Hi Everyone,
It's been nearly half a year since Italy first imposed a full lockdown on their citizens, and most of the rest of the world soon followed.
The lockdowns proved extremely effective at combating the spread of the virus but also came with a heavy cost. The impact these measures had, however, became completely useless after the restrictions ceased.
It's 48 days until the next U.S. presidential election. Similar to the lockdown measures, a U.S. president is only effective while they are in power, thanks in part due to a rapidly expanding partisan division in the nation's politics.
The system is a bit silly if you ask me, but understanding it is critical when trying to forecast how the global economy will perform over the next few years.
Stimulus measures thus far have been abundant, but it's time to come clean and understand that we're not likely to see this level sustained. What's done is done.
Most central banks are now exhausted from printing, and to the best of my knowledge, few to none are considering further shock-and-awe campaigns. Meanwhile, the second wave of the coronavirus is making some countries nervous.
Here in Israel, a new, full lockdown is likely to be imposed by the end of the week, a move that is already known to be a killer of small businesses.
In the U.S., we may see further stimulus before the elections, or we may not. Either way, now that the lockdown measures and the stimulus have eased, life is getting even more difficult for many millions of people across the world.
This is really the time to have a strong stomach, because it does seem like things have a potential to get worse before they get better. One way or another, they will improve.