| Southwest is all turned around | ECB hits a milestone |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for January 24th in 3:07 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a mocha at Zen Café & Lounge in Cairo, Egypt (17°C/63°F 🌤)

Today's big stories

  1. Southwest Airlines saw its fourth-quarter profit tumble as the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max continued to take its toll
  2. Analysts think Tesla’s stock is overvalued, but those betting on its decline could be fuelling further gains – Read Now
  3. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, but announced plans to review its inflation target
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North By Northwest

North By Northwest

What’s Going On Here?

Things are headed in the wrong direction for Southwest Airlines: the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max has continued to take its toll on the carrier, which on Thursday announced a more-than 20% drop in profit last quarter.

What Does This Mean?

Southwest Airlines – which has more Boeing 737 Max planes in its fleet than any of its rivals – saw its expenses surge in 2019 as it tried to cover its costs with fewer passengers to its name. And while the carrier might've reported better-than-expected earnings on Thursday, it still lost over $800 million in profit from the grounding overall.

And the company's not in the clear yet. Southwest has previously announced an agreement with Boeing to be compensated for last year’s financial damages, but this year’s are still up in the air. And given that Boeing doesn’t expect regulators to give the scandal-hit aircraft the okay until the middle of the year, it could be that carriers like Southwest are still out of pocket come peak summer travel season.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Earnings delta.
American Airlines also reported earnings on Thursday, and – probably because it has far fewer 737 Max planes in its fleet – the company fared much better. But Delta Air Lines – which doesn’t have any – is in the top spot so far, beating expectations last week. Still, they might all be in the same boat-plane again soon enough: reports of the first US case of a deadly virus originating in China could hit travel demand, regardless of what planes the carriers fly…

The bigger picture: Less revenue turbulence, please. 
Aircraft-maker and Boeing archrival, Airbus, is setting up an exchange to allow carriers to trade “futures” contracts linked to the price of airplane tickets. So just as airlines use oil futures to protect themselves from the ups and downs of fuel costs, they’ll soon be able to do the same with the swings in ticket fares.

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2/3 Premium Story

Absolutely Ludicrous

As Tesla’s shares continue to soar, analysts keep raising their estimates of what the stock is worth – even though they argue it’s actually overvalued by over 33%. The ironic cherry on the top? Those investors betting the stock price will fall could, in fact, cause it to rise…

Get the full story in the Finimize app

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Party Pooper

Party Pooper

What’s Going On Here?

The European Central Bank (ECB) celebrated the fifth anniversary of its “quantitative easing” (QE) program with a meeting on Thursday, and its one wish was that the strategy had actually worked…

What Does This Mean?

Through QE, a central bank effectively prints money to purchase government bonds from the market, if not other non-government bonds or stocks too. The idea is that extra demand for low-risk bonds (which pushes their prices up and yields down) effectively lowers interest rates on new loans (since existing bond yields can be used as a comparison). That stimulates spending on economy-boosters like car purchases and factory construction, and should push the prices of goods and services up – a.k.a. inflation.

That's, er, not really panned out in Europe. Inflation has remained stubbornly low, and the bloc’s economic growth – having been stymied by the US-China trade war – has continued to slow. Awkward.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: No change, all change.
The ECB revealed on Thursday that, as expected, it’d leave interest rates unchanged, and wouldn’t increase them until inflation improves. But the ECB’s new chair did announce the start of the first wholesale review of the Bank’s policies – including its inflation target – since 2003 (tweet this). If the central bank’s current target of 2% changes, so will investors’ expectations of future eurozone growth and the value of the bloc's currency.

The bigger picture: The next Japan?
Japan has endured years of weak economic growth after its economic crisis in the 1990s, and is still reckoning with inflation troubles of its own. And now, much of Europe’s last (or should that be lost?) decade has set the bloc on a similar path. To make matters worse, Europe and Japan share a slowing birth rate, a declining population, and an aging workforce – leading analysts and investors alike to worry that the eurozone is bound for Japan’s fate.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Even a happy life cannot be without a measure of darkness, and the word ‘happy’ would lose its meaning if it were not balanced by sadness.”

– Carl Jung (a Swiss psychiatrist and psychoanalyst)
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⚡️ Lightning insights

In the US, every economic expansion since 1945 has lasted an average of 58 months. The current expansion is over 126 months…

All good things, as they say, must come to an end. But when, and what are the warning signs? We left that up to our analysts, who’ve laid out what to watch out for before a recession strikes and how to better protect yourself. It’s all in our Pack, The Next Recession – only available in the Finimize app. Read it now

📚 What we're reading

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Image credits: Insomnia Cured Here - Flickr / North by Northwest - Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, Usa-Pyon - Shutterstock | Big Beat Records @wearebigbeat - Giphy, Alexandros Michailidis - Shutterstock

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