| |  | | Friday, September 3, 2021 | | It's the biggest draft weekend of the year, so to make sure you're ready to dominate this weekend you can find pretty much all of the draft prep preview content you need from the Fantasy Football Today team at the bottom of this newsletter. | | But first, let's go over some of the biggest news from around the NFL Thursday, lightning-round style before I give you my final bust picks for the 2021 season: | - The Falcons signed Wayne Gallman -- They also released Qadree Ollison, and this one might actually matter. Or, it will if Mike Davis struggles, because Gallman is a legitimate alternative. If Davis doesn't struggle, it won't matter. Davis is still worth drafting as an RB2, but he needs to hold serve now.
- The Panthers claimed Royce Freeman on waivers -- Freeman was recently waived by the Broncos, and it's entirely possible that he is now the handcuff to have for Christian McCaffrey . Chuba Hubbard could still factor in if anything happened to McCaffrey, but Freeman can play all three downs and could probably slip into that Davis role from last season fairly easily if needed.
- Giovani Bernard is dealing with a high-ankle sprain -- The injury was classified as "mild" by NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, who also noted the team expects Bernard to play in the NFL season opener Thursday against the Cowboys, but this is definitely one to watch. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette will likely split time in the early downs no matter what, but Fournette might see a bigger role as a pass-catcher if Bernard is out, and that could make him a sleeper starter in Week 1.
- Kenny Golladay (hamstring) is finally practicing -- Golladay was recently cleared to practice in full after missing nearly all of training camp, and he acknowledged Thursday that it could be a slow start to the season for the Giants, given their many injuries. That's my expectation, certainly.
- Evan Engram (calf) was able to practice Thursday -- So, maybe he won't be heading to IR after all? If Engram is active for Week 1, he's an overlooked sleeper at tight end.
| | And now, let's get you ready for the final draft weekend with 10 players I'm avoiding and the rest of the draft prep content you need from Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, Dave Richard, and the rest of the team. | | | | 2021 bust picks |  | | Sleepers, breakouts and bust columns are where Fantasy analysts get to plant our flags. If you want to see who we're planting our flags on this year, here's where me and the FFT team are at: | | | | | | They just aren't for me … | | These are the guys I can see the merit of, but just can't bring myself to pull the trigger. I'm just too worried they'll fall short. In the case of most of these players, I'm more worried about their ceiling than the floor falling out. | - Justin Herbert -- Herbert is obviously an excellent player, but there seems to be an assumption built into his price that he's going to take a step forward from his impressive rookie season, and I just can't bring myself to make that assumption. Not when there's no shortage of impressive quarterbacks with very Fantasy-friendly skill sets out there. The Athletic's Arif Hassan went over the case for and against Herbert regressing in his second season , and one thing that stands out is that Herbert's impressive rookie season -- 36 total touchdowns in 15 games -- was fueled in large part by unusually excellent performance passing under pressure. Performance under pressure is, obviously, a good thing, but it doesn't tend to have much predictive power -- especially when compared to how a player performs in a clean pocket. In Herbert's case, he ranked 26th in a clean pocket in passer rating; he was best in the league under pressure. If the former is more indicative of how he is likely to play in 2021, that could cost him. I see the appeal, but I'd rather wait for Ryan Tannehill three rounds later or Jalen Hurts nearly five rounds later.
- Antonio Gibson -- I really only have one question about Gibson, but it's a big one: Will he catch enough passes to make the leap to the elite level? With an ADP of 21.7 on CBS Fantasy, it's not a bad price to have to pay to find out, but he goes at the end of the first round in a lot more drafts I do, and that's where I can't get on board. Especially after watching Gibson play just one snap on third down in the preseason. If he's still ceding some of the most valuable snaps to J.D. McKissic, it makes it a lot harder for him to justify his cost, and I'm just not confident enough in his role to buy.
- Gus Edwards -- The thing with Edwards is, there really isn't any reason to think he'll have much of a passing game role. That's not how the Ravens use their running backs, and Edwards has just 18 catches on 22 targets in 43 career games. Which means, if you're taking him as a top-24 back (let alone top 20, where I've seen him ranked at times), you're betting he'll be a superlative producer on the ground. In eight games where Edwards has had 15 or more carries in his career, Edwards was on a 1,688-yard pace for 16 games -- and would have been no better than 20th in PPR points per game in four of the last five seasons. Yes, he only had three touchdowns in those eight games, but he's not gonna rush for anything close to 1,700 yards, so the point is more about just how good he needs to be as a rusher to overcome his lack of a passing game role. As a No. 2 RB in non-PPR, Edwards is an excellent pick, but I won't be drafting him in PPR leagues at that cost.
- Brandon Aiyuk -- I think Aiyuk is a terrific talent -- I loved him as a prospect coming out, and his production as a rookie should make you believe he could have some WR1 seasons in his future. He doesn't have to be that good this season to be worth his cost, but you're passing up on the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins, and Ja'Marr Chase at ADP, and I think I prefer all of them to Aiyuk. Not because he won't be good, but because George Kittle is still going to be the No. 1 option in that passing game, and I don't think the 49ers offense is going to have the volume to make Aiyuk a reliable starter. Those other players aren't necessarily guaranteed to get there, but I think each has a higher upside in their offenses.
