It's expensive to be an American | Oil is back in the limelight |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for January 13th in 2:57 minutes.

🤯 It’s hard to know what to expect this year – well, unless you’re a finance pro with a knack for making predictions. So join The Macro Compass author Alfonso Peccatiello for 2022 Market Outlook on Thursday, and hear from one of those pros for yourself. Get your free ticket

Today's big stories

  1. US consumer prices rose at their fastest rate since the 1980s last month
  2. Our analyst takes a closer look at whether Nvidia could really become the biggest company in the world – Read Now
  3. US oil production is set to hit a record high next year

Spooked

Spooked

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Wednesday showed that US consumer prices rose at their fastest pace last month since the early ‘80s, but who you gonna call?

What Does This Mean?

US consumer prices were 7% higher in December than they were the same time the year before – the biggest jump in 39 years and up on November’s 6.8% gain. And sure, energy and food prices were up by 29% and 6% respectively. But if your latest bank statement made you wince, it’s not just because you filled up on snacks and cranked up the heating in December: clothing, rent, and used cars were all much more expensive too, rising by around 6%, 4%, and 37% respectively. That might go some way to explaining why core inflation – which strips out unstable food and energy prices – rose by the most since 1991.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: “All win, no lose.”
This data will only fuel expectations that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will start raising interest rates as soon as March to keep rising prices in check. Still, it’s been trying to put everyone’s minds at rest: the central bank said this week that it can bring down inflation without interrupting economic growth, since plenty of the pandemic-driven shortages should ease on their own. In other words, it mightn’t need heavy-handed rate hikes to do all the work. Investors seemed reassured, sending the US stock market up and putting an end to its five-day losing streak.

The bigger picture: The Fed’s setting an example.
The US isn’t alone: data out from the OECD – an intergovernmental economic organization – showed average inflation across the world’s richest economies was 5.8% higher in November than the same time in 2020 (tweet this). If that trend continues, other central banks could be forced to follow the Fed’s lead and raise rates this year too.

Copy to share story: https://www.finimize.com/wp/news/spooked/

🙋 Ask a question

Analyst Take

Could Nvidia Really Overtake Apple?

Could Nvidia Really Overtake Apple?
Photo of Andrew

Andrew, Analyst

What’s Going On Here?

Nvidia went from the 41st-biggest company in the US stock market two years ago to eighth-biggest in 2021.

And that’s got certain corners of the Redditsphere buzzing with speculation that Nvidia could eventually take the number one spot from Apple.

Their argument is that just as Apple reached its current massive valuation by dominating the market for smartphones, Nvidia can achieve similar dominance in artificial intelligence.

And while the “mobile economy” contributes about $4.4 trillion to global economic output, the AI market could grow to as much as $15 trillion by 2030 – up from $2 trillion in 2018.

But even then, it’s not going to be easy: Nvidia’s stock price would need to go from $280 to $1,100.

So that’s today’s Insight: can Nvidia really take the top spot off Apple?

Read or listen to the Insight here

SPONSORED BY THE MOTLEY FOOL

RIP Cable TV

According to research firm PwC, revenue from media and entertainment will hit $2.6 trillion by 2023.

And with Netflix reaching $20 billion in revenue in 2019, that leaves around $2.58 trillion of this market left to be claimed.

But if you suspect Disney or one of the many other streaming-parents will scoop it all up, The Motley Fool thinks you’d be off the mark.

It doesn’t reckon the real winner will be Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon Prime Video, but a player in the advertising market, which is 10 times the size of the online streaming industry.

In fact, The Motley Fool believes this company’s crucial technology could represent the final nail in the coffin for traditional cable.

It’s The Motley Fool’s latest stock pick: head over to The Motley Fool to find out what it is.

Get The Stock

On Again, Off Again

On Again, Off Again

What’s Going On Here?

The US just can’t move on from its first love: the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said this week that the country’s set to produce more oil in 2023 than it did before the pandemic.

What Does This Mean?

Between Covid-fueled hardship and a push toward greener energy, America’s oil industry was starting to look like its glory days were behind it. Then the slippery elixir's price jumped more than 50% last year on the back of resurgent demand, and oil companies were able to start plowing money back into their businesses. America’s producers were no exception, so much so that the EIA – a US organization that tracks industry statistics – now thinks they’ll produce a record 12.4 million barrels a day by 2023. There might be one difference this time around: analysts are expecting smaller producers to drive output, as America’s energy giants prioritize spending their cash on share buybacks and dividend payouts.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: How to lower inflation.
The extra oil should, all else equal, push the dusky nectar’s price down, with the EIA forecasting a drop in the price of Brent oil – a key oil benchmark – from $85 today to an average of $75 this year, and $68 next. That should bring down energy prices more widely, which should – given energy’s oversized influence on overall prices – help limit inflation around the world.

