Tomorrow (Friday): The heart of the cold air is overhead, and the one saving grace is that it calms the winds. Sunshine quickly gives way to high clouds, which thicken through the afternoon. That makes highs mainly in the upper 20s still pretty painful. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: The ongoing influx of moisture struggles to produce much in the dry air through the evening, but by late night, snowflakes are likely to finally start making it to the ground. Accumulations of a dusting to an inch seem most likely, with higher amounts in northern Maryland. The problem is that the warm air surging over the cold air at the surface is likely to quickly switch the snow to sleet and then freezing rain. This brings the likelihood of hazardous driving conditions during the pre-dawn and early morning hours. Lows range from the upper teens to mid-20s. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday could start off with some lingering snow in the northern reaches of the area while a mix of freezing rain and sleet looks likely to dominate the rest of the region. Untreated roads and sidewalks may well be extremely slick, especially early on. Most models support a switch over to cold rain by mid-morning before tapering off by midday. Some lingering drizzle is possible in the afternoon as highs top out in the 40s and remain at those levels through the night with mostly dry conditions but plenty of clouds. Confidence: Low-Medium

Southerly winds get Sunday off to a mild start and, if it weren’t for the likely early arrival of showers, a high of 60 would be in the running. As it is, most areas should make the low-to-mid-50s. The next Arctic blast is not a patient one and should start to knock temperatures down by afternoon. If the showers are slow to end (which some models show) the rain could mix with sleet and snow during the evening. Drier air does eventually win out overnight, and the next round of strong northwest winds and cold moves in. Lows are expected to be in the 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Monday is expected to see calming winds with highs no better than lower 30s despite a return of the sun. Confidence: Medium

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

4/10 (↑): We’ve got a shot to pick up a quick inch in the predawn hours Saturday before a changeover to ice and rain.