Currencies, commodities and rates: TreasuryONE Market Update
The rand was relatively stable yesterday, despite all the noise around the country ranging from Eskom through to South Africa's headline-grabbing genocide case against Israel. We are going to be in the news a lot, potentially upsetting some Western countries along the way. Brace yourselves.
This week, US Congress must make a deal to avoid a government shutdown. That would help calm investors. Also, the US will report on inflation, which may slightly increase. If it does, that would support the idea that the fight against inflation isn't over yet. Markets are still 50/50 on a March rate cut, while looking for at least five and possibly six cuts this year. The Fed is only forecasting three cuts for 2024. The rand closed yesterday at R18.60 against the dollar.
Although recent supply concerns around oil have helped prop up the price, the reality is that demand is a challenge, particularly in China. Saudi Arabia needs oil prices above $80 a barrel to meet budget, yet the company is setting a lower price for February to try and keep customers. Interestingly, February and March is a time of lower oil demand because refineries close for maintenance. Brent closed last night at $76 and WTI at just below $71.
Gold is trading at $2,033, Platinum at $948 and Palladium at $1,003.