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Wednesday, October 28, 2020
There's going to be a lot of news to keep track of ahead of Week 8, and I'll have everything you need to know right here in your inbox every morning. However, Tuesday tends to be the slowest day for news around the NFL, so there's  a bit of a calm before the storm here, and I thought I would take advantage by taking stock at the midway point of the Fantasy Football regular season. 
So, in today's FFT Newsletter, I've got some first-half superlatives and second-half predictions for you. Who has been the most valuable player in Fantasy? What about the biggest bust? And who will disappoint you from this point on? I tackle all of that in my midseason review, along with a few notes on the state of Fantasy Football halfway through this wild  season.
But first, let's catch up on the news you need to know about, beginning with an update on the No. 1 pick. But first, make sure you check out all of our great content as you get ready for Week 8, and remember to send in your lineup questions to Chris.Towers@CBSInteractive.com because I'll be doing a mailbag with tomorrow morning's edition. 
Here are the top news items you need to know about from Tuesday, beginning with a surprise return to practice: 
  • Christian McCaffrey (ankle) might be able to return Thursday against the Falcons — There was a stir on Twitter when reports came out that McCaffrey was back at practice Monday, but he was donning a red non-contact jersey. Tuesday, however, he switched to a regular jersey and was designated for return from IR, a sign he may play in Week 8. Coach Matt Rhule told reporters McCaffrey's chances of playing Thursday depend on how the ankle responds to the increased work Wednesday. Don't lock Mike Davis into your lineup just yet. He should still have a role when McCaffrey returns, but you have to think if McCaffrey is healthy enough to play, he's going to get the overwhelming majority of the touches. 
  • Julio Jones (hip) has been limited in practice Monday and Tuesday — Jones has played and played well through injuries lately, but this is a new one on a short week. At this point, the expectation is he'll play Thursday, but it's not a guarantee.
  • Devonta Freeman (ankle) did not practice — It's not clear what kind of session the Giants had Tuesday, seeing as they don't play until Monday, but this isn't a great start. 
  • The Buccaneers officially signed Antonio Brown — He can't play in Week 8, but he'll likely be available for Week 9 against the Saints. It'll be a short week coming off Monday Night Football, and how the Bucs will divvy up playing time and targets very much remains to be seen. I still think now is the best time to try to trade Brown.
  • The Ravens signed Dez Bryant to the practice squad — Bryant will probably get at least a few weeks to get up to speed, and there's no guarantee he ever cracks the game-day roster after two and half seasons away from the NFL. There is this fun fact, though: He's four months younger than Brown. 
Midseason Review
We knew the 2020 Fantasy Football season would be a wild ride, and it certainly has been. We've had a number of games postponed or rescheduled due to concerns around COVID-19, and of course, injuries have wreaked havoc on pretty much every team in the league. We've also seen an unprecedented explosion of offense, with the average team scoring 25.4 points per game, two points higher than 2013's record. The average game has seen 5.82 touchdowns per game, nearly half a touchdown more than last season, and 3.5 of them have been passing touchdowns — another record. 
Because of all that, the No. 12 wide receiver in PPR scoring is averaging 17.5 points per game; that would've been good for seventh in 2019. And, of course, Russell Wilson is on pace for  an NFL-record 59 touchdowns, while Aaron Rodgers is on pace to just eclipse his career high. Running back hasn't been quite as outlandish, but Alvin Kamara is just short of the pace to join Christian McCaffrey, Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig in the 1,000-1,000 club, which is pretty neat. 
Let's take a look back at some first-half superlatives before I give a  few of my predictions for the second half of the season.
Best Player — Alvin Kamara 
I don't think this one needs much explanation. Kamara leads Derrick Henry by 0.7 points in non-PPR scoring per game, and he's 2.2 points per game ahead of Davante Adams (who has only played four games). He's averaging a career high in rushing and receiving yards per game, and after scoring just six times in 14 games last season, he already has seven touchdowns. There isn't really a close No. 2. 
Most Valuable Player — James Robinson
You could make a pretty compelling argument that Kamara is also the MVP, but Robinson was available in the double-digit rounds even when it became clear he would be the starter. Great value for the No. 7 RB so far. 
Rookie of the Year — James Robinson
This is a pretty strong rookie class with Justin Herbert, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and especially Justin Jefferson making a big impact, with others contributing, too. But Robinson has been a must-start guy from Week 1, and that's what makes him stand out. 
