| | | | Tuesday, April 15, 2025 | | "Francisco Lindor is a bust!" | | I haven't seen that comment yet, but I know it's coming. He's hitting just .220/.279/.339 through his first 15 games with just one homer and two steals, terrible production from any starter, let alone your likely second-round pick. You're frustrated. I know it. | | But you know what Lindor's line looked like exactly one year ago? .129/.236/.194. He was even worse than he's been so far, and it just didn't matter – he hit .290/.357/.534 the rest of the way, playing his way into being your likely second-round pick. | | I hope you have a long enough memory to know not to be worried about Lindor, but this isn't really even about Lindor. He's a useful one to make the point about because of his early struggles in each of the past two years – and, if memory serves, several of the prior seasons, too – but the point applies to just about anyone who you liked enough to spend real capital on in your drafts three weeks ago: Don't overreact! | | I know it's hard when you're stuck at the bottom of the standings, watching your rivals get superstar performances from their superstars. It feels bad to watch your early-round picks let you down. I know. | | But these players' careers didn't start three weeks ago. And three weeks just isn't a very long time in baseball – it can feel like it in the moment, but three weeks basically tells us nothing about how a player is going to perform moving forward. Lindor's case tells us that, but you can do this with literally any player – Aaron Judge had a season for the ages in 2024, but he also had multiple 15-game stretches with an OPS below .650, including one stretch last September with a .611 OPS and a 30% strikeout rate. You just didn't notice it because he had a whole season's worth of insulation from it. | | So, this is just a reminder to be patient. That doesn't mean sit on your hands – I just traded Trea Turner for Chris Sale and Nico Hoerner in a league where I needed more pitching upside, for example. But it does mean you need to make sure your opinion on your core players hasn't changed much since the start of the season. The worst thing you could do is overreact to a slow start by making a foolish trade, locking in the poor performance you've gotten so far without the upside that is sure to come from those superstars. | | And with that reminder out of the way, let's get into what you need to know from Monday's action around MLB: | | | | Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets | | | | Jonathan Aranda, 2B, Rays (46%) – If it was any other team, I'd be inclined to say that Aranda is hitting so well that the Rays have to give him a more frequent look against lefties. With a 2 for 5 showing Monday against the Red Sox that included three batted balls hit over 100 mph, Aranda is now hitting .395/.460/.698 for the season with a very manageable 20% strikeout rate. Of course, his rate stats are surely inflated by how rarely he faces lefties, and unfortunately, the Rays are the one team I don't really think is going to let him be an everyday player, which limits the ceiling. But Aranda is crushing the ball, sporting 96.8 mph average exit velocity for the season. At least when the Rays have a bunch of right-handed pitchers on the schedule, Aranda should be very useful. | | Grant Holmes, RP, Braves (76%) – If you're looking for someone to make the case that Holmes is a burgeoning ace, look to either of my FBT colleagues, both of whom like him quite a bit more than I do. Still, I can see the case for Holmes, who showcased a deeper arsenal in this one and could have had an even better line if not for two inherited runners scoring. Nine whiffs on 94 pitches is pretty underwhelming, and Holmes' secondaries haven't played quite as well as they did when he pitched primarily out of relief last season, but I think his 3.78 ERA is a reasonable projection moving forward, which should make Holmes useful in most formats. | | Sean Murphy, C, Braves (60%) – Maybe it's the glasses? Murphy sure seems to be seeing the ball well right now, and he's been making up for lost time since coming off the IL, homering for the fourth time in six games Monday – only Cal Raleigh and Logan O'Hoppe have homered more often among catchers so far this season. It's been a while since Murphy was truly an impact bat even for a catcher, but he's healthy right now and might be tapping back into the upside that once made him a true must-start option at the position. | | Landen Roupp, SP, Giants (41%) – Roupp didn't have a great start Monday, giving up four earned runs over five innings of work, though most of the damage was done in the first inning before he settled in. But man, he continues to show some really interesting skills, most notably with his curveball, which generated 15 swinging strikes on this one – out of 20 total. The repertoire outside of the curveball isn't fully refined yet, but when you have one pitch that can do that (and has a 54% whiff rate overall), that might be enough to matter for Fantasy. | | Alex Verdugo, OF, Braves (3%) – The Braves' decision to sign Verdugo just before the season didn't seem like it would matter at the time, but then you look at the lineup they trotted out there Monday, with Stuart Fairchild and Eli White starting in the corners and you realize, yeah, they're gonna need the help. Even when Ronald Acuna is healthy enough to play. It's been a while since Verdugo was much more than a Fantasy also-ran, but he still makes a ton of contact and could be a cheap source of batting average for your roto lineups whenever he gets the call, which should be some time this week. | | | | Monday's standouts | | Dylan Cease, Padres vs. CHC: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Cease simplified his approach for this one, throwing his changeup, sinker, and sweeper just 8% of the time combined – he had been throwing the changeup 10% of the time by itself entering this one. But he was commanding the slider well and didn't really need the rest of the arsenal, throwing it in the strike zone 61% of the time and still generating six whiffs. Cease will drive you crazy if you follow the upa | | Framber Valdez, Astros @STL: 4 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Valdez