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Monday, August 31, 2020 |
We always tell you to wait as long as you possibly can to draft, and we got a stark reminder as to why Monday morning when the Jaguars released running back Leonard Fournette. On the one hand, this isn't so surprising: They reportedly spent much of the offseason trying to trade him after turning down his fifth-year option. |
On the other hand ... this is totally shocking! We're 10 days away from the start of the season, and less than two weeks from the Jaguars first game! Fournette is a top-32 pick by ADP, so this has huge implications for Fantasy — both for the Jags and (potentially) for some other team's running back situation. We'll break down what it means for Jacksonville and speculate on some other possible landing spots for Fournette to kick off today's newsletter. |
Catch up on our latest draft prep articles and then read on for everything you need to know from this weekend: |
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And here's what else we've got on tap today: |
- 🚨Fournette released
- 💲Buy or Sell: Training Camp narratives
- 📈Rankings risers and fallers
- 👥Depth chart updates
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The writing was on the wall for Fournette's exit from Jacksonville for a long time, but the expectation was still that he'd open the season as the team's No. 1 back. There wasn't even much evidence he was seeing limited reps in training camp, so the timing of this is unusual — and it leaves us without a clear-cut beneficiary in Jacksonville, as Ben Gretch noted in his write up Monday morning. |
Chris Thompson will see plenty of work in the passing game, given his familiarity with Jay Gruden's offense, and he has reportedly seen a decent amount of work in the red zone in camp, a key for pass-catching running backs to outperform their ADP — he's a late-round target for that alone. However, we know he's not an every-down back, so there's still plenty of opportunity for Ryquell Armstead or Devine Ozigbo to see an increased role. The question is, which is most likely to see significant work? |
Armstead got the start in Week 17 when Fournette was out and played 62% of the snaps, so it seems like he may have the edge — however, he did sit out the team's scrimmage with an injury, so we'll have to watch that one. Ozigbo did see just one fewer carry and as many targets as Armstead in that Week 17, so this could be a frustrating three-way timeshare. Armstead should probably be the first back you target from this backfield, but I'm not sure any of the three should go inside the top-100 picks. In fact, I'd still take Fournette over all three of them, even before knowing where he lands. |
Now, where might that be? Fournette could remain a high-end Fantasy option if he lands in the right spot, but it's surprisingly hard to figure out where "the right spot" might be two weeks away from the start of the season. Here are some possibilities: |
- Patriots — This might be the best option, and would fit with the team's decision to sign Cam Newton after he was waived. Sony Michel is underwhelming and Damien Harris is just a few training camp reports removed from being a Fantasy non-entity, so this might be the best path to a significant role.
- Chargers — We've seen this offense support multiple viable running backs, and Fournette would seem to be a perfect fit in the Melvin Gordon role. This is probably the only other place he could end up where he would still be a top-75 pick.
- Lions — D'Andre Swift's injury means the Lions are likely heading into the season set to rely on Kerryon Johnson and Ty Johnson. Fournette could provide a better complement to Johnson, at least.
- Bears — If David Montgomery's groin injury was more serious, Chicago would be the most obvious fit. As is, the need isn't exactly dire here.
- Washington — Adrian Peterson is the No. 1 option here, but between Bryce Love and Antonio Gibson, Washington would probably prefer to let the young guys play than give Fournette a chance, though he would be the only potential three-down option on the roster.
- Eagles — The nightmare scenario for Fantasy. Miles Sanders is expected to be over his leg injury by Week 1, but what if Fournette ends up being the long-speculated "veteran addition" we've been expecting the Eagles to make since the draft?
