: US retailer Target announced sales were up 7% so far in its first quarter, while its ecommerce revenues quadrupled in April. And Kimberly-Clark and Domino’s both reported their own rising sales last quarter – because and in spite of the pandemic respectively.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Cash me if you can.
While Blackstone’s stock rose 5% on Thursday, the others’ didn’t follow suit. The difference might be their relative cash balances: Blackstone is awash with money it can use to strike cut-price deals with under-pressure companies or real estate landlords – boosting its future profits – where Domino’s and Kimberly-Clark’s cash flows both look uncertain after they withdrew their earnings forecasts. And while Target’s growing its revenue, the retailer cautioned that higher costs and increased sales of less profitable products will lower its profit margin – and therefore weaken its cash flow too.

Zooming out: Cautious pessimism.
The recent rise in global stock markets suggests investors are preparing for a relatively smooth economic recovery in the next few months, but there’s a risk they’re getting ahead of themselves. New data out on Thursday showed 4.4 million Americans newly filed for unemployment benefits last week, in addition to 16 million ongoing claimants (tweet this). And with the US government considering even more economic support, it might be a while before the world’s largest economy is out of the woods.

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2/3 Premium

Fallen Angels

What’s Going On Here?

As the economy locks down to fight coronavirus, debt rating agencies like S&P and Moody’s have downgraded US company debt at the fastest pace on record. Our analysts look at the investment opportunities being created.

Get the full story in the Finimize app

3/3

Chocs And Shares

Chocs And Shares

What’s Going On Here?

Credit Suisse’s life is like a box of chocolates: the Swiss investment bank reported its first-quarter results on Thursday, and investors weren’t too happy with everything they got.

What Does This Mean?

Like its US peers before it, Credit Suisse earned more commissions last quarter than the same time last year thanks to a trading bonanza, with investors chopping and changing their portfolios in response to the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

But Credit Suisse makes most of its income lending money to and managing money for companies and the uber-wealthy. And because, peculiarly, the Swiss bank follows American accounting rules, it was expected to put cash aside up front – rather than during the period a loan’s repaid – in case those borrowers fail to pay up. Between covering loans and the drop in the value of its investments, then, Credit Suisse stumped up an additional $1 billion last quarter – a figure that may still rise...

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Transactions speak louder than words.
Credit Suisse said its “transactional businesses” – facilitating investor trading, for example, or advising companies on fundraising – were stable this month. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise: investors may have been encouraged to trade by oil’s recent ups and downs, while companies might’ve been raising money to survive the coronavirus-induced shutdown. It’s also news investors in other banks will probably have paid close attention to, since what’s true for one tends to be true for the rest.

The bigger picture: Another day, another record low.
Fresh survey data out on Thursday showed eurozone economic activity – in both manufacturing and services industries – fell by more than economists predicted to a record low this month. They’ll be hoping the mooted $2 trillion European recovery package will provide individual countries with extra cash so they can kickstart their respective economies once lockdown rules begin to relax.

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💬 Quote of the day

“I’d rather live with a good question than a bad answer.”

– Aryeh Frimer (an Israeli active oxygen chemist)
Tweet this
🤔 Q&A · RE: That Syncing Feeling

“Why do companies buy back their shares?”

– Jamie in London, UK

“Company management teams argue that share buybacks are one of the best uses of their available cash. If they’re confident in the company’s growth prospects, after all, buying shares might yield a better return than a perhaps middling-yet-expensive investment. But the move comes with other advantages too. For one, it’s a good way to reward shareholders, whose own holdings benefit from the sudden surge in demand for the company’s shares. For another, buybacks reduce the number of shares in circulation, which artificially boosts a company’s per-share earnings. And since executives’ bonuses are often tied to both that figure and a higher share price, a cynic might suggest they’d repurchase stock just so they meet their bonus payment targets.”

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🤓 TGIF, right?

Would you look at that, you’ve gone and ticked off another week. You’re doing great, champ. Now’s the time to make sure you have some plans in the diary to make next week flash by too. Keep it up: we’ll all be out of this thing before we know it.

🇭🇰 Hong Kong: COVID-Proof Your Portfolio with Stephen Chiu – 9pm HKT, April 28th
🌍 Global: COVID-19’s Impact on Retail & Luxury – 6pm UK time, April 29th
🇺🇸 USA: Your Money During a Pandemic – 6pm EST, April 30th

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