has alternated good and bad starts so far, but I don't think there's really anything to take away from that. In small samples, a bad start can have a much bigger impact on your numbers than a good one, and I don't think there's much reason to expect Valdez to keep scuffling. His track record is too long for me to even begin to think about panicking after a couple of bad starts. | | Joe Ryan, Twins vs. NYM: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Ryan has a 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP with 23 strikeouts to just two walks in 22 innings, and the only thing keeping his start to the season from being an unqualified success is that he has gone more than five innings just once in four starts. We can't blame that on a quick hook this time, however, as Ryan needed 101 pitches to finish the fifth inning. He managed to remain very effective despite a dip in velocity, and in this one generated 16 swinging strikes, including seven on his sweeper, which hadn't been working as well as hoped for before this one. Beyond the diminished velocity, Ryan isn't showing any lingering effects from the shoulder injury that ended his 2024. | | Shane Baz , Rays vs. BOS: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K – It might be happening. Not the way we necessarily expected it to, but Baz has now been absolutely dominant in two of his first three starts. Monday, Baz racked up 17 swinging strikes despite barely throwing his slider, which was thought to be his best pitch back in his prospect days. Maybe he doesn't need it if he's going to be sitting at 97.4 mph with his four-seamer, which generated six swinging strikes in this one; he added five more on his curveball and six on his changeup. We're up to 27 strikeouts and four walks in 19 innings of work, with three quality starts to open the season, and it's hard to ask for much more than that. | | | | Seth Lugo, Royals @NYY: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I spent most of last season waiting for Lugo to stop getting away with it, so I don't want him to spend a whole summer with him making me look dumb again. He's still throwing that ridiculously deep arsenal, and he threw 10 different pitches in this one, which is always going to help keep opposing hitters off balance. Of course, for the most part, it's a quantity over quality approach, and there's a chance the league catches up to it with more exposure, which could be what we're seeing in the early going – his strikeout has fallen from around average to 17%, a well-below average mark. He was probably lucky that none of the homers he gave up Monday were with men on base because this one could have been even uglier. Doubting Lugo went very poorly last season, but I'm still inclined to think he's more of an average-ish innings eater than anything else. | | Clay Holmes, Mets @MIN: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Holmes' changeup looked awesome today, as he generated a 59% chase rate and six swinging strikes with it. He's had some trouble putting hitters in situations where he can put them away, but when he's in two-strike counts, that can really be a weapon against lefties, with the sweeper and slider hopefully still serving as putaway pitches to righties. Efficiency is still an issue as Holmes' command comes and goes, and that's really limited his volume so far. But you can see the case for him being an actual difference-maker on nights like Monday. He might be figuring it out. | | Dustin May, Dodgers vs. COL: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – The Rockies are an extremely bad offense away from Coors Field, and May did exactly what he was supposed to. His usual trouble missing bats wasn't an issue here, as he generated 14 swinging strikes on 76 pitches, leading to his second start with more strikeouts than innings pitched. The problem? In between those two starts, he had just one strikeout over six innings. He's going to limit hard contact well enough to remain effective even when he isn't missing bats consistently, but it could limit his upside. As could the quick hook the Dodgers have had with him, as he hasn't thrown even 90 pitches in a start yet. May is worth starting in all formats moving forward, but there are going to be some limitations to how much you get out of him as a result. | | Tanner Houck , Red Sox @TB: 2.1 IP, 10 H, 11 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – Is Houck droppable? You don't want to overreact to one bad start, even a historically bad start like Houck's Monday – you've already banked the bad start if you had him in your lineup, and if he's not actually finished, you run the risk of losing any chance of making up for it. But Houck has been deeply mediocre since last year's All-Star break and isn't showing any signs of turning it around in the early going – even his lone quality start of the season saw him strike out just two in 6.2 innings of work. In 15 starts since last year's All-Star break, Houck has a 5.38 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, with 5.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Yeah, we might be done here. | | Jameson Taillon, Cubs @SD: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Taillon fell short of a third consecutive quality start, but this is still a pretty good outcome to kick off a two-start week. Taillon isn't as good as his 3.27 ERA last season suggests, but he's usually useful against the right matchups. But here's the problem: He's got the Diamondbacks and Phillies for his next two matchups. I'm probably trying to avoid it. | | Easton Lucas, Blue Jays vs. ATL: 5 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – It's a tale as old as time, or at least as old as Fantasy Baseball: A pitcher comes from completely out of nowhere with a couple of good starts, gets everyone to buy in, and then totally implodes. As it turns out, when the immediate reaction to a pitcher coming out of nowhere to find success is, "I don't know how he's getting away with this," that's usually a pretty good sign that you should avoid that pitcher. I'll admit, I added Lucas in a couple of leagues where I was desperate for pitching, but I was never under the illusion that he was likely