| | | | Tuesday, March 8, 2022 | | The first two major dominos of the NFL offseason went down Tuesday afternoon, as reports surfaced that Aaron Rodgers will be returning to the Green Bay Packers, while the Broncos and Seahawks have agreed on a trade that will send Russell Wilson to the Broncos. Rodgers still has to come to an agreement on a contract extension with the Packers, while Wilson has to sign off on the trade to the Broncos, but it looks like we've got answers to the two biggest questions at the position before free agency kicks off next week. | | It's been a huge day of NFL news just between those two moves, without even getting into news that the Chargers signed Mike Williams to an extension or that the likes of Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, Dalton Schultz, Mike Gesicki, David Njoki or Orlando Brown getting the franchise tag. Let alone the news that broke Monday about Calvin Ridley receiving at least a one-year suspension for gambling on NFL games – something Dave Richard covered on CBSSports.com here. | | The Fantasy Football Today team has the immediate reactions to the Wilson trade and the Rodgers news you need to listen to, and you'll obviously want to make sure you are subscribed to the pod as we'll be tackling all of the big news over the next few weeks as free agency shakes out. The FFT crew will also be right here in your inbox regularly with the latest you need to know, in addition to some special guest newsletters from Dave, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings to keep you informed through free agency, into the draft, and throughout the whole offseason. | | There are obviously still plenty of moving pieces involved in each of these spots as well as around the rest of the NFL before we know what the Fantasy landscape will look like for 2022, but today's news was pretty seismic. These moves fundamentally alter the makeup of two offenses while providing clarity on another, with some of the biggest names in Fantasy touched. Let's take a look at how these moves impact all three teams heading into free agency: | | | | The Broncos finally get their guy | | | | The reported deal sees the Broncos getting Wilson and a fourth-round pick for Drew Lock, Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and a fifth-round pick. That's a big haul, but it's probably worth it for a Denver team that has thought itself to be a QB away from competing for a while now. | | The Broncos have been wandering in the wilderness of tall, inaccurate QBs ever since Manning's retirement, so there is some irony in the fact that their likely savoir could not be less like the motley crew that came before him. Wilson is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL, especially on deep balls, and that takes the entire potential of this offense to a completely different level than what we've seen. | | That's exciting news for Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, and Tim Patrick, of course. The natural assumption is that Jeudy, the 22-year-old, recent 15th overall pick, will be the primary beneficiary, and I'm not going to go against the grain here. Jeudy has been a disappointment so far in his career, and it's fair to wonder how much of that is just because of the QB play he's been saddled with – it's not like he's been that much more impressive than Patrick, his much less heralded teammate. | | However, Jeudy is obviously talented. He showed that in college, and he's shown that in flashes in the NFL. He's fast and he's a great route runner, and could thrive playing with Wilson as a No. 1 receiver. There will be opportunities for him to make plays in the short and intermediate areas of the field, but it's Russ' skill with the deep ball that could make this pairing special – the Seahawks ranked first in the NFL in passer rating on passes more than 20 yards down the field in 2021, while the Broncos ranked just 20th. If Jeudy emerges as the all-around threat we've long thought he could be, he has top-12 WR upside, and he'll be drafted as a top-24 WR in most leagues in the wake of this trade. | | Of course, Sutton is the more natural deep ball threat in this offense, at least based on what we've seen. He struggled to make much of an impact in his first year back from a torn ACL, but the Broncos gave him a four-year contract extension last offseason, so they don't seem too concerned. He likely slots in as the No. 2 option in this offense and could be the kind of high-upside WR2 Tyler Lockett has been in Seattle if you don't mind some inconsistency at times. I'll draft him more like a low-end WR3, but the upside is there for Sutton now. | | Patrick could also be relevant in this offense, but the bigger concern would be that he's just enough of a threat to keep both Jeudy and Sutton in the high-teen target share range. It's more interesting to consider what this trade means for Albert Okwuegbunam, as Noah Fant was shipped off to Seattle in the deal, according to reports. Okwuegbunam is an incredible physical specimen for the tight end position at 6'6", 258 pounds, running a 4.49 40-yard dash . However, he hasn't made a huge impact yet in his career, catching 44 passes for 451 yards and three touchdowns over 18 games. However, with Fant out of the way, Okwuegbunam could emerge as a big part of this offense and probably deserves to be drafted among the top-12 tight ends in Fantasy on potential alone. | | The rising tide that Wilson represents for this offense should also lift the running backs along with them, but until we know whether Melvin Gordon is returning, it's hard to know exactly how to value Javonte Williams. Williams should be drafted as a high-end RB2 either way, but if Gordon is out of the picture and the Broncos don't bring anyone else of note in, Williams will probably be a first-round pick in 2022 drafts. For what it's worth, it does sound like there is mutual interest in a Gordon reunion – though, for what it's worth, many Fantasy analysts may move Williams into the first round no matter what. | | | | What next for Seattle? | | | | To start with: Lock isn't the answer at QB for Seattle. He might end up having to be the answer for 2022, at least to start, if they can't find a better option. But nothing we've seen from him over three years in Denver suggests he's a starting-caliber NFL quarterback – he has completed 59.3% of his passes for just a 3.5% touchdown rate with a 2.8% interception rate and just 6.7 yards per attempt. Sure, he'll have some pretty good weapons in Seattle, but he had talented receivers in Denver too, and most observers tend to believe he was holding them back, not the other way around. Lock has very little Fantasy appeal even if he is starting. | | Especially because, you have to think this offense isn't