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It may not take Fournette long to find a new home, but with Devonta Freeman also still out there, it might depend on what his cost is. If Fournette winds up somewhere he can get 250 touches, he'll still be a must-start Fantasy option, but he might be better off waiting to see if an injury forces some team's hand in the next few weeks. |
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💲Buy or Sell: Training camp narratives |
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What they're saying: DeAndre Hopkins is going to see a significant reduction in targets |
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Sell. OK, Heath was joking (I think/hope!), but there is definitely a lot of target-related Hopkins pessimism going around the Fantasy football community. I think there are definitely reasons to be concerned with such a heavy investment in a receiver changing teams in a weird offseason like this, but I also think the risk is being overstated. Hopkins had a monster target share in Houston (north of 30% the last two seasons), and that will almost certainly go down in Arizona's spread-out offense. However, the Texans also threw the ball just 495 times in Hopkins' 15 games last season; the Cardinals may throw it 100 times more often than that. They were the seventh-fasted paced team last season, but an offense that often stalled out limited their overall volume. If this offense takes a step forward, Hopkins could see his target share fall to 27% and still get 150 targets if the Cardinals throw it 555 times. That's closer to the floor, in my eyes. |
What they're saying: The Broncos offense isn't ready for prime time |
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Buy. I'm skeptical of Drew Lock to begin with, but the reports out of camp haven't been glowing, so I hope this isn't confirmation bias. It doesn't sound like they've been awful, they just haven't sounded terribly impressive, which is why I'm mostly fading this offense. Courtland Sutton should still see plenty of targets, and I like Phillip Lindsay as a value in the pick 90 range, but otherwise, I'm mostly avoiding this one. |
What they're saying: Le'Veon Bell is the Jets' worst RB |
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Sell. OK, I'm not watching Jets camp myself, so I can't say one way or the other whether that quote has much validity. But we know who Frank Gore is, and La'Mical Perine is a fourth-round pick who never topped 1,000 yards in college and just had to get an MRI on an ankle injury. Will Bell got as much work as he did a year ago? Probably not, but he should still get enough to be a No. 2 RB, which is where he's being drafted. I'm not targeting him, but I'm not taking him off my board, either. |
What they're saying: Josh Allen isn't going to run as much |
- "My mindset this year is a little different. I'm going to try to get the ball into my playmakers' hands and let them make some plays, because they're a lot quicker and shiftier than I am. But when my number is called, I'll step up to the plate for sure." - Allen
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Sell. I mean, he may run less after logging 109 carries in 2019, just like he averaged few rush attempts per game in 2019 vs. the previous season. But it's not going to be enough to dramatically alter his Fantasy value — he's still going to scramble plenty and be a factor in the red zone when things break down. Plus, I'm not sure asking Allen to throw more is a great thing for Buffalo. |
What they're saying: Devin Singletary is fumbling his job away |
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Buy. This has been a consistent theme in training camp for Singletary, and it was an issue for him as a rookie. I'm not saying Singletary won't be the starter in Week 1, but Zack Moss is drawing rave reviews, and this might be a pretty even split — with Moss taking on the bigger share some weeks. |
What they're saying: The Seahawks won't be throwing more in 2020 |
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Buy. The Seahawks have never unleashed Russell Wilson before, why would they now? Is it possible? Sure, but the addition of Jamal Adams to the secondary makes it less likely they'll need to. And if the Seahawks don't need to throw the ball, they've proven they're perfectly happy to sit on the ball. |
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Risers |
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Fallers |
- Tua Tagovailoa — He's picked up speed after a slow start, but Tagovailoa hasn't made this a competition by any means. This is Ryan Fitzpatrick's job, at least to start the season, and that's good news for DeVante Parker and Preston Williams.
- Melvin Gordon — He struggled with his conditioning before suffering a rib injury, and it sounds like he could be in a pretty even split with Lindsay.
- D'Andre Swift — Swift wasn't exactly running away with the job before sustaining a leg injury that has his Week 1 status in question. I expect the rookie to have a significant role this season, but it may not be from Week 1.
- Jalen Reagor — Reagor left Sunday's practice with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss about four weeks, according to early reports, putting Week 1 in serious doubt. That means it might be a while before Reagor makes an impact. Adam Aizer and Heath Cummings broke down the injury and the rest of the news from around the NFL in the first episode of our new podcast Fantasy Football Today in 5 Monday, so make sure you check that out and subscribe on Spotify, Apple or wherever else you consume podcasts.
- Jerry Jeudy — Jeudy has drawn plenty of praise, but Sutton is still the top option here, and it doesn't sound like it's particularly close despite some hope he may push Sutton at the start of camp.
- Rob Gronkowski — Gronk has struggled with his conditioning and seems like he could be used in more of a specialist role. The presence of O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate make it really hard to see how Gronkowski is a No. 1 TE for Fantasy.
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👥Depth chart updates |
There is no starting QB in Chicago |
- What it means: I've been a proponent of the "It can't be worse" theory of Chicago's offense, but it sounds like Mitchell Trubisky and Foles have been thoroughly underwhelming in camp. The hope here was Foles would either stand out or push Trubisky to improve, but right now, this looks like the same low-upside offense it was last season.
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Darrel Williams is the No. 2 back in Kansas City |
- What it means: Anyone following practice reports won't be surprised by this. Williams has earned praise for his command of the offense, and has split most of the first-team reps with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Of course, just because he's the Week 1 complement doesn't mean he's the handcuff for Edwards-Helaire; DeAndre Washington may still be better suited for a featured role if it comes to that, which is what we saw in Oakland last year.
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Russell Gage is locked in as Atlanta's No. 3 receiver |
- What it means: Gage is still probably the fourth receiver in this offense behind Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst, and he might be fifth if Todd Gurley shows signs of life. Still, there are typically more than enough targets to go around for Gage to be a best-ball target, at the very least.
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Brian Hill in the lead for No. 2? |
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Kerryon Johnson is likely the starter for DET |
- What it means: It probably doesn't mean Johnson will be playing a huge role given that he's working his way back from his torn ACL. But he'll be a viable low end No. 2 or flex starter for the season opener. He's a nice zero-RB target. If Swift can't play in Week 1, we may see Ty Johnson split time with Kerryon.
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