The bigger picture: So much for those green ambitions.
The US can’t really complain about the possibility of lower prices, but it mightn’t be particularly happy if higher oil production is responsible. The country’s recently been investing billions into clean energy technology, and it looks like there's a lot more work to be done: the EIA said it’s expecting American carbon emissions to climb 1.8% this year and 0.5% in 2023.

Copy to share story: https://www.finimize.com/wp/news/on-again-off-again/

🙋 Ask a question

💬 Quote of the day

“Learning how to be still, to really be still and let life happen, that stillness becomes a radiance.”

– Morgan Freeman (an American actor, director, and narrator)
Tweet this

SPONSORED BY ESTATEGURU

Who needs an apartment?

There are more ways to invest in real estate than simply buying your own.

You could invest in property-backed loans, for one.

EstateGuru funds development projects across Europe. And with its intuitive platform, you’ll be able to pick and choose which ones to invest in for as little as €50.

Each project is carefully vetted before it’s opened up to EstateGuru’s 100,000 investors. And over the last eight years, they’ve pocketed over €36 million in returns.

You’d be helping developers in nine European countries access fair financing too, one project at a time.

Invest in Europe’s booming real estate market: join EstateGuru’s 100,000 investors today.

Find Out More

When you support our sponsors, you support us. Thanks for that.

🤔 Q&A · RE: Oh Baby

Q: “Why is a company’s future profit worth less when bond yields are rising?”

– Tomer

A: “Let’s start at the beginning, Tomer. When you invest in a company, you’re investing in its potential to make money in the future. So when you value its stock, you’re working out what that future profit is worth today – via a process known as ‘discounting’. To discount a stock, you need to use the discount rate: the company’s cost of capital – that is, the weighted average return you’d expect to earn by buying the company’s stock or bonds. So let’s say you own a stock that has a 5% cost of capital, and the company is forecast to make $100 in one year’s time. If you discounted that profit, you’d get $100/1.05 = $95.24. That’s the amount you’d be willing to pay for the company’s future profit – and, by extension, its stock – today. Now, when bond yields rise, the company’s cost of capital rises too, meaning you’d need to apply a higher discount rate to your calculations. So let’s say the discount rate rises to 6% a year: you’d now pay $100/1.06 = $94.34 for the company’s future profit. The present value of that profit is lower, which in turn lowers the value of a company’s stock.”

Finimize

🙋 Ask a question

🌎 Finimize Live

🤔 What do you know about DAOs?

You might not have heard of DAOs, but we’re pretty sure you’ll have heard of bitcoin. Well, a lot of folk call the crypto darling the very first example of a DAO, and we all know how well that one went. So don’t miss out on the next big success story: come along to our Investing In DAOs event, and learn the tricks that’ll help you spot the next bitcoin.

How Will The Stock Market Perform In 2022?: 6pm UK time, January 13th
🇨🇳 Three Reasons To Invest In Chinese Stocks: 5pm UK time, January 18th
🏡 An Alternative Way To Invest In Real Estate: 5pm UK time, January 19th
📲 Investing In DAOs: 5pm UK time, January 25th
⚡️ How To Invest In The Energy Transition: 6pm UK time, January 26th
🎟 How NFTs Will Transform The Future Of Events: 5pm UK time, January 27th
🔥 Your Guide To New Investing Opportunities: 6pm UK time, January 28th
🚀 Will The Future Be Tokenized?: 6pm UK time, January 31st
💸 How To Earn A Passive Income From Franchise Investing: 6pm UK time, February 1st

🎯 On Our Radar

  1. DNA doesn’t grow on trees. But it does appear out of thin air.
  2. Farming, hold the farmer. Now that’s how to run your land.
  3. There’s no winning this debate. But we’ll sure try.
  4. Crabs are taking over the world. Just in case you haven’t had enough of doomsday warnings.
  5. Got the Dry January blues? Remind yourself why you started.
❤️ Share with a friendYour Referrals: 0

Thanks for reading John. If you liked today's brief, we'd love for you to share it with a friend. If they sign up on your unique link, you’ll earn some sweet swag.

Share your unique link:

https://finimize.com/invite/?kid=12T6MV

You stay classy, John 😉

We’d love to hear your thoughts. Give feedback

Want to advertise with us too? Get in touch

Image Credits:

Image credits: r2dpr - Shutterstock and Orxan Musayev - Unsplash | Simbert Brause, Silarock, Svetlana Lukienko and Thomas Bethge

Preferences:

Update your email or change preferences

View in browser

Unsubscribe from all Finimize Emails

😴

Crafted by Finimize Ltd. | Bow Bells House, Bread Street, London, EC4M 9HH

All content provided by Finimize Ltd. is for informational and educational purposes only and is not meant to represent trade or investment recommendations. You signed up to this mailing list at finimize.com or through one of our partners. © Finimize 2021

View Online