Capital Weather Gang: D.C.-area forecast: Rain this morning, then an Arctic assault midweek

Tomorrow night: High clouds begin to slowly increase ahead of the Arctic front — but no precipitation is expected. Lows range from near 30 in our colder areas to the mid-30s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

The Arctic front noses into the region Wednesday, but the balance of the day’s weather is calm. Highs settle in the mid-40s during the afternoon, with more clouds than sun. At night, as the front finally pushes through, winds increase and the cold air begins rushing into the region. We can’t rule out (20 to 30 percent chance, highest northwest of the Beltway) some scattered snow showers (little or no accumulation) as lows dip into the 20s in the area. Confidence: Medium

Thursday brings a punishing combination of wind and cold. Temperatures more or less hold steady in the 20s to near-30 degrees, while winds are sustained at 15 to 25 mph, with some higher gusts. Wind chills are in the teens much of the day and we can’t rule out a flurry as clouds whisk by from the northwest. Thursday night is very cold and winds only slowly relent. Lows range through the teens (to near 20 downtown) and wind chills are in the single digits. Confidence: Medium

The wind will have settled down by Friday, but it’s still quite cold. Despite plenty of sunshine, highs are only 30 to 35. Confidence: Medium

The forecast for Friday night and Saturday is complicated. Low pressure approaches from the west and, if precipitation breaks out at night, it is likely to start as snow or mixed precipitation. But if the precipitation waits to start until during the day Saturday, milder air may have arrived meaning any period of frozen precipitation would probably be short before a transition to rain. It’s still too soon to really pin down how much frozen precipitation to expect and the duration. Lows Friday night are in the 20s before highs Saturday may climb to near 40. Confidence: Low-Medium

Rain is likely Saturday night with temperatures near 40. The rain could linger into Sunday before the next surge of Arctic air arrives (timing is uncertain — it could be during the day Sunday or at night) with windy conditions and temperatures steady or slowly falling into the 30s. Confidence: Low-Medium

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least one inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

1/10 (→): Any snow showers late Wednesday unlikely to amount to much. Any weekend wintry mix probably not a big snow producer.