Biggest Bust — JuJu Smith-Schuster
This has actually been a pretty chalky year so far. When you look back at ADP, most of the early-round picks who haven't hit have been because of injury. Among the early-round picks, there have been very few true busts. But Smith-Schuster has been healthy enough to play every game and has just two games with more than 15 PPR points. Things look like they could be turning around for JuJu after his 14-target Week 7, but it's been a disappointing season so far. 
Second-Half Breakout — Marquise Brown
Brown has already taken a decent step forward from his rookie year, but it doesn't seem like that reality has really set in for many. Part of that is because he has just one touchdown after scoring seven in 14 games a year ago. But part of it is also that he and Lamar Jackson have left a few big plays on the field. But he's seeing plenty of targets, especially down the field, and he's being used by the Ravens like a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver. Brown is on the verge of emerging as a high-upside WR2. Buy low if you get the chance. 
Second-Half Bust — Adam Thielen
The Vikings may or may not move Thielen, but it's clear they're moving forward with an eye on the future, and that future won't feature the 31-year-old Thielen for much longer. Given how dominant Justin Jefferson has been, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up taking on an even bigger role moving forward, and Thielen's early touchdown rate has papered over some signs of decline. 
Three Bold Predictions
  1. Brandon Aiyuk is a top-24 WR rest-of-season — I loved Aiyuk coming into the season, and he's acquitted himself very well so far, averaging 8.8 yards per target and showing impressive playmaking skills with the ball in his hands and down the field. It's that combination that makes him stand out, and I'm expecting big things beginning in Week 8 with Deebo Samuel out. 
  2. Jonathan Taylor is a top-10 running back — Taylor has been a bit disappointing, ranking 22nd in Fantasy points per game despite Marlon Mack going down with an injury in Week 1. However, he's gotten better running the ball of late and he hasn't been a liability in the passing game or as a blocker, despite concerns in both parts of his game. Coming back from the bye, The Colts should feel comfortable relying on Taylor more moving forward.
  3. Antonio Brown isn't even a top-50 WR rest of season — I'll own it if I'm wrong, but I just cannot get excited about Brown after watching Mike Evans and Chris Godwin see reduced roles. The Bucs have already seen 10 different players earn at least 10 targets after only 11 did all of last season. I don't believe a 32-year-old joining midseason is going to have a big enough role to be a difference maker. 
We had high hopes for this year's rookie class, but even the most optimistic projections didn't see three Fantasy relevant QB by midseason, but that could be exactly what we're seeing. Joe Burrow has been solid and Justin Herbert has been spectacular, and now we get to see Tua Tagovailoa make his first start in Week 8. Herbert is the best of this group for Fantasy in Week 8, but it may not be more than a few weeks before we're talking about all three as must-start options. 
  • Injuries: Andy Dalton (concussion) 
  • Number to know: 6.6 Ben Roethlisberger's intended air yards per attempt, fourth-lowest in the league. This isn't vintage Roethlisberger, and it's reflected in his Fantasy production. The upside of this offense just isn't as high without the deep ball. 
  • Matchup that matters: Teddy Bridgewater vs. Atlanta — The Falcons allow the most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Bridgewater had his best game of the season against them back in Week 5. We haven't seen a three-touchdown game from Bridgewater, but if ever it were to happen, this would be the matchup for it. 
Consensus Top 12
  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Justin Herbert
  5. Lamar Jackson
  6. Ryan Tannehill
  7. Josh Allen
  8. Tom Brady
  9. Carson Wentz
  10. Joe Burrow
  11. Teddy Bridgewater
  12. Matt Ryan
More than any other position, running back is defined by injuries right now, with 10 guys who came into the season as their team's starter in question for Week 8. The truth is, we may not have a real sense for what the position looks like until Friday at the earliest, and that means there could be some drastic changes to the rankings coming. 
  • Injuries: Dalvin Cook (groin), Aaron Jones (calf), Chris Carson (foot), Kenyan Drake (ankle), Christian McCaffrey (ankle), Miles Sanders (knee), Joe Mixon (foot), Austin Ekeler (hamstring), Raheem Mostert (ankle), Nick Chubb (knee), Devonta Freeman (ankle), Phillip Lindsay (concussion), Mark Ingram (ankle), Sony Michel (illness), Tevin Coleman (knee), Carlos Hyde (hamstring), Jeff Wilson (ankle), Chris Thompson (illness) and Travis Homer (knee)
  • Number to know: 1/86 — Frank Gore has broken one tackle on 86 carries this season, the worst rate in the league. Even Adam Gase has to give Lamical Perine more opportunities moving forward, right? 
