Bond vigilantes are mobilizing (and most traders have no clue)

Don Kaufman here. 

I just finished an interview with Schwab's Trade 360, and I had to share what I told them about the market setup nobody's talking about.

While everyone's obsessing over today's Fed announcement, I'm watching something that could matter way more for your portfolio.

Look, the bond market is in the hearts and minds of every trader right now. But here's the thing – my biggest trade isn't really about the FOMC at all.

It's about spending. And the spending bill that's about to change everything.

They're not going to make that July 4th deadline. Things are going to get interesting nevertheless. I'm going big and bearish on TLT because I think right around July 18th, that "big beautiful bill" is going to see the light of day.

And when it does? Bond vigilantes everywhere are going to send a clear message to the US Treasury.

But that's just the beginning. During the interview, I broke down three trades that go completely against what everyone else is thinking:

• Why the stock everyone's calling a "return to work" play is actually cascading toward a business model crisis – and the September setup that could profit from its fall below $70

• The "pure ugly" chart that's been bleeding for a year – but why I'm taking the contrarian bullish stance that could deliver serious profits this summer (hint: the breakup value alone is probably above current prices)

• How geopolitical tensions are creating the perfect storm for bond market chaos – and why more spending means the vigilantes are about to make their move

Here's what's crazy. On that Intel chart, the sell-side activity has been so intense you can feel it, smell it, taste it. But I think we're about to see some liftoff, even if it's temporary.

And ZOOM? Everyone's talking about returning to work, but where's the new revenue stream going to come from? Everybody that's on it is likely on it right now. Not exactly expansive.

The thing is, these aren't just gut feelings. I've got specific strikes, specific expirations, and specific risk management for each of these trades. But the timing depends on factors most traders aren't even considering.

WATCH THE COMPLETE SCHWAB INTERVIEW HERE

Don't let this market catch you positioned like everyone else. Get the full breakdown of all three trades, the exact setups, and the risk management that could make the difference between profit and pain.

To your success,

Don

P.S. While everyone else is scrambling to figure out the Fed's move, Garrett Baldwin will show you LIVE what the smart money is ACTUALLY doing at 2:30 PM ET. Get the insider perspective here.