Jobs Day
Markets in the United States will be closed tomorrow for the holiday, so the monthly jobs data known as the non-farm payrolls that comes out on the first Friday of every month - and is usually the biggest thing that moves the markets on a monthly basis - has been advanced to today.
It is a bit of a surprise, yes. Normally, pundits talk about the NFP from Monday or Tuesday of the same week and the re-scheduling of the same almost has the impact of springing the data on an unsuspecting market that didn't have adequate time to prepare.
Not only for that reason, today will most likely be the most chaotic NFP day ever. As we discussed last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the report, is currently suffering from classification errors in its data, as it's not clear how many people who claimed they are furloughed should actually be considered unemployed. The BLS was expected to give further clarification in today's report, but it's not clear if that will be interpreted as good or bad news.
In addition, many states are now announcing partial or full rollbacks of the rolling lockdowns. So no doubt many people who found a job in June are likely to lose it in July.
Nevertheless, the report went live at 8:30 AM in New York...