to help. It was a roll of the dice, and now we can let him go back to waivers – hopefully without him doing too much more damage to our ratios Sunday against the Mariners. | | Austin Riley, 3B, Braves – All that I said at the top about not overreacting to slow starts? Well, after his two-homer game Monday, Austin Riley is now hitting .288 with an .859 OPS, which is basically exactly what we were expecting from him. When one game can take you from "disappointment" to "living up to expectations," that should tell you not to overreact. | | Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox – And we can almost add an "OF" next to his name, as Campbell made his fourth appearance in the outfield Monday, starting at center field, no less. He homered Monday and is up to a .328/.420/.552 line for the season, making himself an indispensable part of the Red Sox lineup. I think it's only a matter of time before he moves up in the lineup, especially with strong underlying numbers backing him up pretty much across the board. He might be a star. | | Pete Crow-Armstrong , OF, Cubs – Crow-Armstrong is in a similar spot. Entering play Sunday, Crow-Armstrong had just a .522 OPS, making the skeptics look pretty good. And now it's the believers who have their day, as he's up to a .745 OPS after going 6 for 8 with four extra-base hits over the past two games. His approach at the plate is still extremely flawed, especially for someone who doesn't hit the ball hard very often – though I will note, he did set a new career-high max exit velocity with a double at 108 mph Monday. The book isn't written one way or the other on him just yet. | | Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals – The key thing I've been keeping an eye on with Arenado is the bat speed, and that's up so far this season, from 70.7 mph to 72.1 mph. It hasn't led to a huge change in his quality of contact – his .262 expected wOBA on contact is actually lower than last season's – but he's making a ton of contact and hitting .316/.409/.526, showing that he might not be totally finished after all. I think he's a viable corner infielder right now, though there's still plenty of room for the bottom to fall out given the middling quality of contact. | | Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Giants – Yastrzemski is off to a terrific start, one he's crediting to a new approach at the plate where he is trying to focus less on hitting the ball to the pull side in the air, something he says robbed him of his ability to be a complete hitter in recent years. Which makes it especially funny that Yastrzemski is actually pulling the ball in the air significantly more often than ever before. He's off to a tremendous start, hitting .311/.436/.600, with the underlying numbers to mostly back it up. But he's also 34, hasn't been a Fantasy standout outside of the shortened 2020 season, and rarely plays against lefties, so I'm inclined to write this one off as mostly a fluke. He's fine as a hot-hand play right now, but I don't expect Yastrzemski to be a long-term contributor for Fantasy. | | News and notes | | Blake Snell resumed his throwing program Monday. He's on the IL with left shoulder inflammation and will probably need at least a few more weeks before he's ready to return. We're probably looking at a May return. | | Marcell Ozuna will be out until at least Friday due to hip inflammation. He was sent back to Atlanta for an MRI, which showed the inflammation, but apparently nothing more. | | Cody Bellinger was out of the lineup Monday as he continues to receive treatment for his sore back. He's been disappointing so far, so maybe this explains it. Of course, if the injury lingers, it might limit him all season long, too. | | Brenton Doyle has missed four straight with left quad soreness. It also came out that he experienced renewed soreness while running sprints, so I wouldn't be surprised to see an IL stint here. | | Seiya Suzuki has missed two straight with a right wrist issue. He's aiming to return by Friday, though an earlier return is possible. | | Teoscar Hernandez was out of the lineup with a stomach bug. | | Max Scherzer will visit with a doctor again in the coming days due to nagging soreness in his injured right thumb. | | Sean Manaea started playing catch from 60 feet Monday. He's still working his way back from a right oblique strain and is probably still out until June. | | Both Austin Hays and Alexis Diaz could be activated by the Reds on Tuesday along with Matt McLain. They need them all, frankly. | | Brayan Bello will make a rehab start at Triple-A Wednesday, which is expected to be his last before returning. I need to see some signs of upside in the majors before I recommend adding him in most leagues. | | Tobias Myers will make his third and likely final rehab start Friday at Triple-A. Again, he needs to prove something before I buy in. | | Ha-seong Kim will get a checkup next week from the doctor who performed his shoulder surgery back in October. Still sounds like he's aiming to return in late May. | | Giancarlo Stanton continues to hit against high velo machines and is "getting close" to facing live pitching. I still think it's a long shot we get much of anything from him, but let's keep an eye on it. | | Joe Boyle was optioned back to Triple-A after his strong start Sunday. No surprise, but he sure gave us something to look forward to whenever he gets the call again. | | Kris Bryant was placed on the IL with lumbar degenerative disc disease. That might be it for him. | | Cardinals pitching prospect Quinn Mathews was placed on the IL at Triple-A with left shoulder soreness. He had six walks in consecutive starts and then his velo was down 2 MPH in his last outing Friday, so the shoulder probably explains the struggles. I was hoping he would be a fast riser from the minors, but this probably makes it so you don't need to stash him in any redraft leagues. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | Golazo Network | The UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals continue tomorrow with a decisive second leg that will send two clubs to the Semifinals. Coverage starts at 2 PM ET, streaming exclusively on Paramount+!
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