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S&P 500 5,862 (-1.59%) Nasdaq 18,544 (-2.78%) Dow 43,240 (-0.45%) Bitcoin 84,051 (-0.56%) |
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1. Alexa+ Provides Cash Cow Potential
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Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy confirmed Alexa would be getting a major update. In providing AI enhancements, it could enable Amazon to make up lost ground to other AI chatbots. |
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“I think there’s a sustainable business model”: Jassy believes the changes will help get clients excited again, helping to boost revenue from subscriptions and online shopping. Alexa+ will cost $19.99 a month, though annual Prime members will get the update for free.
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Alexa+ to include LLMs and agentic capabilities: The overhaul of Alexa, which will be able to help users complete more complicated tasks such as hiring someone to fix an oven, has taken longer than expected as the original software wasn’t compatible with AI enhancements.
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2. What You Might’ve Missed on Thursday
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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) dropped over 12% after the market closed despite posting record revenue. Investors were worried about the disappointing outlook for Q1, alongside concerns about continued high operating costs. |
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“Our strengthened platform uniquely positions us to serve fintechs and embedded finance”: Rule Breakers recommendation Marqeta (NASDAQ:MQ) rocketed 21% higher with an upbeat forecast for 2025. Total processing volume in Q4 jumped by 29% year over year, highlighting strong client activity.
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“The fourth quarter was extremely eventful”: A further 11% drop in Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) yesterday saw the post-earnings sell-off intensify. The stock has struggled to find support after the CEO described it as an eventful quarter, posting weak revenue and a decline in annual recurring revenue.
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3. What to Watch on Friday
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The preferred inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), gets released today. January data is forecasted for a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, a fall from the 2.8% figure last month. |
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54.3% probability of a June rate cut from CME FedWatch: With headline Consumer Price Inflation for January at the highest level since last June, a tick lower in Core PCE would put it at the lowest level since June. Lower inflation is a key mandate for the Fed, so a fall in Core PCE could help to support interest rate cuts.
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Updates on proposed merger: FuboTV (NYSE:FUBO) is slated to release quarterly earnings before the market opens. Watch for the growth in subscribers and churn rate, plus any comments on the progress of its recent provisional deal with Disney’s(NYSE:DIS) Hulu + Live TV business.
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4. Buffett’s Time-Tested Road Map for Predicting the Market |
At the height of the internet boom in 1999, the S&P 500 was nearing the end of its fourth consecutive year of 20%+ returns, and its operating earnings P/E was about 27x to 28x. Today’s AI-fueled market has enjoyed returns of 20%+ in three out of the last four years, while trailing operating earnings for the S&P 500 are at 25x to 26x. As a road map for the future, Fool analyst Bill Barker believes Warren Buffett’s 1999 road map is worth revisiting and examining in the context of today. |
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“His forecast of likely future returns was about as accurate as you could possibly hope for”: Buffett chose a 17-year period ahead and posited likely returns of being 4% in real terms after factoring in 2% inflation. He hedged that if the returns weren’t 5% real (4% after advisor costs), they were as likely to be lower as higher. Through 2016, the next 17 years saw 2.6% annualized real returns.
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“Buffett’s equation appears far more useful for predicting multiple-decade returns to patient investors than most things you’ll see”: Buffett largely attributed the prior period of inflated market returns (19% per year, 1981-1998) to two factors: interest rate movement and profit margin improvement. Now, interest rates have now returned to essentially the levels of 1999, while valuations as a whole are very slightly less elevated…
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