- T.J. Hockenson -- Hockenson is a tough case for me, because he doesn't fit the typical definition for a "bust," in that I actually don't think there's much reason to think he's going to end up being significantly worse than his cost. He's being drafted as the No. 6 TE, and it's hard to see him being much worse than No. 6. But when you're taking a tight end in the fifth round, you're doing it because you think he can be a legitimate difference maker, someone who can really give you an edge on the competition, and that's where my concerns about Hockenson come in. What he's got going for him is volume, as well as the belief that he can be a really high-level playmaker, and we just haven't really seen that from him in his career. Among 37 tight ends with at least 100 targets through their first two seasons, Hockenson ranks 21st in yards per catch, 22nd in yards per target, 22nd in catch rate and 22nd in touchdown percentage. Volume can cover up for a lot of shortcomings, but I have a hard time seeing a Darren Waller-esque breakout when he's going to be seeing more attention from defenses while dealing with a downgrade at quarterback. He might not be a loss, but I'm not sure he'll be a big win for you.
| | | | The bottom could fall out | | And these are the players who ... well, I wouldn't say I won't touch them at any price, but there are rarely times when I find myself even adding them to my queue. Let's leave it at that. | - Ben Roethlisberger -- Nobody is really drafting Roethlisberger in most leagues at this point, so this is more about registering my concerns with the Steelers offense as a whole. While I do like Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson and can see the case for JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool at cost, I really don't draft any of them because Roethlisberger might just be finished. He sure looked like it late last season, when he averaged 5.6 yards per attempt with an ugly 4.0% touchdown rate plus a four-interception game in a playoff loss to the Browns. The Steelers are betting Matt Canada's new offense can help give Roethlisberger new life, but it might just be shifting the deck chairs on the Titanic at this point.
- Miles Sanders -- I liked Sanders so much last season, in large part because I thought he had the chance to be a special playmaker in the passing game. As a rookie he showed sure hands and excellent skills with the ball in his hands, and the Eagles used him often on passes beyond the line of scrimmage, which is where things get really valuable for running backs. However, he couldn't bring the ball in consistently in 2020 and it caused his quarterback and coaching staff to lose confidence in him, and it appears that has remained an issue for him in the preseason. Maybe he's just got the yips. Sanders is a great runner, but if that's all he is -- if he's just a two-down back especially -- he might just be a guy for Fantasy.
- Zack Moss -- The rest of the industry seems to have come around on my concerns for Moss after watching him split snaps pretty evenly with Devin Singletary over the final two preseason games, but I would still have him as a bust even if I expected him to be the lead back for the Bills because this just isn't a good offense for running backs in Fantasy. They have averaged 17 PPR points per game by all of their running backs over the last three seasons, which means even if he earned 70% of those points, you're looking at around 11.9 per game -- or RB30 in 2020. For reference, Derrick Henry scored 79.7% of the Titans RB points last season. The problem is, Josh Allen doesn't throw to his running backs much and he takes a lot of the goal-line touches, the two most important parts of RB production for Fantasy.
- D.J. Chark -- Chark's 2020 was a struggle as he missed three games and averaged just 54.3 receiving yards per game in an ugly Jaguars offense. A far cry from his breakout 2019 campaign … or was it? Chark had 485 yards and five touchdowns in the first five games of 2019 and then averaged 52.3 yards with only three touchdowns over his final 10. We're talking about more than 60 yards in just seven of his last 23 games, and now he's entering the season with questions about his availability due to a hand injury plus more competition than ever in the passing game. What if Chark just had a really good five games to open 2019 and this is just who he is? What if he's just the No. 3 WR for the Jaguars?
- Odell Beckham -- At the start of the offseason, I thought I might end up drafting Beckham quite a bit as a bounce-back candidate, but it never quite happened, and I have less reason than ever to buy in right now. As I noted earlier this week, there are some who believe Beckham may not play more than 20 snaps in a game during September as he works his way back from a torn ACL, and the emergence of Donovan Peoples-Jones in training camp means the team might be more comfortable working Beckham back in slowly. And, with no guaranteed money left on his deal after this season, it's not like the Browns have a big incentive to force him the ball if it doesn't help them win. Beckham has been a markedly less effective player since joining the Browns, with his yards per target dipping from 8.8 with the Giants to just 7.7, and he and Baker Mayfield have especially struggled to get on the same page. It's worth it for the Browns to see if he still has that elite play in him, but if he doesn't, they don't need to force it. And when the price is a top-90 pick, neither do you.
| | Draft Day Cheat Sheet | | Everything you need if you're drafting this weekend from the FFT team: | | QB Preview | | The old guard is still hanging around, but the new class of do-it-all quarterbacks dominate the scene now. | | | | RB Preview | | You need elite running backs to compete in Fantasy. But does that mean you have to pay top dollar for them? | | | | WR Preview | | Wide receiver has received a huge injection of talent in the past two years. Does that mean the elite options aren't as valuable? | | | | TE Preview | | Is this finally the year tight end isn't a mess? That's the question we're trying to answer for 2021. | | | | Team Previews | | Get to know every team heading into the 2021 season with our team previews, focusing on the biggest questions, numbers to know, sleepers, breakouts, and busts, and more for each team: | | | | Pick-by-Pick Strategies | | The first step to a good draft is knowing where you're going to draft and what to expect. No matter where you're picking, we've got a strategy for you: | | | | Mock Drafts | | Do as we say and as we do. Here's how we've been drafting for 2021: | | | | Dynasty Corner | | If you play in a Dynasty league, Heath Cummings has spent the offseason focusing on everything you need for 2021 and beyond: | | | | |  | |  | | | | | This Saturday, watch as the Ohio Bobcats take on Syracuse Orange at home for the first game of their season. Catch all the action live, starting at 7 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Watch Live
| | Raise the stakes this season by starting a football pick’em pool with your friends. Run your pool your way with tons of ways to play, including straight up, against the spread, survivor, confidence points, you name it. Play Now
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