Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge

Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge 10yr yields are now decisively below the levels seen BEFORE the last CPI report (the one that caused a jump from the 4.1's to the 4.3's). This has been accomplished without any shockingly downbeat econ data, and without the market ramping up bets on a friendlier rate trajectory from the Fed. In other words, it's some combination of supply/demand technicals (Treasury auction composition and Fed QT tapering effects) and, more importantly, a legitimate belief that economy is not at risk of reigniting inflation concerns. On that note, Friday's jobs report is in a position to undo much of the recent improvement if it makes a strong counterargument. The recent data and the bond market response are essentially daring the jobs report to surge. Econ Data / EventsJobless Claims 217k vs 215k f'cast, 217k prev Continued Claims1906k vs 1889k f'cast, 1898k prev Market Movement Recap08:37 AM Stronger on data and ECB announcement. 10yr down 3.9bps at 4.069. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) before accounting for roughly 2 ticks (.06) of illiquidity. 11:49 AM Gains erased in moderate, steady volume, and before Powell testimony. MBS up only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr unchanged at 4.108. 02:37 PM Weakest levels just before 1pm and holding modest gains since then. 10yr down half a bp at 4.104. MBS up 3 ticks (.09). 03:30 PM Near best levels in MBS, up an eighth of a point. 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.092. Shorter-term Treasuries are doing even better.

March 7, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge 10yr yields are now decisively below the levels seen BEFORE the last CPI report (the one that caused a jump from the 4.1's to the 4.3's). This has been accom... (read more) Rob Chrisman Hedging, Renovation, QC, Validation, Verification Products; Investor and Correspondent News and Metrics “I saw a woman at Walmart with March Madness teeth... She was down to the final four.” No one is talking about 30-year mortgage interest rates heading down into the 4’s; many would be happy if they came down into the 5’s. Heck, forget about mortgage ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.92% -0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.92% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.44% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.50% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.25% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.55% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.51% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/7 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.44% -0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.22% -0.04 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.07 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 6.53% +0.12 0.94 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.00% +0.12 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/14 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.69 +0.16 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.69 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 101.02 +0.14 GNMA 5.5 99.95 +0.14 GNMA 6.0 100.89 +0.14 Pricing as of: 3/7 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.0880 -0.0200 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.506 -0.056 5 YR Treasury 4.077 -0.043 7 YR Treasury 4.089 -0.034 10 YR Treasury 4.088 -0.020 30 YR Treasury 4.244 +0.003 Pricing as of: 3/7 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fed Chair Powell: Housing market is in a very challenging situation Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: June rate cut is certainly on... Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: Fed policy is restrictive NYCB shares rebound after troubled regional bank announces $1 billion capit... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4 Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000 CNBC 'Consumers should not worry' after turbulent month for New York Community Bank, former FDIC chair says CNBC Layoffs rise to the highest for any February since 2009, Challenger says Calculated Risk Blog Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in February; Down 13.1% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit at $67.4 Billion in January Calculated Risk Blog Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q4 prnewswire NYCB Announces Equity Investment CNBC European Central Bank holds interest rates, cuts inflation and growth forecasts CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors fret over interest rate outlook Calculated Risk Blog Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly" Eye on Housing Decline for Construction Job Openings in January Fannie Mae Home-Selling Sentiment Moves Higher Ahead of Spring Homebuying Season

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