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Business live
UK house prices in biggest fall since 2009, but recession avoided
Live
UK house prices in biggest fall since 2009, but recession avoided
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Today's agenda
UK house prices are falling at the fastest annual rate since the aftermath of the financial crisis, data from Nationwide Building Society shows.

Nationwide reports that UK house prices fell for the seventh month running in March, as the aftermath from the disastrous mini-budget continued to hammer the housing market.

This month they fell by 3.1% compared with a year ago, which is the largest annual decline since July 2009, Nationwide said.

Across the UK, prices fell by 0.8% month on month, leaving the average UK house price at £257,122.

There was a slowing in price growth in all regions of the UK in quarter 1, with most experiencing small year-on-year falls. The West Midlands was the strongest performing region, while Scotland remained the weakest.

The UK has avoided falling into recession at the end of last year.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has shown that national output grew by 0.1% in the final three months of 2022 – better than the earlier estimate of no change in GDP in October-December.

The economy shrank in the third quarter of last year but today’s data confirms that the economy has not shrunk for two successive quarters, which is the technical definition of recession.

The ONS has revised up UK GDP in the third quarter of last year. GDP is now thought to have only fallen by 0.1% in July-September, better than the first estimate of a 0.2% decline.

However, the UK economy is still below its pre-pandemic level.

Quarterly GDP in quarter 4 2022 was 0.6% below its pre-coronavirus level set in Q4 2019, which has been revised up from the previous estimate of 0.8% below.

GDP is now estimated to have increased by 4.1% in 2022, revised up from the previous estimate of 4%.

The UK services sector grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of last year, the ONS reports.

Builders had a good quarter, with the construction sector growing by 1.3%, but the production sector stagnated, with growth flat in quarter 4 2022.

Encouragingly, UK business confidence has risen to its highest level since May 2022.

The Lloyds Bank business barometer, released this morning, has risen this month by 11 points to 32%, helped by rising optimism about the outlook for the economy.

Overall economic optimism also increased this month. Pricing expectations, which are being watched by the Bank of England amid worries about "greedflation", cooled to a six-month low.

The agenda
 10am BST: eurozone inflation (flash estimate) for March
• 10am BST: eurozone unemployment
• 1.30pm BST: US PCE inflation report for February
• 3pm BST: University of Michigan survey of US consumer sentiment

We’ll be tracking all the main events throughout the day ...
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