  • Matchup that matters: Jonathan Taylor vs. Detroit — You already know I think Taylor is in for a big second half of the season, and it starts with a matchup against a Lions team that allows the eighth-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs. 
Consensus Top 24
  1. Alvin Kamara
  2. Derrick Henry
  3. Kareem Hunt
  4. Mike Davis
  5. Jamaal Williams
  6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  7. Dalvin Cook
  8. Ezekiel Elliott
  9. Josh Jacobs
  10. Giovani Bernard
  11. Jonathan Taylor
  12. Myles Gaskin
  13. James Conner
  14. Melvin Gordon
  15. Todd Gurley
  16. Boston Scott
  17. D'Andre Swift
  18. Darrell Henderson
  19. David Montgomery
  20. Leonard Fournette
  21. Justin Jackson
  22. Carlos Hyde
  23. JaMycal Hasty
  24. Ronald Jones
With Chris Godwin out and Antonio Brown still a week away  from playing, at least, this should be a good opportunity for Mike Evans to stand out. He's been much better in the three games Godwin has missed, with 27 targets, 17 catches, 267 yards and three touchdowns. I'm not sure you'll be able to trust Evans as a starter again, so make the most of it. 
  • Injuries: Odell Beckham (ACL), Chris Godwin (finger), Michael Thomas (ankle), Julio Jones (hamstring), Jamison Crowder (groin), DeVante Parker (groin), Diontae Johnson (ankle), Deebo Samuel (hamstring), Emmanuel Sanders (illness), John Brown (knee), Sammy Watkins (hamstring), Tim Patrick (hamstring), Allen Lazard (abdomen), N'Keal Harry (head), Russell Gage (knee), DeSean Jackson (ankle), Jalen Reagor (thumb), Alshon Jeffery (foot) and Breshad Perriman (concussion)
  • Number to know: 45% — Terry McLaurin and Marquise Brown are the only players with more than 45% of their teams' air yards. Brown is just waiting to erupt. 
  • Matchup that matters: Brandon Aiyuk vs. Seattle — Are you getting the sense that Aiyuk is a good play this week? The Seahawks allow the most Fantasy points opposing wide receivers, and 10 different wide receivers have at least 20 PPR points in six games against the Seahawks. 
Consensus Top 24
  1. Davante Adams
  2. Tyler Lockett
  3. Calvin Ridley
  4. Julio Jones
  5. Keenan Allen
  6. A.J. Brown
  7. Kenny Golladay
  8. Allen Robinson
  9. Stefon Diggs
  10. Tyler Boyd
  11. Tyreek Hill
  12. Adam Thielen
  13. DK Metcalf
  14. Mike Evans
  15. Robby Anderson
  16. Travis Fulgham
  17. D.J. Moore
  18. Robert Woods
  19. Justin Jefferson
  20. Diontae Johnson
  21. Amari Cooper
  22. Cooper Kupp
  23. JuJu Smith-Schuster
  24. Cole Beasley
Mark Andrews was supposed to be one of the must-start tight ends this season, but it hasn't worked out that way. Despite playing more snaps this season, Andrews' 15-game target pace is 82.5 — he had 98 last season. It's been a disappointing start, even with five touchdowns in six games. He needs to start turning things around soon.
  • Injuries: Zach Ertz (ankle), Tyler Higbee (hand), Austin Hooper (appendix), Dallas Goedert (ankle), Mo Alie-Cox (knee), Dawson Knox (illness) and Tyler Eifert (neck)
  • Number to know:  29.4% — Nearly one-third of the Eagles pass attempts have gone to tight ends, despite Ertz' struggles and both his and Goedert's injuries. Richard Rodgers figures to be a viable starter as long as he's in the Eagles starting lineup. 
  • Matchup that matters: Jonnu Smith vs. Cincinnati — You have to think maybe Smith wasn't fully healthy in Week 7, given that it was his lowest snap share and target total of any game save for his injury-shortened Week 6. This is a perfect spot for a bounce-back performance. 
Consensus Top 12
  1. Travis Kelce
  2. George Kittle
  3. Darren Waller
  4. Mark Andrews
  5. Hunter Henry
  6. Rob Gronkowski
  7. Jonnu Smith
  8. Richard Rodgers
  9. T.J. Hockenson
  10. Jared Cook
  11. Noah Fant
  12. Trey Burton
 
 
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