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Hi Everyone,
If the polls are any indication, President Donald Trump has very little chance of winning this thing.
A website that I really like, more for their interface design than anything else really, is FiveThirtyEight.com, which does a great job of aggregating the different poll data and running simulations on it.
Apparently, their models show the orange-haired incumbent winning only 12 in 100 sims. |
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Do pay attention to what the fox says, though. Underdogs do win sometimes. It was certainly the case in 2016, which oddly enough showed almost this exact figure a few weeks before the election. Here we can see data from this exact same site, exactly four years ago. |
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Tonight we'll get the third (or, second depending how you count) and final debate between the president and former vice president. Expect both men to bring their A game.
As we've mentioned previously, the results coming from both houses of Congress will also be critical for the markets.
Here too, according to FiveThirtyEight, we can see the Democrats strongly favored to win the House of Representatives and slightly favored to take the Senate.
So long as the actual results come out in-line with what the polls are showing, the markets should be happy, except for big tech, which would almost assuredly have a very bad time with an all-blue administration.
In the meantime, the powers that be are still struggling to put together some sort of stimulus package before the election, which is just 12 days away.
Truth is, the president would probably sign anything that reaches his desk right now, but getting a spending bill signed by both houses is something that's proven to be difficult despite the dire situation on the ground. |
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The road to 14k
Bitcoin's massive rally this week seems to have cooled at this point, and I'm personally considering taking a bit of profit at these levels, purely as a technical play really.
As we can see on the chart below, the price has been rising in a rather loose, but clearly recognizable upward channel ever since the depths of the pandemic global sell off of mid-March.
Now that we're near the top of the channel, focus has shifted to the next psychological hurdle of $14,000 (dotted red line), a level that hasn't been seen since January 2018. |
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Bitcoin is up 80% since the start of the year, which should be considered phenomenal by any stretch of the imagination. But why stop here?
Past performance doesn't indicate future returns but something in me still feels that it's possible to see further gains. By the charts, the most likely scenario would be to see a pullback around these levels, the bottom yellow line, which currently sits at $11,000, would be the next notable level of support and an excellent place to build it too.
However, there is a small chance that we see a complete blow out of the double resistance (where the red and yellow lines converge). Should this happen, there would then be absolutely no further resistance levels between there and the all-time high of $20,000.
Best regards, |
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Mati Greenspan Analysis, Advisory, Money Management |
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