Builder Confidence Near Post-Pandemic Lows, But Timing is Everything

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo released the monthly Housing Market Index (HMI) this week, showing builder confidence falling to the lowest levels since 2023. This is about as low as the index has been since the housing crisis more than a decade ago. While persistently high interest rates remain a top concern for the housing market, a growing number of builders cited difficulty pricing new homes in light of the rapidly changing outlook for material costs due to tariffs. With that in mind, it's important to note that 90% of this month's responses came in before the US/China trade announcement. Not only did that announcement drastically reduce tariffs for 90 days, it also offered a proof of concept that will likely see the outlook improve in the next survey due to lower material costs and a more upbeat consumer. Additional details are available at https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index.

May 16, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Builder Confidence Near Post-Pandemic Lows, But Timing is Everything The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo released the monthly Housing Market Index (HMI) this week, showing builder confidence falling to the lowest levels since 2023. This is about as low as the index has been since the ... (read more) Housing News Housing Starts Buoyed By Multi-Family Sector The Census Bureau is out with monthly construction numbers for April showing an uptick in construction activity offset by slightly lower permitting. While there are several other metrics in this report, building permits and housing starts (whic... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates End Week Only Slightly Higher After Decent Recovery The average top tier 30yr fixed rate is set to end the week just a few hundredths of a percent higher than last Friday at 6.92%. That's a victory--albeit a small one--after hitting 6.99% on Wednesday. As always, these rates refer to an index re... (read more) MBS Commentary Coasting Into The Weekend With Little Regard For Data One might assume that an economic report like Import Prices would carry a lot of weight in light of the news cycle or that the highest 1yr inflation expectations since 1981 in the Consumer Sentiment survey might cause a stir. In practice, Import Pric... (read more) Rob Chrisman DSCR Sales, Processing, UAD 3.6, Homebuyer, LO Locking Tools; STRATMOR Tech Survey This weekend is when many of us head to Manhattan for the MBA’s National Secondary event. For those flying in, check your ticket: NJ Transit’s on strike. Flying into Newark? Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy explains Why He Canceled Wife's Newark F... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.92% -0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.92% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.26% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.35% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.05% -0.03 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.45% -0.10 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.37% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.26% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.92% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/15 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.86% +0.02 0.68 15 Yr. Fixed 6.12% -0.05 0.59 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.85% -0.01 0.49 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/14 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.81 -0.08 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.81 -0.08 UMBS 6.0 100.78 -0.06 GNMA 5.5 99.19 +0.01 GNMA 6.0 100.67 -0.26 Pricing as of: 5/16 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4414 +0.0104 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.991 +0.018 5 YR Treasury 4.068 +0.014 7 YR Treasury 4.247 +0.000 10 YR Treasury 4.441 +0.010 30 YR Treasury 4.900 +0.009 Pricing as of: 5/16 5:31PM EST Latest Video UBS' John Lovallo: Underlying housing demand is still strong, affordability... Home affordability plummets: Here's what's needed to balance the market April housing starts come in as expected Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in April amid slide in services Around the Web CNBC Federal Reserve will reduce staff by 10% in coming years, Powell memo says CNBC Here's exactly how unaffordable today's housing market is and where it's getting worse CNBC Consumer sentiment falls in May as Americans' inflation expectations jump after tariffs Eye on Housing Single-Family Starts Down on Economic and Tariff Uncertainty Fitch Ratings US Effective Tariff Rate Declines to 13% from 23% with Lower China Duty Eye on Housing Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence CNBC U.S. Treasury yields lower as investors weigh the state of the U.S. economy Forex Live US April housing starts 1.361m vs 1.365m expected Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Low-to-Mid 2% CNBC China lifts export controls for 28 U.S. companies, but not key rare earths CNBC China calls U.S. trade talks 'good' but quiet on next steps, as Trump hints at Xi call Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Unchanged in April CNBC Moody's downgrades United States credit rating on increase in government debt

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