going to be more more pass-heavy without Russell Wilson, right? The Seahawks were 22nd in pass rate in 2021 despite only occasionally having a running game they could trust. I'm expecting this offense to double down on that approach with a much worse quarterback, which means they might be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league this coming season. | | That might be decent news for Chris Carson, or Rashaad Penny if they re-sign him, or whoever, but it's terrible news for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf and Lockett have managed to be viable Fantasy starters – and often much more than that – despite significantly less volume than many of their comparable peers at the position thanks to some great efficiency. Among 29 players with at least 300 targets over the past three seasons combined, Lockett ranks third in yards per target at 9.4, while Metcalf ranked ninth at 8.9. Metcalf, meanwhile, ranks second among that group in touchdown rate at 8.1%; Lockett is sixth at 7.4%. Even among the best of the best, that duo stood out for their efficiency. | | It should come as no surprise, then, that Wilson has been among the game's best deep ball passers in that stretch. From 2019 through 2021, Wilson ranks fourth in the league in passer rating on passes thrown at least 20 yards down the field while having the fourth-most such attempts; he ranks just 11th in total attempts in that same span. Lockett and Metcalf are dangerous deep threats in their own right, but Wilson no doubt helped elevate them, as well. | | Hopefully, for Lockett and Metcalf's sakes, the Seahawks won't settle for Lock as their starter, but this year's free agent crop doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Neither does the crop of rookies, with no quarterbacks currently projected to be taken in the first five picks in CBS Sports NFL Draft mocks right now. The Seahawks may opt to use the No. 9 overall pick acquired from Denver to take a flier on someone like Malik Willis, the highest-ranked QB for most of our analysts, but it's hard to see him stepping in out of Liberty University and replicating what Wilson did for those two. | | The one exception that might help Lockett and Metcalf retain some of their appeal would be the addition of someone like Jameis Winston in free agency. Winston has the arm and aggressive approach that could help make the most of Lockett and Metcalf and might be enough to keep them in the high-upside WR3 range in drafts. | | However, as things stand right now, I'm not sure how you could view either as a top-30 WR, and I'm not sure either will be in my top-36 at the position unless they get a significant upgrade at QB. Winston is probably the only player who might qualify because even someone like Jimmy Garoppolo or Marcus Mariota wouldn't inspire much confidence in what will likely remain a low-volume passing offense. | | Fant might be worth targeting as a fringe top-12 tight end, because he remains one of the most physically gifted players at the tight end position, though his lack of progression over three NFL seasons has been frustrating. He's been held back by poor QB play in Denver, obviously, but he probably won't be in any better situation in Seattle, unfortunately. | | There probably isn't a player on the Seahawks as presently constructed I would want in my starting lineup for Fantasy. There's no shortage of talent among the pass-catching group, but the way they've run their offense in recent years combined with the expectation of below-average QB play makes it hard to get excited about anyone. This looks like it could be one of the worst teams in the league for 2022, as years of mismanaged assets and poor drafting are coming back to haunt them. | | The Seahawks have lost the best player in franchise history, and there's rarely a good replacement waiting when that happens for a team. In this instance, the Seahawks seem to have nothing but bad options ahead of them. It could get ugly. | | | | The status quo reigns in Green Bay | | | | With Rodgers agreeing to return to Green Bay, it seems all but certain that Davante Adams will be returning as well, which means the principles in the offense will be the same they have been for a long time. That's good news, as the Rodgers-Adams combination has been one of the best in Fantasy for years, and it also makes the entire offense around them work. | | For all the talk of Green Bay needing to add more help in the receiving game, the Adams-centric offense has worked incredibly well, especially over the past two seasons. Rodgers has won back-to-back MVPs, most recently throwing for 4,115 yards and 37 touchdowns in 2021. He's been the league leader in touchdown rate in each of the past two seasons while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt – which allows him to remain a must-start Fantasy QB even though his pass volume is relatively low and he doesn't run much at this point in his career. He remains a top-10 QB for 2022 with this news. | | And Adams is the key to making all of that work. He led the NFL in target share in 2021 with a 33% rate, turning that massive role into 123 catches, 1,553 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He has finished no worse than fourth in Fantasy points per game among wide receivers in PPR in the past four seasons, with three top-two finishes and two No. 1 ranks. He was surpassed only by Cooper Kupp's historic production last season, and I view those two as 1a and 1b for 2022 – Adams has the better track record and matched Kupp's 25.7 PPR points per game in 2021 with his own 2020. Both will be worth top-six picks on Draft Day this year. | | The Packers haven't really had much room for a viable No. 2 Fantasy WR, and unless they make a big addition, that is unlikely to change. However, we know their running backs have thrived in the Rodgers era, so this is good news for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The fact that they are likely to split work mutes their potential, but Jones was still RB13 in PPR points per game in 2021 while splitting with Dillon, who came in at RB36. Jones will remain the better Fantasy option of the two, and a high-end RB2, but Dillon did see an increased role in the second half of the season and could be a viable low-end RB2 in his own right in this offense. | | All told, expect the Packers offense to look much the same as it did in 2021, which is good news for all involved. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League on P+ | | 24/7 Sports News | The Round of 16 continues! Liverpool are looking to cement their place in the Quarterfinals after their 2-0 victory against Inter in the 1st leg. Don’t miss any of the action from Anfield on Tuesday!
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