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Hi John, here's what you need to know for September 3rd in 3:09 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a cappuccino at Island Lava Java in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii (32°C/89°F ☔)

Today's big stories

  1. Dating app Bumble is going ahead with an initial public offering
  2. UK homebuyers may want to get a move on if they're looking to put a deposit down – Read Now
  3. Liquor giant Pernod Ricard took a huge profit hit as lockdown shook up everyone's drinking habits
1/3

Swipe-PO

Swipe-PO

What’s Going On Here?

Bumble’s finally ready to put itself out there: the women-go-first dating app is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) early next year.

What Does This Mean?

Bumble didn’t say how much money it plans on raising, but the IPO could, according to people in the know, value the company at an easy-on-the-eye $6-8 billion. That’s at least double the $3 billion that Bumble-parent MagicLab – which owns three other dating apps – was valued at last year when private equity firm Blackstone bought a majority stake in the company.

Bumble probably got all hot under the collar after the post-IPO success of its closest rival: Match Group – which owns Tinder, Match.com, and Hinge – has seen its stock price rise by more than 800% since its IPO five years ago. That’s cute, but Bumble’s probably hoping its differentiating feature – that women make the first move – will help it stand out from those other eligible suitors.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Live, laugh, IPO.
Plenty of companies were forced to postpone their IPOs earlier this year, but now they’re looking to ride the US stock market’s huge post-lockdown recovery. That means Bumble is joining a parade of other tech hotties – including Doordash, Palantir, and Airbnb – that are all thinking about flaunting their assets on the IPO market (tweet this).

The bigger picture: Looking for something short-term.
Private equity firms like Blackstone use IPOs as a way to “exit” their investments in private companies and lock down the gains they’ve made on paper. That usually takes them a few years, but Blackstone’s planned exit from Bumble will come just a year after it first invested in the firm. That could be a sign of the weird times we live in: US tech stocks are up almost 40% this year, and it pays to strike while the going is good.

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2/3 Premium

UK Homes Weather The Storm

What’s Going On Here?

Home prices are soaring and mortgage rates falling on both sides of the Atlantic, but there’s trouble brewing in Britain.

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3/3

Boozed Ego

Boozed Ego

What’s Going On Here?

Pernod Ricard’s going to regret this in the morning: the French alcohol giant – owner of Absolut vodka and Jameson whiskey – reported a huge profit hit on Wednesday.

What Does This Mean?

You might feel as though you’ve been knocking back more liquor than ever in your own home, but spending in two less-frequented areas – bars and duty-free stores – took a double-measure-sized dent last quarter. The drop in sales to nearly non-existent air travelers was so steep, in fact, that Pernod ”wrote down” its value by $1.2 billion. In other words, it reassessed the value of its various parts and realized they – or more specifically, former window-shopper staple Absolut – were worth less than before. And that write-down saw profit for the year through June fall 77%, with sales in the COVID-ravaged final quarter sliding by a third.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Claims to fame.
Pernod also had a headache in the form of a pre-pandemic booze industry trend: drinkers’ growing preference for smaller “craft” brands like Redbreast whiskey and Altos tequila over household names like Martell cognac. Sales of those specialty labels climbed 7%, while every other category fell. It's this shift that pushed Britain’s Diageo – Pernod Ricard’s even bigger rival – to slam down $1 billion for George Clooney’s Casamigos tequila in 2017, and then follow up last month with $610 million for a gin brand part-owned by Ryan Reynolds.

Zooming out: That’s the spirit.
Pernod’s results might’ve looked worse for wear, but the company’s profit didn’t decline as much as it’d forecast in July, helping its shares climb almost 3%. Another struggling company pulled off the same trick on Wednesday: US department store operator Macy’s saw its shares rise after reporting a not-quite-as-dire-as-expected quarterly loss. And while Pernod may be desperate for a return to normal life, Macy’s has spotted a silver lining: people are buying more jewelry and perfume as gifts now there aren't as many concert tickets and cookery courses on offer.

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💬 Quote of the day

“I am not afraid to fail, to get lost, to dream, to be myself, to find. I am not afraid to live.”

– Kilian Jornet (a sky runner, trail runner, and ski mountaineer)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Mech China Great Again

“How does the difference in inflation rates between two countries impact their currencies?”

– Luis in Spain

“This is a tricky one, Luis, so bear with us. The relationship between inflation and exchange rates is based on an economic model called “relative purchasing power parity”. But to understand that, you need to first understand “purchasing power parity” (PPP) on its own. PPP says that the same basket of goods should be the same price in every country, and that this should be reflected in exchange rates. For example, let’s say a basket of goods costs $200 in the US, but £100 in the UK: the exchange rate should be $2 for every £1. Now let’s assume annual inflation is 10% in the US, and 0% in the UK. After one year, the price of that basket of goods will go up to $220 in the US, but will stay at £100 in the UK. The new exchange rate is now $2.20 for every £1, meaning the pound’s become stronger and the dollar’s become weaker. That’s relative PPP in action: a country with a higher inflation rate should see its currency weaken versus a country with a lower one.”

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Image Credits:

Image credits: BloodBros @BloodBros - Giphy, Alexey Boldin - Shutterstock | Michael Stein 121272 - Shutterstock, Pernod

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