What we're watching today

If Maine Democrats can stave off losses, a money advantage will be a big factor. The party in power would have liked the 2022 election to have come a few weeks ago. Democrats are now trying to run the clock out on a campaign that is shifting toward Republicans at the national level. We have not seen concrete evidence of that in scant Maine polls yet, but it is a possibility.

Republicans have some major opportunities here ahead of the Nov. 8 election. U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of Maine's 2nd District is trying to pull off a difficult feat for a Democrat and fend off former Rep. Bruce Poliquin in a conservative-shifting region. We potentially have some of the tightest legislative races in the country. Gov. Janet Mills is the polling favorite over former Gov. Paul LePage, but few observers think double-digit margins are going to hold there.

Democrats have flexed their financial muscle over Republicans toward the end of this campaign. If they can have a fair-to-middling night here, their spending in October will likely have a lot to do with it.

So far this year, roughly $13.7 million has been spent by Democratic outside groups in the state election compared with about $8.7 million on the Republican side. Mills has more than doubled LePage's fundraising so far, leaving him reliant on the Maine Republican Party and national allies to advertise.

The spending gap is large in the Legislature. Democratic outside groups have outspent Republicans in Senate race by nearly a 5-to-1 margin and are nearing an $3.3 million in spending on the 35-seat chamber. Republicans are in a better position in the House, which is seen as the more competitive chamber, but Democratic groups have now spent $1.1 million to $668,000 for Republicans.

It came quickly. We began to take notice of the race between Senate President Troy Jackson, D-Allagash, and Rep. Sue Bernard, R-Caribou, when outside spending alone exceeded $300,000 in mid-September. That mark is now at $942,000, more than twice over the record for a Senate race and wiith 80 percent of the money coming from Democrats. In the House, Democrats had a modest mid-October spending lead on Republicans. They have now spent more money on their races in two weeks than they had the whole year.

Money has never been everything in Maine races. LePage won twice at fundraising disadvantages, though they were never this stark. Legislative seats are often won on the strength of candidates, but this much money has never come into these kinds of elections. Look to this as an Election Day factor.

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