| Goldman and BoA’s earnings | Late news |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for January 16th in 3:07 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Bank of America reported fourth-quarter results boosted by bond trading
  2. Bitcoin’s price has risen almost 25% in the past fortnight, but a controversial spin-off of the biggest cryptocurrency has gained 250% over the same period – Read now: iPhone · Android
  3. America’s plans to restrict the media’s early access to economic data may make it tougher for you to trade and invest
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Bond Of Brothers

Bond Of Brothers

What’s Going On Here?

Bank of America (BoA) and Goldman Sachs reported fourth-quarter results on Wednesday – and both had their bond trading businesses to thank for rising revenues.

What Does This Mean?

BoA’s deal-making and advisory business made more money than expected last quarter. And its “FICC” trading segment – fixed income (bonds etc.), currencies, and commodities – did well too, making 25% more than a year ago and nudging the bank’s profit past analysts’ predictions. It wasn’t all good news, mind you: the interest income BoA earned on loans fell as last year’s three US interest rate cuts hit home.

Goldman Sachs’ story was similar: last quarter’s revenue from the bank’s bond trading business was 63% higher than the year before, helping its total revenue exceed expectations. But the bank’s profit fell short, no thanks to the more-than $1 billion it spent fighting a variety of legal battles.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: United they fall.
JPMorgan set a high bar for rivals on Tuesday, reporting the most profitable year for any US bank ever. But between falling interest income and expensive legal troubles, neither BoA nor Goldman came close to matching up (tweet this). Investors duly sold both stocks, which initially fell by 2% – though that may be just a drop in the ocean if US rates fall further this year. And British banks may soon find themselves in the same boat: investors think there’s a 60% chance UK rates will be lowered this month.

Zooming out: Looking for greener pastures.
The world’s biggest investment manager, BlackRock, announced better-than-expected quarterly results on Wednesday, while also revealing plans to make sustainability a more important part of its investment strategy. That’ll involve offering sustainable versions of BlackRock’s current funds – some of which you may be invested in via your broker, robo-advisor, or pension manager. Your wide array of investment choices just got wider…

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2/3 Premium Story

Spinning Off

As geopolitical risks have risen in 2020, so has the price of bitcoin: it’s up by a quarter, strengthening its claim to “digital gold” status. And speaking of controversial claims, the curious case of the cryptocurrency’s “creator” took a $10 billion twist this week…

Get the full story in the Finimize app

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On The Outside

On The Outside

What’s Going On Here?

The media has long been given early access to major economic data releases, but new reports this week suggest it now faces being locked out – with potentially worrying ramifications…

What Does This Mean?

Right now, the US government allows select members of the media to see major data releases ahead of time – think employment or economic growth – so they can prepare their stories. But the US Labor Department (in charge of said employment data) is thinking about getting rid of early access altogether, because... mumble mumble… security concerns?

Clear justification or no, the yet-to-be-approved move could give professional investors even more of an edge over their retail counterparts. Professionals tend to access market data directly, but retail investors typically depend on media updates to make informed decisions – and when time is of the essence, those journalists are far more likely to make mistakes.

Why Should I Care?

For you personally: When the going gets tough…
Retail investors are already at a disadvantage when it comes to making short-term investment choices: “institutional” investors have access to a $24,000-a-year terminal that shows data as soon as it’s released. But there’s more to being a successful investor than up-to-the-minute data. Many investors – Warren Buffett among them – would tell you market prices already reflect the information out there. It’s known as the “efficient market hypothesis”, and it might explain why stocks barely moved as the US and China made their trade deal official on Wednesday.

For markets: Locked out and locked up.
A widening information gap can – and indeed did – go too far. In 2012, regulators realized several banks had manipulated a key interest rate related to $300 trillion worth of loans by submitting false data – and in turn profited from related trading activity. The mooted change to media access is a long way off creating another such scandal, but some would argue it’s a slippery slope that could lead to altogether unreliable economic figures.

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💬 Quote of the day

“In order to be irreplaceable, one must always be different.”

– Coco Chanel (a French fashion designer, Nazi spy, and businesswoman)
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#chartoftheweek

👑 Can Microsoft reclaim its throne at the top of the stock market?

16012020---COTW

Share this chart with your humble subjects, my liege

⚡️ Lightning insights

Microsoft’s most famous business – its personal computing segment, home to Windows and Xbox – is also the tech giant’s least profitable.

The business that contributes most to its bottom line is its services segment: products like Office 365 generate over $16 billion a year. And even though they’re key to Microsoft’s future growth, our analysts aren’t sure they actually justify the company’s stock price. Our brand new Pack, Investing In Microsoft, explains why.

📚 What we're reading

  • The airline-ification of the car industry (Fast Company)
  • How is climate denial still a thing? (New Republic)
  • The tech breakthroughs set to define the decade (Sifted)
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