By Michael Shepherd - Jan. 23, 2023
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📷 Gov. Janet Mills laughs while taking the oath of office from Senate President Troy Jackson, D-Allagash, left, at her inauguration ceremony on Jan. 4, 2023, in Augusta. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)

Good morning from Augusta. State offices and the Legislature are closed due to another storm dumping about a foot of snow over much of Maine.

What we're watching today

Hearings on the state budget start this week, while maneuvering has already begun. They will be delayed by one day due to snow, but the Maine Legislature's budget committee starts its work in earnest on crafting the state spending plan this week. It begins with hearings from Tuesday through Thursday on a small adjustment for this year, then lawmakers will start work on Gov. Janet Mills' $10.5 billion spending plan for the next two years.

This first round of hearings should be low-key, since the major initiatives are in the two-year budget. Those typically pass by consensus in Augusta, but Mills and Democrats presided over one majority budget in 2021. The governor did not rule out doing another one when she released her proposal, but she said it should win wide support. Republicans are pushing for tax cuts.

We're probably not going to hear much more from either side for a little while. Budget talks are a game of chicken in which the majority party has the power to mostly do what they want and the minority only has the power to influence things if it stays attached to the deal. Republican leaders have said they want a bipartisan budget deal, but getting one depends both on their posture entering negotiations and what Democrats allow for.

There is plenty of time to pursue either option. Democrats would have to send their own budget to Mills by the end of March for it to take effect by the beginning of the new fiscal year on July 1. After that deadline, the Legislature would need to approve a budget by two-thirds majorities in both chambers to avoid a state shutdown. One-party control should negate the risk of that.

But this possible outcome means that every step in these negotiations must be watched closely. If Republicans are making Hail Mary offers to slash spending, legislative Democrats could go their own way. But if the minority party puts forward a package of tax cuts for low- and middle-income Mainers, it could give the Democrats some incentive to negotiate with them.

All of this comes with the backdrop of global economic issues. At a MaineBiz event last week, the state economist said any recession would be mild for Maine. California is already facing a shortfall that could triple in the case of a recession, though our economy should be more insulated than theirs.

Mills comes into a more tense budget year with a relatively strong hand, given the record sum in the state's rainy day fund. She also continues to get lucky, with the state potentially set to get a $52 million income tax infusion after the $1.35 billion Mega Millions jackpot was won in Maine. But there is plenty of partisan peril here and the solution may rely heavily on what negotiations look like in approximately two months.

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News and notes

📷 U.S. Sen. Susan Collins (left) takes a look at the collection of books alongside librarian Julie Buhler last Monday at the Lumberman's Museum in Patten. (Houlton Pioneer Times photo by Joseph Cyr)

🤫 A Maine senator chides the president over a confidential documents case.

◉ The situation facing President Joe Biden is "serious," Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, told WABI in an interview that ran on Friday.

◉ That same day, the FBI found more confidential documents from Biden's vice presidency in his Delaware home. It led to criticism from the president's fellow Democrats over the weekend. The party's No. 2 senator, Dick Durbin of Illinois, said Biden should be "embarrassed by the situation."

◉ President Donald Trump's Florida home was raided by the FBI last year after prosecutors said they had probable cause to believe crimes had been committed related to the retention of classified documents. He remains under investigation. Collins distinguished the situations by saying there seems to be "a different level of cooperation" by Biden, but she said things remain unclear.

◉ "This deserved the appointment of a special counsel in my view," she said, "and I have confidence that both of the special counsels will do a good job."

👋 Maine's top health official says goodbye on the radio.

◉ Nirav Shah, the head of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, does his final interview on Maine Public's "Maine Calling" at 11 a.m. on Monday before leaving for the No. 2 job in the U.S. CDC.

◉ The regular COVID-19 briefings carried by Maine Public and other outlets during the pandemic made Shah into a household name.

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What we're reading

🔃 Mills campaigned on wanting no abortion law changes, then proposed them.

🧪 Maine is preparing for future regulations on PFAS in wastewater.

💸 The university system has paid $200,000 so far to a man who has never worked for the university system.

➡️ Maine is now a leader in transferring students seamlessly between community colleges and universities.

🤑 More housing is coming to Bar Harbor, but it is not affordable. That comes as Maine's luxury housing market stays in high gear.

🏀 Maine's best high-school athletes are leaving Maine.

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