Good morning from staff writer and Thursday newsletter hombre Timothy Noah!

If you’re like me, perhaps you wonder why you keep reading about how well talks are going between President Joe Biden and Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, when we never see any progress in moving Build Back Better to the Senate floor. On Monday, for instance, the White House called the talks “constructive.” Well, Politico finally quoted “a source briefed on the conversations,” saying that “the talks between [Biden] and Manchin have been going very poorly. They are far apart.” Which we all kind of knew, but at least now somebody’s willing to say it out loud. Maybe it’s time for the talks to get less constructive. Biden “has grown tired of the elongated talks and will soon push [Manchin] to make a decision and support the legislation,” Politico reports.

Ebenezer Scrooge will soon be visited by three ghosts. You and I will be visited next year—boo!—by three interest rate hikes. That’s what Federal Reserve officials anticipate, anyway. “In September,” reports Nick Timiraos in The Wall Street Journal, “around half of those officials thought rate increases wouldn’t be warranted until 2023.” But that was before the consumer price index rose 6.8 percent on an annualized basis. Bafflingly, the Journal reports that stock futures are up, even though the stock market likes inflation and doesn’t like efforts to rein it in.

In a policy statement Wednesday, the Fed said it will wind down monthly bond-buying more quickly than previously planned. The reason is inflation, but Covid-19 remains the indicator to watch. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that “the rise in Covid cases in recent weeks, along with the emergence of the Omicron variant, pose risks to the outlook,” The New York Times reports. Hospitalizations are a better gauge, but why quibble? You want to fix this economy, end this pandemic.

Case in point: the Broadway theater, which has been reopening through the fall. Now The New York Times reports it’s canceling performances: two for Tina, a jukebox musical about Tina Turner, one for Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, one for Hamilton, four for a musical version of Mrs. Doubtfire, all because one or more members of the cast and crew tested positive for Covid. “For a show grossing $1 million a week,” the Times’ Michael Paulson reports, “each missed performance would mean a loss of about $125,000; cancellations on weekends are costlier, because that’s when many shows are most full.” The losses may be higher, actually, because Broadway houses are fuller during the holiday season.

Another case in point: Britain, where omicron is pushing daily new cases to record levels. France, where omicron hasn’t yet taken root, responded today by banning nonessential travel to and from the United Kingdom. Ten days ago, France closed its nightclubs for four weeks. Now it’s shutting out Britons. (Is that easier to do because of Brexit? Just asking.) This is very bad news for Boris Johnson, whose penchant for bullshitting charmingly through every crisis no longer helps now that a press aide has been caught on video joking about a secret Christmas party his government held last year even as Johnson was telling everybody else not to have them. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer said yesterday: “We can’t go on with a prime minister who’s too weak to lead.”

Seven years after the advent of the Flint, Michigan, water crisis, the Biden administration says it’s getting rid of every underground lead pipe in America by requiring water utilities to remove them. Up to 10 million lead pipes still carry water to homes and businesses in the United States. The Environmental Protection Agency will write the regulation. The infrastructure bill signed into law last month already commits $15 billion to removing lead pipes, and the Build Back Better bill commits $10 billion more. The White House says it will get $2.9 billion of that out to states, territories, and tribes next year. The question now, The Washington Post reports, is what deadline the EPA will set for their removal.

At NewRepublic.com, Daniel Strauss reviews five big questions raised by the latest January 6 revelations, the biggest being, “What did Donald Trump do—or not do—during those fateful 187 minutes” while Don Jr. and assorted Fox News assets begged Meadows to persuade Trump to send the insurgents home? (My best guess: He downed two Big Macs, two Filets-O-Fish, and a chocolate malted while relishing the mayhem on TV, pausing periodically to punch a triumphant fist in the air.) Matt Ford games Republican threats to terrorize congressional Democrats, if they regain the House, in retaliation for voting Mark Meadows and Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress. Ford concludes that the certainty Republicans will do this no matter what makes it “easier for Democrats and their allies to continue to pursue their constitutional oversight duties.” And Maya Wiley says President Joe Biden isn’t pushing hard enough to pass the Build Back Better bill (see lead item, above).

Thanks for reading,

—Tim Noah, staff writer

Every day, our journalists are exposing the right’s assaults on our democracy—and pushing the Democrats to go bold to preserve the republic. Here’s a special offer from The New Republic so you won’t miss their scoops and sharp analysis.

Yesterday’s political question: What do Reagan Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger and baseball great Roger Clemens have in common?

Answer: They were both indicted for perjuring themselves in congressional testimony, and both beat the rap. Clemens was acquitted in June 2012. President George H.W. Bush pardoned Weinberger on Christmas Eve in 1992, less than two weeks before Weinberger’s trial was set to begin.

Yesterday’s Christmas history question: Saint Nicholas was a real person. He was the patron saint of children (in addition to sailors, merchants, archers, and pawnbrokers). He also had a penchant for secret gift-giving. In what modern-day country did he live? It’s probably not where you think.

Answer: Saint Nicholas (270–343) lived in Turkey, in Demre, a port city on the Mediterranean coast. In Saint Nick’s day, Demre was situated in Greece, where it went by the name Myra and was part of the Roman Empire. Legend has it that Saint Nicholas heard of a father who couldn’t afford dowries for his three daughters and, under cover of night, threw gold coins into his window. This scene is a frequent leitmotif in Renaissance painting; see, for instance, this rendering by Fra Angelico.

Today’s political question: Thirty-one House members have announced they won’t run for reelection in 2022. How many are Democrats and how many Republicans? Bonus question: How many senators have announced they won’t run for reelection, and what’s the party breakdown?