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UK house prices growth has “surprisingly” picked up to a two-year high, a new survey this morning shows, despite the recent rise in mortgage rates.
The average prices of a house sold in November rose by 1.2% compared with October, lender Nationwide reports, to £268,144. That’s the largest monthly gain since March 20.
That lifts the annual increase in house prices to 3.7% – the fastest since November 2022, shortly after Liz Truss’s mini-budget – up from 2.4% in October.
House prices are just 1% below the all-time high recorded in the summer of 2022.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, says the pace of the increase is unexpected: “The acceleration in house price growth is surprising, since affordability remains stretched by historic standards, with house prices still high relative to average incomes and interest rates well above pre-Covid levels."
Housing market activity has remained “relatively resilient in recent months”, Gardner adds, with mortgage approvals approaching the levels seen before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Gardner says:“Solid labour market conditions, with low levels of unemployment and strong income gains, even after taking account of inflation, have helped underpin a steady rise in activity and house prices since the start of the year. Household balance sheets are also in good shape with debt levels at their lowest levels relative to household income since the mid-2000s."
Nationwide also predicts there will be a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025. as buyers try to seal deals before changes to stamp duty kick in next April.
These surveys from lenders can’t give a perfect measure of the market though; they only track buyers taking out a mortgage, rather than cash buyers. And changes in the ‘mix’ of houses being sold can also distort the data.
The US dollar is rallying, after Donald Trump warned countries in the Brics bloc that he would impose 100% tariffs if they challenged America’s currency.
Over the weekend, Trump posted that he would impose 100% tariffs on Brics members if they create a new currency to rival the US dollar.
The president-elect declared: "We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new Brics currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or, they will face 100% tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy."
With fears of a trade war rising, the dollar has gained 0.5% against a basket of major currencies – even though there’s no agreement among Brics members to go it along with their own currency.
This has pushed the pound down by half a cent to $1.2695.
The euro, which is also weighed down by political instability in France, is also half a cent lower at $1.052.
Trump’s comments may be a sign that his administration will favour a stronger dollar.
Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank told clients this morning: "As ever with Mr Trump it seems to be a shot across the bows but likely wouldn’t ultimately be great for the US economy if implemented … it seems to further point to dollar strength being a theme of the new administration as against Trump 1.0 where initially they tried to talk the dollar down."
The agenda
• 9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing PMI report for November
• 9.30am GMT: UK manufacturing PMI report for November
• 10am Christine Lagarde speaks at the EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg
• 2.45pm GMT: US manufacturing PMI report for November
We'll be tracking all the main events throughout the day … |
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